Yes, the Patriots ended the regular season poorly with a frustrating loss Sunday in Miami. But, when it comes to the postseason the Patriots got the best-case scenario by playing the Bills on Wild Card Weekend.
Sure, the absolute best-case scenario would have been winning the AFC East and hosting the game next weekend, but the opponent would have likely stayed the same.
The Patriots don’t have to travel to Kansas City to face the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs, or go to Cincinnati and take on Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and the electric Bengals. They get to go to Buffalo and face the Bills in a place they just won a game a month ago.
When it comes to the Chiefs, there’s not even a debate. No one in the AFC wants to face the Chiefs, who can explode for 30-plus points at any given time. The debate many are having is the Bills vs. the Bengals and there shouldn’t even be one.
For starters, the Bengals just might be the better team. They were 4-2 against playoff teams this season, while the Bills were 2-4 (the Patriots were 2-3).
And then relating specific to the Patriots, they know what they are getting in the Bills. They know even when the Bills are playing their best (Week 16 at Gillette Stadium), they have a shot at winning the game.
Meanwhile, the Patriots do not know much at all about the Bengals.
How would they handle Burrow, Chase, Joe Mixon, etc.? It’s hard to say. The Week 16 game showed the Patriots can hang with the Bills when Josh Allen is playing his very best. Could the Patriots hang with the Bengals with Burrow at his very best? That answer is unknown.
Bill Belichick and the Patriots have shown over the years they are so much better off when they know what they are getting from a team, as they can devise a game plan to stop it. Facing a team with no history between the sides takes away that advantage.
In addition, the Patriots are at their best when they are running the football. While the Bills have the No. 1 ranked overall defense in the league, they are 13th when it comes to run defense. Meanwhile, the Bengals have the fifth-ranked run defense in the league.
It’s clear the Patriots’ path to victory is playing from ahead, playing on their own terms and running the football. There’s a better chance for that to happen against the Bills than the Bengals.
While they will be attempting more than three passes unlike the last time they played in Buffalo, the Patriots will look to use their physicality to their advantage against a Bills team that local reporters questioned their physical toughness at one point in the second half of the season.
And not that the Patriots are thinking about anything but this week, being the No. 6 seed and facing the Bills this week would help avoid the Chiefs with a win. If the Patriots beat the Bills they likely would face the No. 1 seeded Titans, who they already beat this year. If they were the No. 5 seed and won, they likely would have gotten the Chiefs in the divisional round.
The Patriots may not have entered the playoffs the way they would have hoped, but in terms of a matchup things certainly did go their way.
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