By all accounts, rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe has done everything the Patriots have asked him to do in his two outings this year, including last Sunday’s 29-0 curb-stomping of the Detroit Lions.
He has kept the ball moving down the field while keeping it out of the other team’s hands — Nelson Agholor can’t say the same, unfortunately — and showed noticeable growth in his comfort as a pocket passer from the Green Bay game to now. The fourth-round pick has also earned praise from Bill Belichick about the way he sees the game for a young quarterback.
But he’s still not the best quarterback on the team. Mac Jones is.
At no point has Zappe demonstrated the obvious sense of seizing the alpha role in the quarterback room the way Jones did last year as a rookie, and the Patriots don’t seem that interested in giving him a chance to do so.
Want some proof? Just look at what they’re being asked (and allowed) to do.
Here’s a quick contrast for you: Zappe has almost the same percentage of his passes behind the line of scrimmage as Jones does throwing the ball 20 or more yards down the field.
More generally, about 70 percent of Zappe’s passes come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage compared to about 60 percent for Jones. The difference: more of Jones’ pass attempts in that range are, well, actual passes.
The contrast in their average depth of target (aDOT) is even more jarring.
Jones’ aDOT of 10.4 remains fourth-highest in the NFL during his absence from the field — a stark change from last year’s 8.3. Zappe, meanwhile, sits at 7.1, good for 36th in the league.
Now, one should note quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert have an even lower aDOT than Zappe does while some bad quarterbacks (like Mitchell Trubisky) rank among the league leaders in that stat. So simply pushing the ball down the field doesn’t guarantee your offense will be good (especially if you’re a bad quarterback like Trubisky) nor does keeping things short and quick mean you’re doomed to fail.
That said, you might be more inclined to trust the likes of Rodgers or Herbert to score points using that kind of approach consistently than Zappe, who only led the offense to one touchdown drive against a bad Detroit defense.
Whether it’s a matter of trust or Zappe’s own desire to keep things safe (or both), he and Jones aren’t playing the same game at quarterback. Look no further than the Patriots' first drive of the second half last week -- one of the situations that typically has yielded the best results for the team this season. Once Zappe got the Patriots into the red zone, the plays went like this: run to Rhamondre Stevenson (no gain), screen to Stevenson (-1 yard) and pass to Kendrick Bourne at the line of scrimmage (1 yard). That's not playing to score touchdowns; that's playing not to lose.
And though Jones’ approach has yielded more turnovers — something he needs to avoid more in the future — it’s also yielded far more explosive plays, which generally makes it more likely you’ll get points out of a drive. The Patriots will need that when they face better teams down the line, and it doesn’t seem like they want to see whether Zappe can open things up. They're just asking him not to screw things up. He hasn't, to his credit, but that's exactly "special" play.
Plus, if you think Zappe’s performance last Sunday was special, ask yourself this: don’t you think Jones, who helped lead two 50-burgers against bad Jets and Jaguars teams last year, could’ve done better than one touchdown drive and five field goals against the lowly Lions?
The bottom line: if the Patriots want any chance of hanging with the likes of Miami, Buffalo or Cincinnati down the line this season, it’s got to be Mac Jones at the helm attacking opposing defenses.
New England has all but told you with the way they’ve handled Zappe this year that they feel the same way. If Jeremy Fowler's latest report for ESPN is true, "Zappe Hour" might be about to end as soon as this weekend.
