The NFL Playoffs kick off on Saturday with Wild Card Weekend featuring six games. Four of the six home teams are favored with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens the only two laying points on the road.
Our sports betting staff of Thomas Casale, Vikas Chokshi, Lucy Burdge, and Reed Wallach broke down all the games and each have settled on one best bet they like most this weekend. Enjoy the games and let's all win some money to kick off the 2020-21 NFL postseason.
Lines are as of Friday morning with sportsbook listed.
Casale: Tennessee Titans +3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This pick is all about the number for me. I got the Titans +3.5 and a couple of books still had that line up as of Friday morning. However, most books moved the game to Ravens -3. That's the lowest I'd go taking Tennessee. I'd rather have +3.5, I'd take +3, anything lower I advise passing.
I see this as a dead-even game. I make Baltimore -1 in this matchup, so there is value for me with Tennessee getting a field goal or more at home. The Ravens come in hot but are a little overvalued after beating up on some bad teams. Baltimore is built to blow out weaker teams, so easy wins over the Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, and Cincinnati Bengals isn't all that surprising.
The Ravens also defeated the Cleveland Browns during their 5-game win streak. That was an even, back and forth matchup that went down to the final minutes. That's how I see this game going on Sunday.
Like the Browns, Tennessee's offense matches up well against the Ravens' defense. They are a physical team with good receivers like A.J. Brown and Corey Davis that can make Baltimore's aggressive, blitzing defense pay.
And don't forget, before Baltimore started feasting on weaker competition, the Ravens lost four of five to the Pittsburgh Steelers (twice), New England Patriots and these Titans. What do those four opponents all have in common? Physical teams that punched the bully Ravens right in the mouth.
I did take the Titans on the moneyline +160 too. I do believe they win this game outright, but give me +3.5 all day in what should be the most entertaining matchup of Wild Card Weekend.
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Chokshi: Washington Football Team +8 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
I know Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T., but I'm grabbing the points in this spot.
Defensively, the only teams that have had success against TB12 in the past have been able to bring pressure with their front four. The Football Team's front, led by Chase Young, will be able to do just that all game long. WFT comes into this game ranked third in Defensive DVOA, so look for them to slow down this Bucs offense enough to cover this number.
Next, the game starts around Brady's bedtime. ESPN's Doug Kezirian posted this nugget once the matchups were set, and I'm digging it. My perception might be a little skewed since I saw TB struggle against my Bears in a similar primetime spot earlier this season.
Lastly, earlier this week, I wrote about a playoff trend to keep an eye on this weekend. The last two teams to make the playoffs with losing records actually won their first game. Washington fits that scenario here and I like the way they match up with the Bucs. Take the points.
Burdge: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tom Brady’s smirk when the media asked him about Chase Young saying “I want Tom” says it all. He is not letting this guy and the Washington Football Team beat him. A fire is lit under Brady, and the rest of the Bucs will follow his lead.
What Young said is going to backfire on him because he has unleashed “the storm” Brady says he is. The Buccaneers are road favorites against the Football Team and their Super Bowl hopes will still be alive after Saturday’s showdown. The WFT will stay in this game for a while, but look for Brady and the Bucs to pull away in the second half to cover this number.
Wallach: Washington-Tampa Bay Under 44.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The total has come down considerably from the opener of 46.5, but I still like that number as a buy point. The Washington offense has been bad for a majority of the season, averaging a little more than 17 points per game over its last nine.
The Football Team got into the postseason behind a fantastic defense that I think will have some success against Tom Brady, who has really struggled under pressure this season. As noted in my game preview for this matchup, Washington is fourth in the NFL in quarterback pressures and I see them showing up on Saturday night.
While the WFT can limit Tampa Bay's offense, Washington is not going to score many points with a banged up Alex Smith under center.
I see this game becoming a punt fest and Washington struggles to find the end zone. This reeks of a 20-6 Tampa Bay win with a late cover in garbage time. But why worry about the spread when you can take the under instead.