Fans of the Patriots should be sitting pretty comfortably right now. Their team, 9-4, is atop both the AFC East and the conference and has won seven straight games prior to their Week 14 bye (the latest in NFL history). Their week off is well timed, too, giving players a chance to heal up, lick wounds and return from various prohibitive designations for the home stretch. While the Pats don’t have the No. 1 seed in the AFC locked up, most models and projections have them at least making the playoffs (FiveThirtyEight has them at a 98% chance currently). After last season’s struggles, and this season’s sluggish start, that’s reason enough to be thankful this time of year.
So if we trust the computers (always a dubious proposition) and believe the Pats will be playing football in mid-January and possibly beyond, let’s focus on the games that will both impact the Pats’ standing in the division, as well as affect their chance at retaining the top seed in the conference, which comes with the only coveted January bye week.
We’ve got our eye on that prize, and maybe more, here at TPFRG, and we bet you do too! So go ahead and pour an extra nog, write some holiday cards, decorate the tree, put your feet up by the fire and enjoy a stress-free weekend of December football, while always keeping an eye on a Pats-friendly outcome in these games.
FYI, ALSO ON A BYE - Eagles, Colts (Week 15 opponent), Dolphins (Week 18 opponent)
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (6-6) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-4) - 1 p.m.
Heard frequently in local sports media is that the Chiefs are the team the Pats would fear facing most in the postseason, especially in Kansas City, where it’s difficult for an opposing team to hear, what with the chanting and cheering and heavy meat breathing. While such concerns might not be fully warranted yet from an offensive perspective, there’s no denying that the Chiefs defense has come around, having not allowed more than 20 points over their last seven games. Add that to the faith most place in their offense led by Patrick Mahomes, which carried them to the last three AFC Championships, and there’s reason to want to be seeded higher than KC. As for Sunday? Well, this Raiders team is more inconsistent than satellite TV in a rainstorm. They’ve been through an awful lot this season, including the dismissal of their coach and the receiver who helped torch KC deep last December. I’d feel more comfortable asking a one legged man to deliver a tray of full champagne flutes across an icy driveway than asking Derek Carr be the one who puts up more than 20 in KC. Go Raiders! But don’t get your hopes up for an upset at Arrowhead.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-4) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (6-6) - 1 p.m.
That roar you heard in New England and around Pats Nation last Sunday around 7:30 p.m. was Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson missing tight end Mark Andrews for a two-point conversion that would have given the Ravens the win and continued their hold of the top seed in the AFC. Instead, it was transferred to the Patriots, who with their 7-1 conference record can’t lose it this week. So now those same Ravens, in the running for “Most Injured NFL Team, 2021”, travel to Cleveland to take on an underachieving, but well-rested Browns team looking to get themselves back into the postseason picture. Cleveland did New England a favor a few weeks back, deviating from its run-heavy approach early, allowing the Pats to go on a 45-0 run to end the Nov. 14 game. Can Baker Mayfield and Co. get their act together and get the W against the team they intercepted four times just a few weeks back and somehow still lost to? Mayfield and Jackson are playing for big new deals. Both teams want the AFC North crown. We can never get enough of John Harbaugh being upset (few do salty in the NFL better). Go Browns!
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-10) at TENNESSEE TITANS (8-4) - 1 p.m.
Jacksonville is what advanced football analytics call a supremely terrible football team, they’re bad at everything. While the Titans still wear the belt for “World Champion of Injured NFL Teams," they have had a week to rest and recuperate after their Week 12 defeat in Foxboro, which should allow them to play at whatever is full capacity. That now includes the return of wide receiver Julio Jones, who’s only played in half of the team’s games this season. The Titans are a reflection of their coach, Mike Vrabel -- tough, smart and gamers until the end. And if they can continue to get healthy while notching dubs along a reasonably mild schedule (toughest games are next week in Pittsburgh then home for San Francisco) they very well could be in the top seed mix. So, go Jags. But, there’s a better chance of Taylor Swift and Jake Gyllenhaal getting back together than a Jacksonville win. That’s a pop cultural reference for our younger readership.
BUFFALO BILLS (7-5) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (9-3) - 4:25 p.m.
Perhaps the game of the week, pitting a desperate team, fresh off an emasculating defeat on national TV, against the reigning Super Bowl champions, at home, looking to snag the top seed in their conference themselves. Imagine being Buffalo, having just gotten trampled by your mortal division foe, ceding top seed in the division with that loss, frustration abounding from sidelines to safeties. Now you’re on the road against arguably the most prolific offense in the NFL, led by the orchestrator of your nightmares the past 20 years, a man whose record as QB against you is 32-3. Facing Tom Brady after losing in excruciating fashion to Bill Belichick is what I believe the kids call “nightmare fuel," If Buffalo loses it will be 7-6, possibly on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in. Just weeks after people had them pegged for the Super Bowl. If ever there were a time for Pats fans who were hesitant to root for Brady in another uniform to put their Foxboro feelings aside and get on board with TB12 throwing tuddies to the Gronk? Now would be that Sunday. (swigs from egg nog rum bottle) Go Bucs!
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