The Patriots’ rushing offense took a massive dip following Damien Harris’ hot start to the season against the Dolphins and Jets.
In the ensuing matchups with the Saints and Buccaneers, Patriots running backs averaged less than two yards per carry on only 16 attempts. Not a single Patriots offensive linemen was top-ten in run block win-rate, while the unit as whole planted its flag in the bottom five of the league run block win-rate rankings.
Throughout 2021, the Chargers’ defense has been bottom five in just about any run defense stat fit to print: 31st in yards allowed, last in yards per attempt, last in yards per game, and 31st in expected points added by their rushing defense.
It only makes sense that the Patriots would work to ramp up their rushing attack leading up into the matchup with the Chargers, and they did so despite rolling out a makeshift offensive line the last three games. The running backs unit as a whole is up over five yards per carry the last three games. Despite collecting injuries like it’s going out of style, the offensive line has steadily improved as well. Every member of the offensive line hit their lowest Pro Football Focus run blocking grade of the season against the Buccaneers, but have ramped up to well above average, or in Michael Onwenu’s case, elite levels. Ted Karras was noticeably rusty in his first start of the season against the Texans, but recorded his highest run blocking grade of his four starts this past Sunday as he, David Andrews, and Shaq Mason made easy work of the New York Jets' interior defensive line.
Say what you want about the Jets, but just because the team as a whole is viewed as being horrible doesn’t mean every single member or unit of the team is abysmal. The Jets’ run defense is their bright spot. Foley Fatukasi was the best run stop defensive tackle in the NFL through six weeks, but the Patriots’ offensive line bullied him into submission in week six. Bryce Huff and Shaq Lawson were in the top ten in run stop win rate for edge defenders prior to the game with the Patriots, and the two of them were likewise negated. A unit that garnered the fourth-highest run stop win rate against the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and the duo of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams was hopeless against the Patriots.
That’s great news for New England, as two clear paths to beating the Chargers have emerged: go on long offensive drives and keep Justin Herbert off the field and thus reduce L.A.’s margin of error to the width of a hair, or to rip explosive runs and force the Chargers to keep up offensively.
Here are three more aspects of the Los Angeles Chargers to keep an eye on this Sunday...
He Said He’s A Slater Boi
One crucial cog to the Chargers keeping up with the Patriots offensively is L.A.’s offensive line. A unit that saw the addition of Rashawn Slater in the NFL Draft and former Green Bay Packers center Corey Linsley in free agency was expected to finally offer maximum protection for Justin Herbert in 2021 -- and they did! ...for about two weeks.
Slater was nails against Washington in Week 1 and Dallas in Week 2, but put up particularly bad performances against the Chiefs, Browns, and Ravens. Linsley has been fine, while his former Packers teammate Bryan Bulaga went on injured reserve after aggravating the back injury that caused him to miss six games for the Chargers last season. Right guard Oday Aboushi was on a roll, but tore his ACL against the Browns.
L.A.’s offensive line has not been abysmal, but it can’t keep up with elite pass rushers and could be the team’s achilles heel as they try to make a playoff run.
Herbert The Unhurt
But is Justin Herbert so good that it doesn’t matter if his offensive line is subpar?
There’s nothing new to say about Herbert. He’s incredible. He’s elite. He’s going to be a top-ten quarterback in the NFL for the next 15 years. There’s no need to rattle off all the stats that back up any of those statements.
One aspect that separates Herbert is that, at times, he’s been able to overcome shoddy offensive line play. Just a few weeks ago against the Browns, Aboushi went down early in the game and Myles Garrett had his way with Rashawn Slater. Partly due to how quick he got the ball out, the sixth-fastest of any quarterback in Week 5, Herbert threw 398 yards and four touchdown passes as the Chargers offense scored 47 points.
Herbert overcame a subpar offensive line game against maybe the best pass rushing defensive line in the league. He may have to do it again against the Patriots.
The Donald
The Chargers elected to let tight end Hunter Henry walk this past offseason after applying the franchise tag to the 2016 second-round pick for the 2020 season. LA has taken a “present-future” approach to replacing Henry’s production in their offense: they signed veteran tight end Jared Cook to a one-year deal this past offseason while they continue to develop second-year tight end Donald Parham and rookie Tre’ McKitty. Former Patriot Stephen Anderson is also on the roster.
Parham appears to be the project for L.A,, as the 6-foot-8, 257-pound walking tree has averaged about 40 snaps per game this season. Parham saw his season low of 27 snaps in the blowout loss against the Ravens because the Chargers abandoned the run and about half of Parham’s snaps the first six weeks of the season have been in a run blocking role. His passing production has been minimal in what is essentially a tight end by committee approach, only seeing more than two targets once this season.