Less than three weeks after the two teams met in Buffalo, a game that featured brutal wind conditions, the Patriots and Bills will meet again Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium.
This game could essentially be called the AFC East Title Game, as whichever team comes away with a win will virtually clinch the division. If the Patriots win, all they would need to do is win one of their final two games (Jacksonville and Miami), while the Bills would need to win both, or have the Patriots lose one, but they have the Falcons and Jets to close the season.
COVID-related absences could play a factor in the game as the Bills will be without slot receiver Cole Beasley, who is unvaccinated and tested positive earlier in the week. Meanwhile, the Patriots have wide receiver Kendrick Bourne on the COVID list, although there’s a chance he can play, but will be without Rhamondre Stevenson, who was added Friday.
Bills vs. Patriots
Sunday, Dec. 26, 2021
1:00, CBS
Patriots -2, over/under 43.5
3 keys to the game
Establish the run
The Patriots run game dominated the first matchup with 241 yards and Mac Jones only needed to attempt three passes. While Jones will throw more than that Sunday, the Patriots should still look to run the ball as much as it can against the Bills defense, which ranks 16th in run defense this season. It is worth keeping an eye on Damien Harris, who missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury. If the Patriots can get their run game going, it also likely means they are playing the game on their terms.
Make statement with run defense
Two of the last three weeks the Patriots have had issues stopping the run. They allowed 270 to the Titans and then 226 last week to the Colts. This needs to change down the stretch and it starts this week. Buffalo isn’t a major threat to the run the ball, but it seems like it started to make an effort to get its running backs involved last week against Carolina. Josh Allen remains a threat, although the Patriots surprisingly didn’t really see it in the first meeting.
Take advantage of turnovers
Buffalo has turned the ball at least once in each of its last seven games and it will be imperative for the Patriots to take advantage if and when it does it again. Meanwhile, the Patriots have committed a total of seven turnovers in their last seven games, which includes two last week against the Colts. Turnover differential has been one of the biggest keys to victory for the Patriots this year, as they’re 7-0 when winning the turnover battle.
Fun Facts
1. This will be Bill Belichick’s 800th career game (regular and postseason). His 47 consecutive years as an NFL coach are the most in NFL history, two more than the 45 by Dick LeBeau.
2. According to @Bostonsportsinf, the 595 rushing yards allowed the last three weeks by the Patriots are the third-most allowed over a three-game stretch in the Belichick era.
3. When rushing for more than 100 yards as a team this season, the Patriots are 9-2. When they don’t they are 0-3.
4. Nick Folk has five field goals on the year of 50 or more yards. If he gets one more this season he will set a new Patriots record for most 50-yard field goals in one season. Stephen Gostkowski also had five in 2013.
5. The Patriots are 0-4 this season and averaging 15.75 points per game when Jones attempts more than 36 passes.
Prediction (Personal season record: 9-5)
Bills 30, Patriots 27
This was a hard one to pick and regardless of who wins, it should be a one-possession game that comes down to the wire. Typically, good division teams usually split the season series and with the Patriots winning the first game, we’re going with the Bills in this one. Buffalo showed some fight beginning in the second half against the Buccaneers a few weeks ago, which is a sign it will be ready to go come Sunday afternoon and not let what happened in Buffalo impact things this time around.
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