Why betting the over is the play in Patriots-Bills

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The bad boys of going 1-2 on the week are back and like the U.S. Senate, we are 50% plus one, hanging onto a 56-55 record on the season.

Here’s how we did last week:

MUT:  1-2      HIT SF; MISSED NE/TEN under, LAR                16-20

JOHN:  1-2     HIT BUF -6; MISSED NE/TEN under, DAL/LV under        20-19

SCHEIM:  1-2      HIT SEA/WAS under; MISSED PHI, LAC               18-17

LUCY:                                                                                               2-1

TOTAL:   3-6                                                                          56-55

This week Mut and I are joined by a special guest, Lucy Burdge of Bet QL, playing the role of Scheim, who stubbed his toe in his herb garden and couldn’t make it in for the podcast.

Mut and Lucy’s common thread here was declaring that Mac Jones would pass seemingly his final test before being deemed a legit franchise quarterback and beat the Bills. I’m more skeptical due to both defenses being the best two defenses in the NFL right now and the Bills offensive line getting healthy at the right time.

The real play here is the over, which is set astoundingly low at 43.5 as of this writing.

Just saying the Bills are the best or second-best defense in the league isn’t enough to make the case for why the Patriots won’t move the ball and score points. The Panthers were a top five defense and the Browns were a top three defense at the time they played the Patriots. The Titans last week were likewise top five. Mac Jones will be fine and the Patriots will score points.

But the Bills offense is the first major challenge for the Patriots defense this season since September, which notoriously does not matter when evaluating Belichick defenses. It doesn't have to be a shootout, it just needs to get into the 20s for each team.

Here are the rest of our picks for Week 13:

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Mut:     PIT +3 v BAL; LAC +3 @ CIN; PHI/NYJ under 44.5

Scheim:   SF -3.5 @ SEA; LV -2.5 v WAS; DEN/KC under 47.5

John:    DAL -6 @ NO (TNF); DEN +9.5 @ KC (SNF); NE/BUF over 43.5 (MNF)

Lucy:    NE +3 @ BUF (MNF); TB -11 @ ATL; IND -10 @ HOU

Tweet us your picks for Week 13 of the NFL season!

@MutWEEI | @LucilleBurdge | @AndersenJA