This is a big one, and a big one for both teams.
With the Patriots coming into the game against Buffalo at 2-4 and losers of three straight, the Patriots are desperate for a win. Cam Newton even called it a must-win game when speaking on Thursday. A loss would really hurt their chances when it comes to winning the division as they would fall three games back in the loss column.
And then for the Bills, they have a chance to really bury the Patriots and take a big step towards winning the division for the first time since 1995.
It is worth noting the weather will play a big factor, as showers are in the forecast and winds expected to be 20 mph with gusts in the 40-50 mph range.
Patriots vs. Bills
Sunday, Nov. 1, 2020
1:00, CBS
Patriots +4, over/under 41
3 keys to the game
Overcome injuries
The Patriots will be without Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and possibly Stephon Gilmore, so a number of players will need to step up. It’s really bad at wide receiver, as the only receivers on the active roster are Damiere Byrd, Jakobi Meyers, Gunner Olszewski and Matthew Slater. It’s likely a practice squad player or two will be signed to the active roster, or at least elevated for the game. With how Newton has been playing and wind in the forecast, it’s likely the passing game will not be big of a factor for the Patriots. On the other side of the ball, JC Jackson will assume the No. 1 cornerback role and then Jason McCourty and Jonathan Jones will get more playing time. This is the deepest position on the team, so it would seem like the team can get by without their best corner. Gilmore did not practice Friday and is listed as questionable.
Running game
This will decide the game. If the Patriots can run the ball well and keep Buffalo in check on the ground, they have a great chance of winning the game. On the flip side, if they can’t get things going on the ground and can’t control the Bills’ run game, it could be a long day. Fortunately for the Patriots, Buffalo really struggles in defending the run, as it is ranked 22nd and have allowed 100 or more yards in three straight games. New England doesn’t really have the greatest run defense, but the Bills aren’t exactly all that threatening at that position and we wouldn't be shocked to see them throw the ball maybe more than they should.
Start fast
The Patriots need to get off to a good start and cannot play from behind as they aren’t built to do so, but also the thought of them falling to 2-5 could potentially put them into shutting it down and playing like they did at the end of last week. The Patriots do not have any offensive points in the first quarter this season, and that needs to change this week. If the New England defense can force a Josh Allen turnover early, that could give the Patriots defense some confidence it desperately needs.
Fun Facts
1. Bill Belichick is 18-2 in Buffalo since 2000, which are more wins than any Buffalo head coach has at home in that time.
2. Newton has gone two straight games without a passing touchdown. He’s never gone three straight in the same season during his career.
3. The Patriots are on pace for 40 penalties on the season. Since 2000, the fewest penalties in a season is 55 by the Falcons in 2012.
4. Since 2000, the Patriots are 53-2 in the regular season when they have a 100-yard rusher.
5. This is the first time the Patriots have been an underdog in an AFC East game since Week 2 of 2015 in Buffalo. The 30-game streak as betting favorite in division games was easily the longest active streak in the NFL.
Prediction
Patriots 21, Bills 17
Buffalo may be the better team on paper, but it’s just a gut feeling that the Bills are going to make some mistakes and allow the Patriots to win the game. We do expect the Patriots to have a solid day running the ball with the Bills struggling in that department and the Patriots having their offensive line close to full strength. This may be an ugly game, but that could be what the Patriots need to get back on the winning track.
