"It seemed like we were playing for field position, kicked it inside the 10 and then Tom Brady came in the game." - Matt Strahm on the 2022 Red Sox trade deadline strategy.
It's hard to take definitive stands on the Red Sox these days, with their 3-1 loss to the Yankees only cementing that reality. After a supposed turning point win at Yankee Stadium Friday night, Alex Cora's club left 11 runners on base, fell victim to a couple of less-than-majestic Yankees homers and once again found themselves one loss away from losing yet another series.
They one game under .500 while the Yankees sit 10 games over. In terms of the Wild Card standings, the Sox sit five games behind the Astros for the final Wild Card spot, with the Blue Jays (1 1/2 games back) and Angels (2 1/2) in front of them. Seattle also sits five games back.
They are good enough just enough of the time. But that only making things more convoluted heading into the time of the season where team's intentions are defined - the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
Even sitting here 51 days away from the deal-making deadline, it's not unfair to at least contemplate what will be in store for Chaim Bloom and Co.
The Rays, Twins, Rangers, Orioles, Yankees, Astros, Blue Jays, Angels and maybe Mariners would all be buyers in the American League if the deadline dropped right now. The same can be said for the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Braves, Dodgers, Marlins, Brewers, Giants, Padres, Phillies, Mets and maybe even the Reds in the National League.
Those who would be definitive sellers include the Royals, Athletics, Nationals and Rockies.
Then there are the teams living life in the American and National Leagues' Central Division occupants whose existences are up for debate because of the hope mediocrity has offered. The Guardians (30-34, 2 1/2 games out of first-place), the White Sox (29-37, 4 1/2 games back), Tigers (26-36, 5 1/2 games back), Cubs (28-36, 5 1/2 games back) and Cardinals (27-38, 7 games back) can all make the case they are talented enough to catch their division's respective first-place club with just one hot streak.
Then there are the Red Sox.
Unlike those aforementioned Central teams, the Red Sox are chasing a spot in the Wild Card conversation. Now, what is interesting about that reality is that the best spot of all the Wild Card candidates might be the third spot, considering that club would play the Central Division first-place team.
In other words, even without home field advantage, the Red Sox taking on the Twins in a best-of-three series might be worth prioritizing.
But the cold-hearted decision Bloom will have to make is this: Are this version of the Red Sox worth making even 2021-level additions to?
It seems hard to believe that the Red Sox will execute a strategy mirroring last trade deadline - going halfway in and halfway out. And while there aren't the big ticket items that Bloom set an exorbitant asking price on (J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi) in the conversation this time around, there are pieces who would represent logical pieces of a sellers strategy.
Kiké Hernandez. James Paxton. Adam Duvall. Justin Turner. They would all have value and are slated to be free agent-eligible after the season. (Duvall and Turner have player options for 2014.) Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen, Nick Pivetta and Alex Verdugo can be free agents after 2024 and might also enter into the conversations.
The payoff? You would probably get to see the likes of Ceddanne Rafaela sooner than later, while hoping that somewhere within the return for the jettisoned players would uncover a legitimate foundation piece (or pieces) for 2024.
And then there is the flip-side: What if the Red Sox want to make a run at it without putting a dent in their farm system? In 2021, Bloom got three useful pieces (Kyle Schwarber, Hansel Robles and Austin Davis) for three players who haven't come close to the majors. Aldo Ramirez (the price for Schwarber) hasn't pitched above Single-A and that was back in 2021. Alex Scherff (the price for Robles) is a Double-A relief pitcher, the same lot in life he was living two years ago in the Red Sox system. And Michael Chavis (the price for Davis) was designated for assignment by the Pirates last year.
The point is that there are useful moves to be made that won't gut your organization for a team like the Red Sox. The question is whether or not they want to put in the dent in the here and now (2023) in exchange for what might be down the road.
Right now, it's a complicated conversation. To be continued ... probably after Sunday night's game against the Yankees.
