“It’s going to be ugly for Bill.”
That was the prediction from Chris Curtis at the start of “The Greg Hill Show” Tuesday, and he isn’t alone. After a dismal preseason for the Patriots, there is a growing chorus of voices who are foreboding Bill Belichick’s demise before the games start counting for real. There’s even some discussion about Belichick being on the hot seat — seriously.
Vegas pegs Belichick as the 16th-most likely coach to be fired first (+5,000), placing him ahead of error-prone Chargers coach Brandon Staley (+6,500), and a few spots behind Kliff Kingsbury (+1,200). Obviously, those aren’t good odds, but the idea of Belichick being fired in the middle of the season used to be unfathomable. His curious placing in the middle of the list reflects the barrage of negativity surrounding the Patriots heading into Belichick’s 22nd season.
There is a lot to be concerned about. The first team offense scored just 10 points in seven drives this preseason, including a paltry three points against the Raiders Friday. The Patriots are installing a new offense with two novice offensive coaches, Joe Judge and Matt Patricia, at the helm, and Mac Jones seems lost. On top of that, the Patriots did little to improve their roster this offseason, and weirdly selected Cole Strange, a guard from Chattanooga, in the first round of the NFL Draft.
But let’s not get crazy. Reports of the Patriots’ demise are premature.
While their 17-17 record over the last two seasons is underwhelming, it’s hard to say they underachieved in either campaign. Looking back, their 7-9 record in 2020 with an incapable Cam Newton under center and few weapons around him was a minor football miracle, and it’s safe to say Belichick stole them a couple of wins late in the season. They knocked off the Ravens, Cardinals and Chargers in November and December, all of whom were much more explosive teams on paper.
Last year, the Patriots finished 9-8 with a rookie QB and qualified for the playoffs — with a seven-game winning streak mixed in. They played sloppily at times and faded late in the season. But overall, it was a respectable effort.
Josh McDaniels played a big role in that, and his absence is already felt. But all summer long, Belichick has cautioned the public to trust in the process. It’s apparent the Patriots were more concerned about practice and less concerned about results during training camp. Patricia said as much Monday.
“Sometimes, you know, right now we're running into looks that maybe aren't great, you know, just so that we get the runs run in that particular moment and make sure that we're getting enough reps that everything before the reps really kind of get limited as we go forward from there,” he said.
Recent reporting from NBC Sports Boston’s Phil Perry backs up that notion. The Patriots Insider says he expects Jones to exert more control at the line of scrimmage during the season.
It may look bad now, and Belichick’s remarks about waiting until mid-November to evaluate his team come off as cavalier. The Patriots can’t expect to just turn it on, like they did with Tom Brady for all of those years.
But they still have Belichick, and thus, we can still expect them to be competitive. Ultimately, that isn’t good enough for a franchise with six Super Bowl champions. But it’s not “ugly.”
Belichick deserves some benefit of the doubt. (Of course, a bad start to the season would render all of this even-keeled commentary moot, for I am the most reactionary of bloggers. Watch this space.)
