Et tu, Gruden?
The Raiders’ four turnovers single-handedly accounted for half of our L’s this past week as the silver pirates fell mightier than this podcast’s W-L from last season to this season. We’ve fallen so far that on this week’s podcast, the sentence, “1-2 is the new 3-0,” was uttered, not sure by whom. Before we spill our hearts in this week’s picks, here's how we (44-65-1 on the year) did this week (2-7):
Mut (1-2 on the week) does not wish to be remembered for hitting on WAS +3 or laying it all on the line for the Matt Patricia “back against the wall” game, but rather for succumbing to the incredible display of football that was put forth by the Las Vegas Raiders against the Falcons. (16-19-1 on the year)
Scheim (0-3 on the week) will have this quote from last week etched on his gravestone: “I think the Raiders are a good team. Jon Gruden is a good coach. -4 is way too low of a spread.” To Scheim’s credit, when the BAL/PIT over was uttered the game had not yet been pushed back a month with half the Ravens moved to the COVID list. (17-19 on the year)
I (1-2 on the week) literally picked everything Mut picked. We did not confer on our picks beforehand so it was pretty awkward when he got through reading all his picks last week. (12-24 on the year)
Before I get to our picks for this week, a note on this week’s Patriots-Chargers matchup that we discussed on the podcast...the Chargers are basically the anti-Patriots.
The Chargers have lost 40 one-possession games since 2015, including seven of their eight losses in 2020. That is by far the most in the NFL in that span. This is a statistic that is supposed to regress to the mean over time, but aside from going 6-1 in these games in 2018 there has been no positive regression for the Chargers. It’s systemic.
Games like that come down to being able to execute on the margins, being sound in specific situations, for which the Patriots are famous. Since 2015 the Patriots have lost only 18 one-possession games, but also have only 27 losses total in that span, with four of those one-score losses and six of the losses coming in this first season with Cam Newton under center instead of Tom Brady.
The Chargers didn’t have an analytics department until this past February. Albeit covert, the Patriots have bought into analytics for a long time. It’s not entirely clear if this department has any influence as head coach Anthony Lynn continues to run when it’s not efficient to do so, or when it’s just not working despite Justin Herbert’s apparent ability to sling it.
Conversely, the Patriots know when and when not to buy into certain analytics based on their talent (i.e., it’s more efficient across the board to pass out of two TE sets, but not when you barely have half a tight end on your roster).
Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are also famous for their halftime adjustments, whereas the static coaching of Anthony Lynn combined with Gus Bradley’s insistence on playing the Seattle Cover 3 scheme, which Patriots offenses have notoriously torn apart. Cam Newton can’t throw short? Well, expect the Patriots to work to open up other avenues, such as shredding the defense on the ground as they did against the Chargers in the playoffs two years ago.
All of this ultimately adds up to an old football idiom, “smart teams beat dumb teams.”
Here are our picks for Week 13, AKA the ‘You Can’t Start A Fire Without A Spark Part II: Electric Boogaloo’ week:
Mut: PHI/GB o46.5; BUF -1 @ SF (in Arizona); CHI -3 v DET
Scheim: NYG +10 @ SEA; KC -13.5 @ DEN; JAX/MIN u52
John: NE +1 @ LAC; WAS +8.5 @ PIT; IND/HOU o51
Tweet us videos of you making a pick or picks for this week and we’ll play it in the audience picks recap on next week’s episode! Also tweet us screenshots from your DraftKings app of any bets you made this week.
@MutWEEI | @Scheimtime | @AndersenJA | @WinnersClubPod
