Checking in on the Red Sox' reality
MIAMI - On the day of the Major League Baseball trade deadline, the Tigers possessed a 1.3 percent chance of making the postseason, per Fangraphs. They now are 1 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot, with the gift that is a three-game series against the White Sox looming in the final days of the regular season.
The Red Sox' current chances according to FanGraphs stand at 2.9 percent to secure a spot in the playoffs, with Alex Cora's club sitting four games behind the Twins for the final postseason position.
In the words of Jim Carrey, so you're saying there is a chance.
Kind of.
The Red Sox last opportunity to keep their head above water comes this week with three games against the Rays in St. Petersburg, Fla. before hosting the Twins for three at Fenway Park. Considering both the Mariners and red-hot Tigers reside between the Sox and Minnesota - and Detroit owns those aforementioned regular-seaon-ending games against Chicago - logic would suggest some sort of winning streak is non-negotiable.
It could happen. The Red Sox swept the Rays the last time the two teams played in Tropicana Field. And as uninspiring as the Sox have been in recent weeks, the Twins are just 7-14 in the last three weeks.
But the room for error is smaller than most are aware of.
For starters, even if the Red Sox win all three games against the Rays, without a sweep of the Twins the Red Sox postseason chances become beyond miniscule. Even if Boston takes two of three against Minnesota - evening the season series between the teams at 3-3 - Rocco Baldelli's club will own the tie-breaker because of a better intradivision record.
There is also that same sort of looming reality when it comes to the Tigers, who are actually 3 1/2 ahead of the Red Sox thanks to having won the season series between the teams (thereby owning the tiebreaker).
Then there is the piece of the equation that should elicit the most doubt in the Red Sox' chances: They have won more than two games in a row ONCE since July 5. Conversely, the Tigers have four four-game win streaks over that span, and one six-gamer.
As much as the image of this year's Red Sox team might seem different than the edition from a year ago, the results have been remarkably the same. In the 42 games since Aug. 1, both clubs share an 18-24 record. Through 150 games, the 2024 Red Sox claim a one game lead on the 2023 Red Sox.
But it's more than just tiebreakers, schedules and records. The Red Sox have been taking on water for some time now, with their attempts at patching the leaks consistently failing.
Now, at the worst time, the ship is sinking seemingly faster than ever.
The Red Sox simply haven't been able to go-to their go-to guys, with Rafael Devers, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Triston Casas all possessing sub.-.600 OPS since the start of this month.
And while the starting staff has certainly held its own in Sept., combining for a 3.03 ERA, the idea of potentially not having its ace - Tanner Houck - offers the feeling of a bridge too far.
Then there is bullpen.
Lately, the images of newcomers Zach Penrod and Luis Guerrero - along with the recent effectiveness of Josh Winckowski, Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin - have offered glimmers of hope. But it still is tough to look at this as anything but a too-little-too-late scenario. While the Red Sox are trying to shake off the worst relief-pitching numbers in baseball since the All-Star break, the teams they are primarily living lock-down lives in the late innings.
(Oh, and the team the Red Sox will be trying to sweep over the next three days, the Rays, happen to have one of the best bullpens in baseball over the past two months.)
To summarize, we are going to find out in short order if this is even a picture worth looking at. For now? It's getting pretty blurry in a hurry.
