1. While free agency doesn’t begin until March and the NFL Draft isn’t until the end of April, the Patriots need to begin to map out their offseason plans. And to the surprise of no one, it begins with the quarterback position. While it’s hard to identify the exact guy right now, the team can at least have a plan. Does it want to trade for a big-name player — Matthew Stafford or Matt Ryan? Does it want to invest in a rookie high in the draft? Does it want to add a free agent veteran? Deciding on a route helps map out how the rest of the offseason will go. The Patriots will have upwards of $60, or even $70 million, in cap space so if they decide to invest in a rookie high in the draft, then they can potentially spend more at other positions like wide receiver and/or tight end. If they trade or add a big-name, that likely would come with a cost, so then they would need to adjust at other positions and may not be able to spend as much. As for Cam Newton, the door should not be completely closed. He likely isn’t at the top of their list, but he’s still an option. What if options 1-5 — Stafford isn’t made available, Jimmy Garoppolo stays in San Francisco, veterans don’t fit, etc. — aren’t there, then he would remain in play. Newton proved this year he would be a good veteran to potentially mentor a rookie quarterback, so a scenario where Newton re-signs and the team drafts a QB high in the draft should be in play. While specifics are not to lock in now, having some plan at the quarterback position will help dictate what the Patriots will be able to do at other positions.
2. As the Patriots search for their next quarterback, here’s something to consider: of the 14 starting quarterbacks in the playoffs, 11 were selected in the first round (Drew Brees was pick No. 32, but was Round 2 in 2001). Furthermore, eight of the 14 were in the top-10. It isn’t the end all be all, but it’s pretty evident the most successful players at the position come in the first round and it’s extremely hard to find someone who turns out great not selected high in the draft.
3. In terms of positions other than quarterback, based on how Bill Belichick has done things in the past, it seems hard to envision him paying top dollar for a wide receiver. That just isn’t what he does. Randy Moss remains the highest paid wide receiver (per year) in the Belichick era, so it’s hard to see him going out and signing a free agent receiver to a mega-deal this offseason. Of course, he did draft a receiver in the first round for the first time in 2019, so he can break trends, but it just doesn’t feel like he believes wide receiver is a position worth investing top dollar in. If this holds true, free agents like Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Godwin, etc. will likely not be coming to New England.
4. As of now, Josh McDaniels hasn’t received any head-coaching interview requests, which is both surprising and not surprising at the same time. McDaniels is still one of the best offensive coordinators in the game, but obviously had a down year, his first without Tom Brady. Those around the league without knowing exactly what McDaniels was working with could say he was a product of Brady, but watching all 16 Patriots games this season it was clear he wasn’t working with much, and he deserves a lot of credit for the little offense the team was able to muster this year. This certainly isn’t the end of the road for him, as McDaniels’ name will come up again.
5. Nick Caserio was very impressive during his introductory video conference as general manager with the Texans, but he certainly has his work cut out for him. Deshaun Watson is really the only good thing going for the franchise and he reportedly is upset with not being consulted on the GM search. On top of that, the team does not have a lot of cap space this offseason and then it doesn’t have a first or second-round pick in 2021. Caserio also comes into a situation where the fan base is on edge following what’s transpired over the last few years, most notably trading DeAndre Hopkins, firing Bill O’Brien and sticking with Jack Easterby. The one thing he has going personally is he has a six-year deal worth $30 million, which makes him one of the three highest-paid GMs in the league.
6. When it comes to replacing Caserio, it will not be one person given everything he did for the organization — free agency, contract negotiations, draft prep, on the field during training camp/practices, on the headset during games and more. But when it comes to the personnel responsibilities he had, the Patriots should look to someone outside the organization who would not be afraid to disagree with Belichick. It feels like there’s only one line of thought in the personnel department with everyone coming up through the system, besides Eliot Wolf, and the organization could use a different perspective when making key decisions.
7. In terms of what is to come this offseason, Belichick noted during his season-ending video conference that there are a lot of unknowns — salary cap, combine, pro days, etc. “Compared to last year, I don’t know,” he said. “We’ll just have to wait and see. We haven’t gotten anything definitively about how the combine will be done. We can look at leagues like the NBA and see what they did with their combine. Maybe the NFL combine will be similar to that, maybe it won’t, I don’t know. We’ll just have to see how all that goes in terms of the spring scouting and information gathering process. But, the fall scouting has basically been off of film and whatever virtual or phone call communication could be done with a staff member or a pro liaison or however the colleges set it up.”
