1 -- Bill Belichick is heading into his 23rd year running the Patriots draft room.
In eight of the first 22 years on the job, New England’s war room boss has traded down in the first round or out of the round all together, that trend picking up steam since 2007.
Given the landscape heading into the 2022 NFL Draft on April 28, it’s not hard to envision Belichick adding to that somewhat frequent spring tradition once again.
First of all, the facts tell us that Belichick has had success in his downward deals on draft night. Guys like Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Rob Gronkowski, Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan and most recently Kyle Dugger landed in New England via trades down or out of the first round. It’s a pretty impressive list, especially considering the deals included other assets as well.
Second, this year’s draft is generally considered more deep than top-heavy which could play into a team like the Patriots with a variety of needs on both sides of the ball seeking extra picks on the second or third day of the selection process rather than one sexy first-round selection.
Though trading down in the first round or even out of the round is not generally met with positive reviews from fans or media, it can be a valuable path for a team needing to inject cost-controlled youthful athleticism across its roster. Don’t be surprised if it’s a road Belichick considers taking yet again this coming draft night.
2 – There is at least one trade down scenario for New England that would seemingly be a bit of a nightmare for many a fan. That’s one that includes the wide receiver position. With New England still in need of a true go-to No. 1 receiver for Mac Jones to develop with in the coming years, many are hopeful of that player coming via this year’s draft. If Belichick were to decide to trade down from No. 21 overall while an option like Alabama playmaking wide receiver Jameson Williams is on the board it would be almost universally panned throughout Patriot Nation. Of course once upon a time most wanted Belichick to take Michigan wide receiver David Terrell over Georgia defensive lineman Richard Seymour back in to 2001 and we all know how that worked out.
3 – Another factor that might play into the Patriots wanting to trade down or out of the first-round is the fact that eight teams currently do not have a first-round pick in this year’s draft. Depending on how the first half of the first round plays out, one or more of those teams might get a hunger for getting back into the first night draft action. New England sitting just outside the top 20 picks might be an attainable target spot for those teams, especially with Belichick’s affinity for wheeling and dealing of draft picks over the years.
4 – While the Patriots may be a candidate to trade down, it wouldn’t be surprising to see other teams deal to try to get ahead of New England on draft night. Both Green Bay (No. 22 and No. 28) and Kansas City (No 29 and No. 30) are teams who could also be in pursuit of high-end wide receiver talent with the ammo to leapfrog the Patriots for a potential top pass catcher.
If the Patriots indeed are hoping for a top receiver prospect to fall to No.
21, Belichick must also be conscious of other teams potentially looking for a similar player. Might that actually require New England to trade up slightly?
5 – Sitting at No. 21, New England is in a rather interesting spot. Not only is it just outside the somewhat arbitrary line of the top 20 prospects, but four of the six selections directly ahead of the Patriots belong to just two teams. The Eagles (No. 15 and No. 18) and Saints (No. 16 and No.
19) will play a huge part in what the draft board actually looks like when the time comes to pick or trade out the of the slot.
6 – For what it’s worth, the Patriots have actually picked at No. 21 overall in the first round rather often over Belichick’s time in New England, four times actually. New England landed tight end Daniel Graham (2002), defensive tackle Vince Wilfork (2004), running back Laurence Maroney (2006) and Chandler Jones (2012) in the slot it currently holds in this month’s draft.
7 – Six receivers were selected in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft, led by No. 4 overall pick Amari Cooper. Thanks to the recent trade with the Dolphins that landed DeVante Parker, three of those six first-round picks have spent time in New England. While Parker and 2015 Philadelphia pick Nelson Agholor are currently on the roster, 2015 Indy first rounder Phillip Dorsett spent three somewhat productive seasons in New England from 2017-19. It’s worth noting that Cooper was actually also available via trade this offseason, when he was dealt from Dallas to Cleveland.
