After an intrigued-filled preseason, we're about to get our first glimpse of what the real 2022 New England Patriots might look like on the road against the Miami Dolphins Sunday.
Plus, we'll get a chance to see if the hype about the Dolphins' off-season moves is really worth it.
Though the quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) is the same, everything else around him feels stronger, from the addition of the mega-fast Tyreek Hill to the hiring of head coach Mike McDaniel to lead the operation.
On paper, a growing number of analysts have this team supplanting the Patriots for second place in the AFC East behind the Buffalo Bills. If New England wants to thwart them, Sunday is a good place to start.
Here are a few things that jump out about the Dolphins as Sunday approaches.
Don’t cheat too much on the Cheetah
We get it: Tyreek Hill is wildly fast — possibly the fastest player in the NFL. (Him versus Tyquan Thornton would be a fun race.)
As much of a challenge as he is to deal with, though, the Patriots have done admirably of late. After surrendering 275 receiving yards and four touchdowns the first two times they faced him, New England’s defense has cut that down to 126 yards and one score in its two most recent meetings with the speedster.
Whether it’s double-teaming, shading or just siccing Jonathan Jones on him, the Patriots generally have a plan for that. Bill Belichick has generally been good at scheming away top receivers, and the smart money suggests Hill will have a game more like his last two (averaging 63 yards receiving) than the first two he had against New England.
Now, they just have to stop all the other guys.
Jaylen Waddle is hardly less explosive than Hill and caught a touchdown in each of his contests against the Patriots last year. Mike Gesicki is a matchup nightmare as primarily a tight-end-sized receiver.
Then, the additions of Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert give the Dolphins backfield some juice they didn’t have in 2021 — not that it stopped Duke Johnson from bludgeoning New England in Week 18. The Patriots have had plenty of strong practices against the type of wide-zone scheme the Dolphins will likely employ with McDaniel. But Miami has better personnel than the New England offense that struggled to even give its defense a good look in training camp.
Letting Hill beat you simply isn’t an option, and he’ll do it gladly if allowed. But focusing so much on him that you let the rest of the offense go off won’t bode well either. That’s how you end up not forcing a punt all day.
Beating the heat (not the temperature kind)
Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blitzed opposing offenses at a higher rate (40.8 percent) than the Dolphins did last year (39.6 percent).
Last season, Miami sent extra men at Jones a ridiculous 47.5 percent of snaps in the quarterback’s rookie debut. He responded by going 14-of-18 for 124 yards and a score, proving he could stand the heat.
Of course, that was then. The offensive line — and really the unit in general — has a few more question marks around it these days.
The Dolphins probably looked at that Preseason Week 3 snap against the Raiders where the Patriots’ pass pro allowed a slot blitz to level Mac Jones like a ham in a Hannah Barbera cartoon. They’re also likely eyeing rookie left guard Cole Strange and potentially gimpy right tackle Isaiah Wynn as weak links to take advantage of, as well as a less-stable group of pass-protecting running backs. (Possibly having Ty Montgomery available would be tremendous.)
If you’re Jones, you want to largely do what you did last year: get the ball out fast when the heat comes, and let the playmakers do the rest.
But he also showed he could challenge the Dolphins’ secondary down the field when given time, hitting Nelson Agholor in Cover 2 window down the sideline at one point and nearly dropping a dime on a deep cross to Jakobi Meyers on another throw.
If Jones can identify a 1-on-1 matchup he likes when he senses a blitz coming — probably NOT Xavien Howard, by the way — punishing the Dolphins with a shot or two might make them re-think their strategy.
By the way, stay far away from Xavien Howard.
This needs no explanation.
With Byron Jones out the first four weeks after landing on the reserve/PUP list, the Dolphins have a rather large question mark on the other side of the defense. Miami might have to rely on Nik Needham, who’s primarily been a slot corner, and Keion Crossen — both of whom have been banged up this preseason — to fill the void.
Hunt those matchups as often as possible, and find Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith against their linebackers.
Do not, for the love of God, test Howard any more than you need to. He’s both a tough battle in man coverage and a dangerous man when he’s got his eyes on the football, which he demonstrated when he swiped Jones for a pick-six in Week 18.
Make Tua make the "right" throws
Yes, the Patriots will certainly want to force Tagovailoa to hold the football and try to make throws down the field. The third-year quarterback is at his best when he can play things fast and short in the passing game, and he starts to struggle when asked to throw further than 10 yards down the field.
But there's even more to it than that.
Aside from the deep part of the field, Tagovailoa was markedly worse throwing to his right last year at every level of the field. He threw for six touchdowns and seven interceptions in the center and right thirds of the field in 2021 as opposed to nine touchdowns and three picks to the left.
That's not necessarily surprising for a left-handed quarterback, and McDaniel has likely helped him get some work in to clean up whatever mechanical issues led to those discrepancies, of course. But the Patriots would be wise to make him go that way if they can.
