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theory, the San Francisco 49ers have been trying to prove a point we’ve been forgetting as a football society: it is, in fact, possible to win a Super Bowl without a top-flight quarterback.
The Niners almost succeeded back in 2019 only to be foiled by Patrick Mahomes and, well, their own quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo). They made it to an NFC Championship last year with Garoppolo before falling to the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. Now, they’re trying to do it with rookie Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant himself, as the playoffs begin this weekend.
They’re, in turn, following somewhat in the footsteps of both the early 2010s versions of themselves that took Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick to NFC Championships and Super Bowls with strong defenses and running games, as well as the Seattle Seahawks’ “Legion of Boom” days.
Sure, Patrick Mahomes could be about to take the Chiefs to their fifth straight AFC title game, which is something only the Tom Brady-led Patriots have done in recent memory. Oh yeah, speaking of that guy: Brady has won a Super Bowl every other year since 2014 and made a conference final seven times in that span with two different teams.
But mixed in there are some flash-in-the-pan teams like the 2015 Broncos, who got a ring for a broken-down Peyton Manning thanks to an incredible defense and the Nick Foles-led Eagles in 2017.
Why’s that relevant to the Patriots? They’re essentially on the doorstep of that path themselves.
For all the ostensible non-commitment to Mac Jones by Bill Belichick after this season, Patriots fans should expect Jones to be the team’s starting quarterback in 2023. Well, unless the reports about Jones seeking outside help amid the chaos in 2022, Belichick feeling personally attacked and the relationship being irrevocably broken are true, of course. Let's put that on the back burner for a moment.
The idea of simply tossing Jones out with the trash and setting on a rookie contract sounds nice, but it’s probably not worth it for a quarterback not in the top 10 of the draft. (If Jones stays bad, maybe you can just do that next year, anyway.)
Also, giving up on him goes against the trends of the NFL at the moment, in which teams invest in their third-year quarterbacks, give them weapons needed to evaluate them and see if they’re worth a second contract.
Plenty of people were ready to replace Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa last year, and they just took major third-year leaps thanks to their franchises’ support.
The evidence seems clear: build around Jones in Year 3, and see if elevating him can lead to him elevating his team.
But to what end, you ask, if Jones doesn’t look like “the guy” you can win a Super Bowl with — something many fans and pundits have already decided on as fact?
It all depends on what you want to accomplish and how you want to do it, and we might already know what Belichick’s plan for Super Bowl contention looks like.
Just look at the early Patriots dynasty and even how he built the team in 2021. Those squads were built on having strong all-around rosters rather than explosive offenses only, thriving on defense and controlling the football instead of scoring teams into submission on offense.
Jones thrived under that approach as a rookie with Josh McDaniels, leading the Patriots to unsuccessfully replicate that approach in an even simpler format under Matt Patricia.
The offense wants to score more than it did this past year, of course. But this team might not care about being the Chiefs and having a quarterback that can bludgeon opponents to death. It might not care about having Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow (though no one would say “no” to that if a player like that fell into their laps).
Perhaps the Patriots don’t need “the guy.” Maybe they just want “a guy”: one they think they can win with — or rather not lose because of.
Maybe that’s what Belichick was hinting at in his less-than-inspiring “Mac can play quarterback in this league” comment on Monday and why he brought up the entire offense’s need to be better, not Jones only, in the same breath. When he’s got competent coaching, Jones can manage a game and not kill you with crippling mistakes.
That brings us back to Belichick’s timeline and how it bears on the situation. He has two, maybe three years until the Patriots get the 19 victories he needs to break Don Shula’s wins record, assuming they hover in the 8-10 wins range. Everything he’s done suggests he’s not interested in changing his model for building a team or winning football games.
Relying on a game manager, the running game and complementary football aren't the keys to a sustainable run of dominance atop a division, though. Having a Mahomes, Allen, Burrow or Brady is. (Maybe Belichick forgot that Brady became the best quarterback in football after that first dynasty.)
But what if Belichick’s not looking for some sustainable future or desperate for a demi-god at quarterback? What if lightning in a bottle for a year or two is exactly the play?
If that’s the case, maybe Mac Jones is indeed the Patriots’ plan at quarterback until Belichick gets the milestone he’s after. Ride him until the rookie contract is up, build up the rest around him and go out with the cheap quarterback who generally won’t give away games?
Even if it works, it wouldn’t keep the Patriots at the top of the mountain long — not with Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and others in the AFC for the foreseeable future. It’s starting to become clear that Jones won’t ever be at their level and probably won’t make the Patriots Super Bowl contenders year after year just by virtue of having him.
But if Belichick thinks he could even get the one with Jones or even just get to the wins record before the coach’s time is up, maybe that’s enough for Belichick to see it through until the end.
Of course, Jones had better make sure he manages the game well enough to keep Bailey Zappe or "insert veteran here" off the field, or Belichick might be tempted to try his luck there.
