The Boston Red Sox covered the (+1.5) in Sunday’s win over the New York Yankees. And while it was their fifth ATS win in the last seven games, they’re still seven games below .500 at 41-48 (.461) against the spread.
At this point last year, they were 47-42 (.528). What is most responsible for the dip in ATS winning percentage?
Home games.
The Red Sox have covered in only 14 of 43 games at Fenway Park. At .326, they have the worst home ATS winning percentage in baseball, well below the next closest team:
Red Sox: .326
Rays: .354
Blue Jays: .356
Cubs: .370
Padres: .375
Through 43 home games last year, they were 20-23 (.465). (Those 43 home games came in their first 86 overall games).
More specifically, the Sox have been terrible as a favorite at home.
They’re 6-23 (.207) as a run-line favorite. If, for example, you faded them with a $100 in each home game, you’d be up more than $700 for an ROI of approximately 26%.
In their first 43 home games last year, Boston was a favorite 21 times. They covered in nine of those games (.426) en route to a season-long home favorite ATS record of 19-28 (.404).
The BetMGM online sportsbook has MLB odds for each Red Sox game this season. There are also Red Sox odds for futures, including World Series odds and Cy Young odds.
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