It’s draft season. Everyone can dream, right?
Now that the Chicago Bears are putting the No. 1 pick up for sale — not that it wasn’t before — there are even some asking whether or not the Patriots should just go for broke and sell the farm to get the quarterback of their choice. Why not give Bill O’Brien more chances to build with Bryce Young after their last few years at Alabama?
Or if not that, why not just move up a few spots to snag whichever top quarterback falls in the draft? Mac Jones is anything but established, and not a few fans and media folks are on the “anyone but Mac” train.
Here are three reasons that’s not going to happen.
-Give (too much) to get (not enough)
Two years ago, before the Patriots took Jones 15th overall, the San Francisco 49ers traded up from No. 12 to third overall and took Trey Lance.
The price: San Fran’s first-round picks in 2021, 2022 and 2023 and a 2022 third-round pick.
That was just what it took to move up nine spots and not even to the top pick. That would bring an even bigger surcharge. We could be talking at least two more Day 2 draft picks in addition to the three total first-rounders, like the Rams had to do in 2016 to get Jared Goff No. 1 overall.
Trading one first-rounder or maybe a couple Day 2 picks for Tee Higgins and signing him to $100 million extension (which you could ostensibly get out around the end of Jones’ rookie deal) is one thing.
Betting the farm on a young quarterback who isn’t a truly generational talent and crippling your ability to build around him with blue-chip talent over the next three years of his rookie deal? That feels like a worse wager than simply building better around the quarterback you already have.
For every Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.m, there are two or three Sam Darnolds or Jordan Loves. Be careful what you wish for.
-Recent history says stay the course
How quickly we seem to forget that the Eagles and Dolphins were facing the same pressure to ditch their former Alabama quarterbacks in the same manner these last few years.
Plenty of voices were clamoring for the Eagles to take a quarterback to replace Jalen Hurts in 2021 when they had the 10th pick in the draft and Jones was on the board as was Justin Fields.
Instead, Philadelphia took DeVonta Smith to give Hurts a trusted target. Then, the Eagles doubled down the next season by trading for and paying A.J. Brown. Hurts responded by taking them to the Super Bowl and silencing doubters everywhere with a monster performance.
Tua Tagovailoa dealt with the same talk in only for Miami to similarly draft Jaylen Waddle one year and trade for Tyreek Hill the next. If Tagovailoa’s concussions hadn’t ruined his season, he would’ve been an MVP candidate.
The bottom line: just because a guy isn’t a god within his first two years in the league doesn’t mean you should just “reset the rookie clock,” no matter what the analytics say.
If you’re not going to invest in your assets, how can you expect them to work for you? More than that: what would make you think the next round would go better?
Do the work to help out your quarterback instead of hoping you luck into a miracle worker. Otherwise, you’ll be waiting for a long time.
-The Patriots aren’t doing it anyway
This isn’t just a “the-Patriots-will-just-trade-down” point.
Think about it: if New England really wanted to go all-in on a quarterback with star potential, they could’ve done so two years ago.
I’m not talking about trading up to No. 1 to take Trevor Lawrence; offering the keys to the heaven itself might not have been enough to move Jacksonville off of such a rare prospect.
Justin Fields, the second-best prospect in that draft, was within striking distance until Chicago traded up nine spots to steal him at No. 11 overall. If the Patriots had been willing to move off their boring prototype for the quarterback position, they could’ve had their game-changer right there.
They didn’t want him and stuck with Jones instead.
In the end, Jones fits this team better than Fields would have, but there’s no doubt who the better football player is. New England just didn’t think it was worth it to move up when it could sit tight and take a quarterback who ostensibly just won’t screw things up.
If the Patriots weren’t going to bend on that principle two years ago, why would they do it now? They have a quarterback, and the only two that would might actually be better than Jones right now (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud) won’t be within reach at No. 14.
As much as you might want the Patriots to move off of Jones, you might as well resign yourselves to the fact that it’s not happening this year via an external candidate. Bailey Zappe is your best hope, I guess.
