After Sunday’s win over the Jets, the Patriots are now 4-4 and sit just half a game out of a wild card spot in a crowded AFC playoff race.
If they’re going to actually make the playoffs, they’re going to have to go through arguably the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL the rest of the season.
In terms of simple opponent winning percentage, the Patriots’ remaining schedule ranks fourth at .596. But based on at least one more advanced metric, the Patriots actually have what is easily the toughest schedule the rest of the way.
PFF’s Timo Riske shared a couple graphs that show how all 32 teams stack up in terms of weighted EPA based on offensive and defensive strength, and then how each team’s remaining schedules rate using those team strength ratings.
Yep, that’s the Patriots way up in the top right, facing the toughest defensive schedule the rest of the way and one of the toughest offensive schedules as well.
The Patriots’ next two games -- against the 3-4-1 Colts this Sunday and then a rematch against the 5-3 Jets after the bye week -- are ones they’re almost certainly going to have to take advantage of. After that, they have the 6-1 Vikings and 6-1 Bills.
Their only two games against teams currently under .500 from Thanksgiving on are at Arizona and at Las Vegas, two teams that could still end up being dangerous by then if they figure things out. The Patriots end the season with a tough three-game stretch against the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills.
Basically, the Patriots are almost certainly going to have to beat at least a couple teams currently above them in the standings in order to make the playoffs. If they do, fans are probably going to feel a bit better about their chances than they do now.
But that won’t be easy for a team that has only beaten one team with a winning record so far this season (the Jets). It’s certainly possible that the Patriots struggle down the stretch just like they did last year, when they lost three of their last four games and then got crushed by Buffalo in the playoffs.
Riske's simulations, for what it's worth, give the Patriots a 35% chance of claiming one of the three wild card spots.
