Sunday’s game in Carolina is a battle of two 4-4 teams, but it seems like the Patriots and Panthers are going in different directions.
The Patriots have won two straight games, including their best win of the year last week on the road against the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Panthers beat the Falcons last week, but they lost four straight games prior to that.
Carolina lists starting quarterback Sam Darnold as questionable with a concussion and shoulder injury. If he cannot play, P.J. Walker will be under center. And then running back Christian McCaffrey came off injured reserve this week, but it doesn’t mean he will play. The Panthers have 21 days to activate him. Obviously, he’s a huge difference-maker if he does indeed take the field.
Head coach Matt Rhule said he’s “hopeful” his running back plays.
It’s also the Stephon Gilmore Game with the cornerback facing his former team, but he may not have much of a role since Rhule said he expects him to only play on third down like last week in his debut (roughly 20 snaps).
Patriots vs. Panthers
Sunday, Nov. 7, 2021
1:00, CBS
Patriots -3.5, over/under 41
3 keys to the game
Limit big plays
This becomes an even bigger deal if McCaffrey plays, but Carolina wide receiver D.J. Moore is averaging 12.9 yards per reception and can score from anywhere on the field. And despite having a historically bad season, Robby Anderson has been a deep threat over the years, too. Coming off a game where it allowed several big plays against the Chargers, the Patriots defense needs to make sure it doesn’t again.
Mac Jones' composure
Mac Jones had his worst game of the year last week in Los Angeles and facing a defense like Carolina’s, he could be in for another tough day. The Panthers come into the game with the No. 2 ranked defense overall, as well as against the pass, and then fifth in points allowed. The rookie should expect to be frustrated at times and the biggest thing in a game like this is to not turn the ball over. Taking care of the ball will be incredibly key, as Carolina’s offense should have trouble scoring, so as long as the Patriots limit the turnovers they will have a good chance of winning the game.
Take advantage of turnovers
Carolina has turned the ball in over five straight games and has 24 on the season, which is 24th in the league. The Patriots defense made the most of them last week in Los Angeles and it should look to do it again this week. New England may have issues moving the ball against the Panthers defense, so some short fields and even a defensive score would help.
Fun Facts
1. If Damien Harris has a rushing touchdown, it will be for the fifth straight game. This would tie for the third-most consecutive games with a rushing touchdown in team history. Curtis Martin holds the team record with seven.
2. New England is looking for its first three-game win streak since it started the 2019 season 8-0, which spans 32 games.
3. Jones’ best QB rating this season is when he targets Hunter Henry (123.2), while his worst is when targeting Nelson Agholor (50).
4. Harris has 517 yards rushing on the year, while the next highest Patriot is Rhamondre Stevenson with 74 yards.
5. Per Pro Football Focus, Matthew Judon had 10 pressures against the Chargers. He’s up to 39 on the year, which is 5th in the NFL.
Prediction
Patriots 27, Panthers 21
We expect the Patriots to continue their momentum from the last two weeks and emerge as a clear playoff contender in the AFC. Carolina will have trouble scoring against the Patriots defense, especially if McCaffrey doesn’t play. It feels like if the Patriots can get into the mid-to-high 20s, they have a very good shot at winning the game. Some may think this is a letdown spot for the Patriots, but we didn’t get that sense over the course of the week.