With the joyless slog of the Patriots’ 24-3 loss Thursday night at MetLife to the Jets firmly in our collective rearview mirror, how nice to have a Sunday where you can choose to watch football guilt and worry free, or go do anything else. We all could probably use a palette refresher like that. For those who can’t get enough on their favorite football team, we have some thoughts before we adjust our fantasy lineups and then go apple picking.
1. Patriots fans who have been highly anticipating Drake Maye’s first game as a pro in the NFL got their wish Thursday night vs. the Jets! It’s just that the game was well out of hand in the wrong direction late in the fourth quarter, a scenario many thought likely for his first pro action. Can’t help but wonder what percentage of fans that originally tuned in were still awake when Maye trotted in for a battered and bruised Jacoby Brissett.
It’s certainly a moment Maye likely won’t forget anytime soon, for all the right and wrong reasons.
Maye, who said his family was in attendance (even the Mayes knew how the game would likely go), completed 50% of his passes (4 of 8) for 22 yards, adding two scrambles for 12 yards. He also was sacked twice and lost his helmet on a hit, leaving the few fans still awake wondering if he was alright. Maye said afterward that he “can’t take stupid sacks,” something he’ll learn over time with more live reps and experience. But the cost that experience could come with behind this offensive offensive line (not a typo) makes one understand why Maye continues to be the backup.
As our own Meghan Ottolini pointed out, the appetite for a Maye start and the need for some dynamic playmaking ability and a spark is there. The team and fans are desperate for it. However, it seems the team is woefully unequipped and unprepared right now to turn the reins over to a rookie QB who is the prize asset of the team and its hopeful savior under center. Placing the franchise’s future in this degree of harm’s way would be risky beyond payout, despite the calls for Maye to start from fans, former players, analysts and more (check social media and you’ll see far more saying under no circumstances start him now.)
There’s learning by example, there’s learning under fire, and then there’s learning with the ball and your life in your hands, constantly on the run. That’s no way to start what could be a prodigious NFL career.
Following Thursday night’s loss at MetLife, head coach Jerod Mayo, who looked like he had just seen a ghost, or walked away from an accident, or both, said when asked if the team would re-evaluate who is the starting QB, “I don’t know. We talk about every single week you’re competing for a job, so we’ll get together as a coaching staff and see where it goes.” Then, the next morning, Mayo was much firmer in his stance on Brissett still being QB1 of the NEP.
The perceived wishy-washiness of Mayo’s response can probably best be explained as the immediacy of a reaction to what was a jarring defeat and unpleasant night in New Jersey, followed by a chance to evaluate properly with his coaches and deliver a more measured response. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said in response to a question on what would be best for Maye’s development now, playing or watching, ‘"I still think it's by watching." And watch he will.
But for how much longer? That likely depends on how much longer Brissett can handle the mauling he’s taken under center, truly a noble sacrifice for a player on but a one-year deal. Brissett’s been pressured on just under 50% of all of his dropbacks this season. When the word sustainable is thrown around in discussing the Pats offense that is Exhibit A of something that is just not sustainable. Brissett moves around when not in the game like the rest of us do the day after playing in our local town’s Turkey Bowl; slowly, gingerly and in pain.
Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins has been a popular pick for Maye’s first start. Home game, likely good weather, the September gauntlet finished, Tom Brady and the FOX crew on the call. Yet if the Pats don’t find a cohesive or even functional offensive line with continuity to put in front of him then Maye might hear calls from fans for Brady to come out of the booth. Even the GOAt would likely languish behind this patchwork line.
For now, an abundance of caution, as unsexy as that sounds, seems to be the call. Just when Maye Day arrives will remain as big a mystery as to how the Pats front office and coaches thought this line would be good enough to win games, let alone not have QBs running for their lives literally every other play.
2. Cleanup, aisle Patriots! The offensive line has been a work in progress (kindness matters!) for months now. Assembling the best five run and pass blockers for Brissett or Maye or whomever is not the only issue the Pats need to work on (though it would be a massive step in the right direction.) After a tremendous effort Week 1 in CIncinnati, the Patriots defensive tackling has become an issue. In that 16-10 victory they were the only team to miss just 5% of all tackles, over 5% better than any other team (per PFF metrics.) Yet in Week 2 at home vs. Seattle and especially Week 3 at the Jets tackling became a serious issue.
There were many examples Week 3, but the worst was cornerback Alex Austin, who was juked out by receiver Allen Lazard for the game’s first touchdown. Austin only got a hold of Lazard’s undershirt (not an instructed technique we’re guessing) and became the stuff memes are made of.
Couple that with runners like Breece Hall and Braelon Allen consistently getting into the second level, and another week where the QB was mostly able to extend plays with his feet and suddenly several “Check Engine Lights” are lit on the coaching dashboard. While Aaron Rodgers said he was doing things against the Pats he did “as a younger man,” his effort paired with Geno Smith’s elusiveness and efficiency the week before signals potential trouble on multiple levels for a defense expected to be the team’s strength (more on that soon.)
But wait, there’s more! Act now and we’ll throw in a few other gaffes, like Jahlani Tavai’s unnecessary roughness call in the first quarter that turned a five-yard loss against Breece Hall into a 15 yard gain on a drive that ultimately ended in a TD. This was not a case of the NFL going soft for player safety, there was just no need to deliver a WWE suplex when the player’s progress was halted.
And let’s not forget ball security, as Rhamondre Stevenson flirted with losing his first fumble of the season in the first two games but in Week 3 at the Jets finally gave it away, or rather had it literally taken right out of his hands.
Poor blocking. Poor tackling. Poor decision making. Poor ball handling. Aside from that how was the game, Mrs. Lincoln?
Mayo and his coaching staff have their work cut out for them over the next week-plus. While Thursday Night Football never comes at the right time in terms of healing and preparation, the extended recovery and practice time before Week 4 at San Francisco may have arrived precisely when the team needed it.
3. Difficult personnel decisions, player miscues, intense media scrutiny, fan unrest…there’s a lot on the plate for any head coach, let alone a rookie head coach in one of the NFL’s prime markets. Yet that’s what Jerod Mayo is dealing with now as his team sits 1-2 on the season, coming off back to back losses. Heading into Week 3, our own Andy Hart said on an episode of the 6 Rings podcast that he believed the Jets matchup would prove to be a pivotal week for Mayo as he was looking to establish his culture in New England. Mayo had players like Pop Douglas calling for the ball with the receivers struggling, a line in tatters, injuries mounting and a brewing QB controversy. Any coach who takes over for a legend has big shoes to fill, and any coach who takes over a 4-13 team has his work cut out for him.
All seemed to be headed in the right direction, and then suddenly the cries of “Iceberg, dead ahead!” metaphorically rang out. Can Mayo make the right calls, calm nerves, clean up mistakes and handle the pressure that’s likely to increase over the coming days? One thing is for certain as questions arise: he has the faith of ownership.
So long as Robert Kraft believes Mayo is the right man for the job, then he'll be afforded time to try to do things his way, even as the losses may pile up (insert obligatory reminder about this as a developmental or “bridge” year.)
The six banners that hang over the south end zone may put pressure and expectations on some, but the success that brought those to Gillette Stadium may also buy Mayo some time to lay his foundation. Let’s not worry about getting back to the ‘ship, rather just getting the ship back on track. How Mayo does that will be worth watching over the coming weeks and months.
4. While most coaches on the team and fans in the stands would likely say a quality left tackle would be the team’s top need right now (and they wouldn’t be wrong!), a legit No. 1 wide receiver wouldn’t be far behind. The Pats matching their season total in wide receiver yards Thursday night (84 vs. Jets to 85 over the first two games) is nothing to write home or to anywhere about. The Patriots are currently on track for less than 1,000 yards from the wide receiver position. Not from any one player but all of them, COMBINED. If you need a moment to let that sink in, go ahead.
OK…maybe this isn't all the fault of the receivers, but nobody has acquitted themselves or popped for any reason other than complaining or underwhelming.
Actually, it’s worse!
Sure, the line gives Brissett less than zero seconds to run through his progressions, and when he does he still holds the ball too long in a turnover-averse approach. But have mercy, can nobody get open, shake ‘n bake, make a play, anything?
Let’s spotlight one player expected to bring a veteran steadiness and productivity to the corps: KJ Osborn. Signed to a one-year deal for just under $4 million in the offseason, Osborn has four catches for 28 yards over the first three games, a pace of 23 catches for 159 yards. One might imagine you, the reader, currently exclaiming, “Even I could do that!” Probably not, but…
The debate for the Pats isn’t just “chicken or the egg” regarding the receivers’ lack of productivity being a line or QB problem. This is a “chicken or the egg or the farm or the weather or the feed” issue. Nothing is working. Brissett or Maye may have to start taking shots downfield in hopes of making connections or drawing a flag like Tyquan Thornton did Thursday vs. the Jets on a go route. Otherwise opponents will crowd the box, the running game will stall, collisions will occur, time of possession will dwindle and injuries will occur. This isn't speculation, thems just Foxboro football facts, ma’am.
5. On the injury front, the defense was already dealt a blow last week when Ja’Whaun Bentley went down for the year with a torn pectoral muscle (his value only increases with each missed tackle.) Then Jabrill Pepers appeared to injure an ankle in the first half (adding to his hip issue), and later Keion White was slow to get up late in the game. While it appears both avoided serious injury, the Pats defense, already down Christian Barmore until further notice, can ill afford to lose any other key players. But when the offense hit the “Subscribe & Save” button on Amazon’s Three-And-Out plan and consistently loses the time of possession battle, then the defense will be on the field too much and the injuries are likely to mount.
White said after the Week 2 loss to Seattle that the offense did enough to win and the defense let the team down. When the Pats score but a field goal and hold on to the ball for barely longer than the run time of “Rhapsody In Blue,” how much longer will the defense maintain that emotional line? The last thing this team needs is emotional discord, or locker room fractures, or more injuries. What they need is to hold on to the ball. Again, Mayo and the coaches probably are not on family hikes or brewery hopping this weekend (though they may need it.)
6. With offensive line and defensive injuries piling up, not to mention a roster in competitive transition in said “bridge year,” expect the Patriots to remain active in terms of the waiver wire and signing players from other teams. Witness this past week’s vulturing of Jamree Kromah, a rookie defensive end on the Chicago Bears practice squad. Bentley's placement on IR left a spot open, and with linebacker Oshane Ximines injured as well (now on short term IR) the Pats looked outside the organization for depth and possible help.
Kromah, an undrafted free agent out of James Madison, looks promising if given some time to develop, and that may be exactly what he’s afforded in New England. If the Pats line struggles persist, and the defense is on the field for two minutes to the offense’s every one minute, we may see more Kromahs or Demontry Jacobs of the world coming through Foxboro this fall.
7. Scoring is certainly down in New England (the 13 points per game average has some pining for the days of 2023’s 18 points per game.) However, scoring is down league wide as well. Touchdowns, 300-yard passer games and fantasy friendly stats are far and few between thus far. Two theories have been afforded by some veteran analysts as to why: one has been well received thanks to its logic, while the other is being trounced like it plays QB for the Patriots.
FOX’s Terry Bradshaw said quite simply that the first few games of the regular season are like extended preseason, and with stars sitting and limitations on contact and reps in practices in-season and during training camps, then it makes sense that it takes time to tune these players and their modern offenses up. Co-sign on that one, Terry!
However, Mel Kiper Jr’s theory that the two-high safety defense is killing offense in the NFL is…as absurd as it sounds.
Kiper’s suggestion that the two-high safety defense (Cover 2 or Tampa 2 are popular variations) be outlawed is beyond ridiculous. There are so many opinions against it we can’t share them all but recommend you do a twitter search for yourself. Aaron Rodgers even went so far as to mock the notion in his postgame remarks after beating the Patriots.
Scoring will increase gradually, and the league will adapt to the latest defensive trends (what's old is often new again in a copycat league!) Perhaps looking for rule changes or drastic formation eliminations and not playing better football, taking what the defense allows or getting your best players up to speed is what should be outlawed. That and bad takes on national TV.