Back in May, I wrote about why Mac Jones should be the layup pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year. This made a lot of people very mad and was widely regarded as a bad idea. Fortunately for the nonbelievers who painted me a blasphemous heretic, the train is only about to leave the station and there’s still time to hop on.
If you listened to me back then, a $100 bet on Mac Jones would potentially win you $1,000 six months from now, should Jones take home OROTY. If you didn’t jump at the bet but came around on the idea at some point over the summer, the best odds you could’ve gotten were +1500 (win $1,500 for a $100 bet). The kind of value that once existed on a bet such as this is simply no longer there, and won’t be unless the Patriots and/or Jones stink. And at that point you’d be burning your money to place that bet.
As of this writing, DraftKings has Jones for OROTY at +600, second only to Trevor Lawrence at +400. The value here is like going to a Sugar Ray concert in 2021: not what it once was, but still good.
So, is Jones STILL the no-brainer pick to win OROTY? Absolutely. Much more so than before too, as now we know for a fact Mac is the starting quarterback of the Patriots. He won’t be a few games behind Zach Wilson and Lawrence statistics-wise like he may have been if Bill Belichick wasted everyone’s time and made us watch Cam Newton for the first month of the season.
When I wrote the aforementioned article back on May 7, I outlined four key characteristics of rookie quarterbacks winning OROTY in the modern NFL:
If the team makes the playoffs, the QB will win OROTY. The exceptions are Andrew Luck and Joe Flacco, only because Robert Griffin III and Matt Ryan had stellar statistical rookie campaigns.
This does not mean the team HAS TO make the playoffs for the player to win the award. But when the team DOES make the playoffs, the rookie QB wins OROTY.
Traditional box score stats are what get votes: yards, touchdowns, and wins.
When a QB is a legitimate contender, the award goes to the QB. Tie always goes to the QB.
Ryan, Sam Bradford, Newton, Griffin III, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert all fall within these parameters. In 2021, Jones is the quarterback who most closely resembles the previous winners. This does not mean I think Jones will have a better career or is a better player than Lawrence, Wilson, Trey Lance, or Justin Fields. It just means he has the best chance to win OROTY.
Lance and Fields are already at a disadvantage by not being the Week 1 starters for the 49ers and Bears. Although most people believe both will be inserted as the starter at some point, by that time their teams may be well on their way to missing the playoffs and they’ll be at a statistical disadvantage in relation to Jones, Lawrence, and Wilson.
While the Jaguars and Jets could surely shock everyone and be playoff teams, the odds are stacked against them based on their divisional opponents (sans the Texans), strength of conference, and mediocre rosters. The two teams had the first and second overall picks for a reason. Both teams have their strengths, particularly at the skill positions, but both defensive units are likely to be among the worst in the league. Even if wins are heavily associated with OROTY, they are a team stat, not a QB stat. The QB is rewarded for the play of the entire team.
Because box score stats are what count in projecting NFL awards, Jones being an inferior passer to maybe all four of the other first round QBs isn’t as much of a demerit as it should be. Jones could have 4.0 average intended air yards, throw for 4,000 yards with 3,000 of them being yards after the catch and Lawrence could literally have zero YAC and throw for a true 4,000 yards and Jones is winning OROTY in that scenario, assuming the Patriots are in the playoffs and the Jaguars are not.
The Patriots will undoubtedly be in the postseason--they have a top five offensive line, elite front seven, and should be back in the top ten in turnover differential this season. In the event all five rookie QBs miss the postseason, it would still take a big year from a non-QB skill position player for a quarterback to not win OROTY. Najee Harris or Javonte Williams would need to have Ezekiel Elliott-type rookie years en route to a Steelers or Broncos playoff berth. Kyle Pitts would have to break rookie tight end receiver records. Even if any of those happen, recent history is not on the non-QB’s side: 1,600 yards and 15 TDs wasn’t enough for Ezekiel Elliott to beat out Dak Prescott. Josh Jacobs’ 1,100 YDS couldn’t beat Kyler Murray. Justin Jefferson’s 1,400 yards couldn’t beat Justin Herbert. All three examples are cases of virtual ties going to the quarterbacks.
In the modern NFL, the odds are stacked against non-QBs for OROTY. And the odds are even further stacked against quarterbacks on bad teams. That’s why Jones was the no-brainer pick to win the award the second he was drafted and still is as we head into Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season.