Are you ready for Round 3?
The Patriots and Bills will meet for the third time in just over a month Saturday night on Wild Card Weekend. The two teams split the regular-season series with each team winning on the road.
Buffalo comes in as the much healthier team, as it had no players on the final injury report of the week, while the Patriots listed 13 players as questionable and have a few more on the COVID list.
The weather could play a factor, as while there won’t be any precipitation or wind, the temperatures are expected to be in the single digits with wind chills below zero.
New England enters the postseason losing three of their last four games, while the Bills have won four straight.
Patriots vs. Bills
Saturday, January 15, 2022
8:15 p.m., CBS
Bills -4.5, over/under 44
3 keys to the game
Get off to good start
The Patriots absolutely need to get off to a good start. They have fallen behind early in virtually every game over the last month and dug themselves too big of a hole to climb out of. This has also been a trend for the entire season. They are 8-1 when scoring points in the first quarter, compared to 2-6 when they don’t. Getting off to a fast start and playing with a lead allows them to play the game on their terms, which is when they are most effective.
Secondary step up
Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense picked on Myles Bryant in the last meeting at Gillette Stadium when Isaiah McKenzie finished with 11 receptions for 125 yards. The Bills didn’t have Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis in that game and the Patriots may be shorthanded in the secondary with Jalen Mills and Shaun Wade on the COVID list. New England is going to need players like Joejuan Williams, Bryant and D’Angelo Ross to step up and make a few plays.
Take care of the football
In order for the Patriots to win, they are going to need to play a mistake-free game and that starts with Mac Jones. The rookie has five turnovers in his last four games and that isn’t going to cut it this week. For the season, the Patriots are 8-0 when they win the turnover battle, compared to 1-6 when they lose it. It also feels like in addition to playing mistake free, the defense/special teams is going to need to make a big play in order for the Patriots to win.
Fun Facts
1. In the last three Wild Card games between division teams, the road team has won all three. Going back to 2014 season, the road team has won five of the last six.
2. In the history of the NFL, teams have won only eight playoff games while starting a rookie quarterback. The last rookie to win a playoff game was Russell Wilson in 2012.
3. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 2-5 in the playoffs against teams that beat them in the previous regular-season game.
4. Allen has played in five games when temperatures have been below freezing. In those games he is 3-2, completing 50% of his passes for 166 yards per game to go along with six touchdowns and seven interceptions.
5. The Bills are 4-1 against the spread this season when the over/under fails to cross 45 points.
Prediction
Bills 24, Patriots 17
The Bills simply are the more talented team and the Patriots are limping into the playoffs. We do see the cold temperatures forcing some poor play from the quarterbacks, but in the end Buffalo just has more talent. The Patriots will do enough to keep it close, but it won’t be enough.