How will the Patriots do in 2020?
With all the changes this offseason, this is one of the more intriguing seasons in recent memory. In the past, the team was pretty much locked in for at least 10 or 11 wins.
That is no longer the case.
Really, almost any record is on the table this season. The Off Day podcast guys debated this on their most recent podcast.
Is it more likely the team goes 11-5 or 5-11? Andy Hart and Ryan Hannable had differing opinions.
11-5
While 11-5 likely is a bit of a stretch in terms of what the final Patriots record will be, 5-11 is almost impossible to fathom. A team led by Bill Belichick with players like Cam Newton, Julian Edelman, Devin McCourty only finishing with five wins? That's almost impossible to believe. Also, look at the AFC East. It is one of the worst divisions in the league and with four games against the Dolphins and Jets should be good for at least three wins right there. Then what if Newton is back close to his 2015 MVP level? While it likely won't be that good, what if he's the game-changer that he once was? Couple that with a defense that was No. 1 in the league last year, 11 wins is possible. Sure, the unit will not be as good as it was a year ago with all the players it lost, but if some of the rookies pan out, it has the potential to be a top-10 defense. The end result is likely a 7-to-9 win team, but no less than that.
— Ryan Hannable
5-11
Obviously, the most likely scenario for the Patriots this season is a record somewhere between 5-11 and 11-5. But, that's not the question here. So, picking between one or the other, I have to go with 5-11. Bill Belichick's team simply has too much roster turnover, too many questions and too difficult a projected schedule to predict an 11-win season. Even if Cam Newton is healthy and making plays, he still faces the challenge of limited weapons at tight end and receiver as well as a suspect rushing attack that lacks defined roles. Defensively there is more turnover than I think many people are aware of. The front seven is a major concern given the departure of Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and Danny Shelton as well as Dont'a Hightower's opt-out. Sure, the secondary remains loaded with proven talent despite the trade of Duron Harmon and Patrick Chung's opt-out, but you can only cover for so long without a decent pass rush and opponents may just turn to the running game more often than not.
The Tom Brady-led Patriots rode an elite defense and weak schedule to 12 wins last season. Now, with less talent and more concerns on both sides of the ball we're supposed to just give Belichick and Co. 11 wins? Nope. Can't do it. Won't do it. Would I be surprised if a Belichick-coached team won just 5 games for the first time since 2000? Yes. But I'll be even more surprised – and impressed – if Belichick guides the 2020 Patriots to 11 wins.
— Andy Hart
