1 - Now that the surprise factor of the Patriots’ opening week road win in Cincinnati has dissipated and we’re back to reality, we should be able to let the field turf pellet dust settle and properly assess this team. While throngs of fans aren’t expected to overtake the stadium Sunday, causing a scene of mass hysteria, to get a first glimpse of these Pats, there definitely should be an uptick in excitement and anticipation for the home opener. But will fans get to see a similar version of what they saw last week?
In our inaugural Sunday 7 of the season, we asked what kind of team we thought these Patriots would be. Well, in just one game’s time, not to be part of the Week 1 Overreaction Machine, but it feels like we got a pretty good glimpse into what kind of team they plan to be, or might already be. These Pats, not so talented on paper but tough where it’s played, look to be similar to the team of decades ago…back when they hadn’t yet won a Super Bowl and people overlooked them due to recent struggles and a lack of first class talent. If early indications are to be considered, then these Patriots seek to be a tough, hard hitting, street fighting, violent, throwback, old school, ground and pound, smash and dash football team.
The modern NFL is geared toward more teams with exotic schemes, fancy formations and unique play designs that allow for world class athletes to make plays and showcase their talents. The Patriots may not have a number of world class talents and their formations don’t seem unique or exotic. What they do have is a strong middle class of experienced veterans who aren’t afraid to mix it up, get their jerseys dirty and make contact. They’ll try to minimize mistakes, force the other team into making them, and capitalize on every opportunity afforded them in likely low-scoring affairs since they don’t have the firepower to win in a proverbial shootout.
Sounds familiar to many who have been following the team since before the Lombardi Trophies started appearing as often as Kenny Chesney at Gillette Stadium. Ironic to many that the team Jerod Mayo is establishing reminds people of the teams assembled by his predecessor, Bill Belichick.
Those looking for proof on both sides of the ball can be rewarded with two stats from Week 1. On offense, Rhamondre Stevenson, who had his best game as a pro, carried the ball 25 times for 120 yards and a touchdown. The most telling stat is that 118 of those 120 yards came AFTER first contact. While that intense manner may not be sustainable (one of the words of the week locally), it does show a commitment by the backs, line, coaches and all to a commitment to winning in an old-fashioned manner.
Funny thing is how overt the Pats have been in advertising their tone and style of football. Being a run-first team is how Alex Van Pelt said he believed scoring and winning is done on offense when he was hired by the Pats. Jerod Mayo hasn't been shy about saying he believes the Pats are a running team, going so far as to double down this week, saying in his weekly Monday appearance on WEEI, “I don’t care if you feel like I’m giving out gameplan secrets or anything like that. I’m telling you we’re going to run the ball. You’ve got to stop us.”
Some may call that foolhardy, or arrogant. Others may say it’s gamesmanship, pointing to a few days later when Mayo spoke about “agility” as opposed to “rigidity” in regards to game-planning, acknowledging that the Pats know they’ll be tested to throw the football and can’t just run 60 times like they did in the famous wind game in Buffalo back in December 2021.
When the Pats do throw, who will be the Rhamondre of targets, and who will be the playmaker through the air remains to be seen. Jacoby Brissett only threw for 121 yards in CIncinnati as the game plan called for a very conservative, physical approach. But don’t tell the coach that they didn’t throw because they couldn’t!
Though it should be noted Brissett was pressured on over 44% of his dropbacks, another telling stat on offense that will have to be addressed and cleaned up going forward. The Pats will be forced to throw, unless they dictate their will, though that is unlikely against a more stout Seahawks front (more on that in a bit). Players like David Andrews, who hopes the fans are charged up Sunday for the home opener, will be relied on heavily to lead a younger line that will likely see some changes and variations in Week 2, now that guard Sidy Sow has been out of practice again this week. Rookie guard Layden Robinson (questionable heading into Sunday with a hip injury), who Andrews and Mayo have been complimentary of, will have to continue to be as if not more physical than their opponents, even if the opponent knows what’s coming. As offensive line coach Scott Peters told Patriots.com this week, “It’s a hands league.”
The other Week 1 stat that should give fans heart, and make opponents take pause, is how good the Patriots’ tackling was.
Wrapping people up, controlling gains, being physical and fundamentally sound on all defensive levels is what people expected from this Pats defense, even in the absence of Matt Judon (traded to Atlanta) and Christian Barmore (still on IR due to blood clots.) Those expecting the defense to regress due to the absence of playmakers, or long time head coach and defensive mastermind Bill Belichick should have left Sunday’s game pleasantly surprised. But when you have significant defensive continuity, like former D-Line coach DeMarcus Covington taking over as coordinator, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised. The coach’s background is on defense, and he’s not shy about getting in there and demonstrating how he wants his defense to play.
Of course it also helps when you have potential defensive stars begin to make their leap to the forefront, like defensive end/game wrecker Keon White, who spoke postgame of how much the team believes in their coach and is willing to “run through a brick wall” for him, a sentiment echoed previously by defensive tackle Davon Godchaux.
White is one of the many young defenders, along with cornerback Christian Gonzalez, that’s expected to anchor a Patriots defense that will have to keep a likely lower scoring team in as many games as possible. Doesn’t seem like a challenge this team would back down from.
Now that teams have an idea what to expect from the Pats, and now that the team has defied the oddsmakers and already won a game most projected they’d lose, it’s up to the players and coaches to live up to potentially altered expectations. Mayo himself said the Pats had an uneven Wednesday practice, but that the energy was back where it needed to be Thursday.
So now we know: the Pats will try weekly to be the tougher, stronger team that can sustain their energy and physicality for four quarters. Last week in the closing moments players were heard shouting, “Take ‘em to the hill!”, a reference to the hills the Patriots run behind Gillette Stadium as part of their conditioning. If the Pats can hang in and take teams “to the hill” then the season could showcase the development many were hoping to see from a squad with youth at many positions, as well as an unexpected entertainment factor many thought could be lacking. Nobody will mistake this team with the 2007 version, but if they fight to the finish every week then they should make their fans, who’ve been longing for something to get behind, proud once again.
Oh, and if fans or the team are looking for any extra edge or motivation Sunday? The Seahawks, a 3.5 point favorite on the road, were picked to win outright by all 10 NFL Network analysts. Pats got that underdog in them. Let’s see if they can find the other kind of dog when it matters most Sunday.
2 - While some of the emotional focus Sunday will be on the 10th reunion of the Patriots’ Super Bowl 49 winning team, a game where they once again pulled victory out of the jaws of defeat with one of the greatest plays in NFL history on defense (there’s a reason Malcolm Butler will be the season’s first Keeper of the Light at Gillette Stadium), the current team will have their sights set on and their hands full with a very physical Seattle Seahawks team. A Seahawks team that is rather similar to these Patriots in many ways.
Both teams are coached by young defensive minded rookies who are replacing future hall of fame legends that were in their 70’s. Jerod Mayo (38) replaced his mentor and former coach Bill Belichick, and Seahawks coach Mike McDonald replaced Pete Carroll on the sidelines in Seattle. While Mayo was working as a defensive coach for the Patriots and was promoted to head coach in January, McDonald was considered one of the bright young defensive minds of the game as he coordinated the defense for the Baltimore Ravens before getting the nod in Seattle.
Both teams look to play sound, aggressive defense paired with a run-heavy offensive attack to control the game. Each team also has a veteran QB that can make plays with their legs if necessary, playing in front of a young, physically gifted QB that played college ball at the University of North Carolina (rookie Drake Maye for the Pats versus his good friend, Sam Howell, for the Seahawks.) Feels almost like one of those Spider-Man meme games at this point.
Why Bill Belichick was replaced by his former player and assistant is a matter to legislate another day (though hopefully we’re moving past that at this point.) Why Carroll was ultimately replaced seems to be for the finer defensive points, as was pointed out by Seahawks Forever host Dan Viens this week. The Seahawks were one of the worst defenses in the NFL in 2023, finishing in the bottom half of the league in virtually every stat. In comes McDonald with his aggressive approach from Baltimore, along with some key free agent acquisitions and re-signings, and there’s a feel he’s turned things around for the better. The Seahawks held onto defensive line anchor Leonard Williams on a lucrative three year deal, then added veteran lineman Jonathan Hankins, linebackers Kerome Baker from Miami and Tyrel Dodson from Buffalo, as well as safeties K’Von Wallace from Tennessee and Rayshawn Jenkins from Jacksonville. These signings, paired with some of their own solid secondary players like corners Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon (a 2023 first round pick himself like Christian Gonzalez), have given the Seahawks defense some renewed life and gith, as was witnessed in their Week 1 26-20 victory at home against the Denver Broncos where they forced three turnovers, two INTs against rookie QB Bo Nix.
McDonald has given the Seahawks some focus and new energy, just like Mayo has in New England. Each team will look to maintain that newfound energy and set a physical tone Sunday in front of the Foxboro faithful in the Pats home opener. Should make for a charged environment and a very hard fought game with very similar styles of play.
3 - Pats fans waiting to get a glimpse of the future will have to wait longer as rookie QB Drake Maye is still developing under “The Plan” we’ve heard about but not learned much about. That is until this week.
Confirming a report surfaced last Sunday by Evan Washburn of CBS, Jerod Mayo said that Maye is getting 30% of the first team reps and snaps in practice. Without all 32 teams practice reports available, one would have to surmise that’s more than most backup QBs get. But then again, most backups aren’t being steadily groomed and prepared to eventually take over under center. The Pats continue to start Jacoby Brissett, believing he gives the team the best chance to win with a conservative approach out the gates, all the while doing everything they can to prep Maye for when they feel the time is right. And should injury not necessitate that call then it’s going to likely be longer than most expected or wanted to see the hotshot third overall pick start slinging it for New England.
Maye understands he still has a lot to learn, while serving as a valuable component of the preparations each week for the starters. Last week he got early week first team reps, then emulated Joe Burrow in game prep, all of which he says is extremely valuable (as told to Evan Lazar of Patriots.com in a great rundown of what Maye’s grooming has been like thus far.) The rookie from UNC even noted that Brissett was with Seahawks backup Sam Howell, who Maye played behind in college, last season in Washington, and believes the two act alike.
There’s plenty more work on field and in the film room to come for Maye, but as he noted he isn’t in college anymore, so studying and preparing is all he does now. And as noted by the piece from Lazar by his coordinator, Alex Van Pelt, "The biggest thing is just every moment he has a chance to learn, whether it's in the meeting room, or the practice field, the scout team, on the sidelines, the pregame meetings, just understanding the process in that regard.”
Sounds like the cautious approach will remain in play for a while, and that might be a good thing, because…
4 - The 2024 NFL rookie QB class did not exactly light the world on fire in Week 1. Not a single one who played posted a stat line they'd want to write home about. First overall pick Caleb Williams was 14-29 for 93 yards in Chicago’s defensive-led win over the Tennessee Titans. Williams showed poise postgame and during the week, noting he can play better but most importantly his team got the win.
Washington’s Jayden Daniels, who replaced Brissett and Sam Howell, taken second overall and right in front of Drake Maye, fared better against Tampa Bay, completing 17 of 24 passes for 184 yards, while rushing 16 times for 88 yards and two TDs. Problem is Washington lost big to the Buccaneers, 37-20. Daniels displayed some of the athleticism that led him to put up one of the all-time seasons for a college QB in 2023. Still the stat that matters most is what eluded him Week 1. Daniels also will have to get his weapons outside the running game going as his leading wide receiver in his debut was Luke McCaffrey with three catches for 18 yards.
Seattle’s Week 1 foe, Denver’s Bo Nix, also struggled, completing 26-of-42 passes but for a paltry 138 yards, also throwing no touchdowns, completing the zero rookie QB TD trifecta. Nix did scramble for a TD but he, like the others, looked to be above his depths at times.
The other three rookie first-round QBs: Maye and Atlanta’s Michael Penix did not play, while Minnesota’s JJ McCarthy is out for the year while recovering from knee surgery. These stats and the struggles of the rookie QB trio might well validate the cautious approach New England is taking with Maye and “The Plan.” Some may point out that the experience the three got is valuable as they learn on the fly. Others may say, rightly so, that QB is a dangerous position and if everything isn’t in order, then slow and steady may be the right approach.
How Williams, Daniels and Nix fare this season will be worth monitoring when it comes to Maye, the Patriots plan and how he plays when it’s ultimately his time.
5 - While the factors in his particular situation don’t reflect those of most QBs in the NFL right now, what happened Thursday night in Miami to Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is jarring, upsetting and a stark reminder of how dangerous football can be.
Tua, his Dolphins trailing the Bills in the second half, scrambled for a first down and collided head first with the chest of none other than Buffalo’s Damar Hamlin, the collision causing Tua’s third diagnosed concussion in the NFL. Confirmed. There have been speculations as to other brain traumas for Tagovailoa, who also suffered a diagnosed concussion while with Alabama in college. Tua, following the collision, went into what’s known as the “fencing position,” where his body momentarily seized up following the trauma to his brain. Something similar happened, on a Thursday night no less, in 2022 in Cincinnati against the Bengals.
No one single QB can be protected from hits, sacks and trauma, and anyone who’s played the game will tell you how violent it is, and that injuries and sadly concussions are a part of the sport. It’s going to happen. Tua, in this case, given his history, seems a bit more susceptible to concussions now that he’s had several, hence why some former players like Tony Gonzalez were suggesting retirement be in play for the Dolphins’ fifth-year QB who just received a lucrative four-year, $212 million extension this offseason. It's a tricky situation, one that has drawn empathy from a number of fans and analysts, and left Tagovailoa’s own coach saying this is not a matter for him to speculate on or help Tua decide.
How this affects the Patriots could be manifold, as Tua’s availability in the short and long term could be called into question as he recovers and ultimately decides what to do with his life and career. The long-term deleterious effects of multiple concussions are well known and documented, from CTE to other debilitating side effects and conditions that a young man entering his personal and athletic prime would hope not to have to consider. This may make the Dolphins less of a threat in the AFC East and AFC overall, though we’ll stop short of suggesting a postseason opportunity for the Pats.
Tua’s injury could possibly give pause to the Pats to not rush Drake Maye out behind an offensive line that’s yet to take shape, jell and find its hopefully permanent starting five. Again, while Tua’s latest concussion was self-induced on a scramble, we can be sure the Pats offensive and executive minds want to do every last thing they can to both prepare Maye for the challenges and rigors that will come with starting in the NFL…but also protect him.
Protect him from himself (he’s a gifted scrambler and known to take off when protection collapses) and protect him from oncoming rushers and defenders looking to make a play. Contact is not if but when, and when and again when you play QB. While nobody’s case is like Tua’s and hopefully his traumatic injury can be avoided by all the NFL’s signal callers, rookie and veteran, it feels an appropriate moment to check in and make sure all preventative measures are in place for good health and success. After that you turn back to your humanity, an element often missing from such a gloriously violent sport, and wish Tua the peace of mind to do what's best for him and his family.
6 - Though the Seahawks play on the opposite side of the country, and in the NFC, they feel like a very familiar face, and not just due to their similar style of play to the young 2024 Pats. Perhaps that is because of the intense nature of many of their recent matchups, and of course the unforgettable Super Bowl 49 showdown.
The Seahawks are 10-8 all-time in the regular season vs. the Patriots, winning the last three regular season tilts, most recently the thrilling COVID year win on Sunday Night Football that concluded with a last-minute goal line stand against Cam Newton’s Pats. Again, I’m sure the Seahawks would trade that or their 2016 win at Gillette or all of their last decade’s wins against anyone for a chance to hand it to Marshawn Lynch on the goal line in Arizona.
From the “Not So Fast!” Department of stats comes this nugget, as surfaced by our pal Mike Reiss from ESPN: the Seahawks are 24-11 in their last 35 1 p.m. EST games. This means any perceived advantage opponents felt like they might have against Seattle for having to travel great distances and adjust to time zone changes is virtually a non-factor. Pete Carroll used to fly the team out a day early to acclimate, and coach Mike McDonald is keeping that policy in place for his 2024 squad.
7 - Lastly, checking in with “Who’s On The Call?” Sunday's game will be broadcast on FOX, with Hawks at Pats drawing the well-known FOX NFL third team of Kenny Albert and Jonathan Vilma in the booth, with Megan Olivi on the sidelines. Albert is a veteran broadcaster himself, the son of the iconic Marv Albert, while Vilma is known in Pats nation from his days meaning the middle linebacker spot for the New York Jets from 2004-07.
