Fourteen of the New England Patriots’ 17 regular-season games last year had a closing over/under total of 43 or lower, the fourth-most among all teams.
The Patriots are currently scheduled to open the 2024 season with another total of 43 or lower (42.5) in BetMGM’s NFL odds. And the public is hammering the under in what has become an increasingly often opportunity across the league.
In 2006, 73% of all NFL regular-season games closed with a low total. That dropped in 2007 (64.1%) and in each of the next five seasons, falling to 36.7% in 2012. From 2012-21, the share of 43-and-under games was above 40% only once, 2017 (46.1%), and hit lows of 12.1% in 2020 and 2021 (22.4%).
But after 22.4% in 2021, the share skyrocketed to 42.8% in 2022 and 48.9% in 2023. And as of Tuesday, 56.3% of this year’s Week 1 games have totals of 43 or lower.
The Patriots’ total for their opener at the Cincinnati Bengals opened at 42.5 and hasn’t moved. And nearly all of early betting has been on the under. As of Aug. 14, 92% of the tickets and 97% of the handle is on the under.
The under was dominant in those games in 2022 (+11.5% ROI) after struggling the previous two years (-14.4%). And it was exactly even in 2023.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for updated NFL totals throughout the season, including Patriots odds for each game.
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