BIB Notes: The Red Sox desperately need to pick a philosophy and finally stick with it (and other thoughts)

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Zack Scott rode the wave of Red Sox decision-making during his 16 years with the organization, ultimately having a front row seat to one of the most notable forks in the road in recent Sox history - the Mookie Betts negotiations.

When asked about the decision by the Red Sox not meet Betts' contract asks, Scott said on the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast, "I think it was more $350 million or whatever we thought it might cost, those were bad deals in general. That was sort of the philosophy of the time, of the moment. Which I say because I was there when Jon Lester, it was the philosophy of the moment not to sign pitchers in their 30's beyond a certain number of years and then we sign David Price.

"It's like, if your philosophies are always changing do you actually have a philosphy. You want to have some consistency. And it's hard to have a philosophy when you change GMs every four years. It is. But where is the philosophy coming from? It's obviously at the organization level because the organization is bigger than any GM. That to me is one of the challenges there because everything is kind of a moving target. That makes the GM's job really difficult because we might feel that way today but some circumstances might change where we have to pivot and be more aggressive. And the philosophies need to be based on really sound thinking and not just this is how I feel at the moment."

Exactly.

The counter to what Scott - who now runs the consulting firm 'Four Rings Sports' after his stint in the Red Sox' front office and as the Mets general manager - is saying is that the Sox' decision-makers are adjusting to what they are dealing with in terms of prospects and existing contracts.

But the reality is that the paths taken by Sox ownership in the last 10 years has truly been all over the place. In short, there has definitely been a chasing their tail-kind of vibe from Ben Cherington, to Dave Dombrowski, to Chaim Bloom, and now to Craig Breslow.

Compare that to the for-the-most-part straight line executed by the Dodgers since Andrew Friedman took over following the 2014 season and the Red Sox' plan look like one of those win probability charts from Game 1 in this year's World Series.

Even in the last year, the messaging has been careful to not pound us over the head with talk of "sustainability" (even if that continues to be the goal), to something along the lines of Breslow recently said on the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast:

"We are preparing to be more decisive, more aggressive."

Forget about more aggressive. You can go back to the last few offseasons and suggest there were instances of aggression. We get it, you made the same offer to Zach Eflin as the Rays. So what? Did you factor in he was from that area, the difference in taxes or that you are the BOSTON RED SOX competing against the Tampa Bay Rays? That kind of aggressiveness isn't going to get it done.

In the Red Sox world right now, "more aggressive" has to be a tip of the chapeau to the way life used to be when for years upon years upon years they simply weren't going to lose out on a free agent that was truly in their crosshairs.

It's hard to remember, but there was quite a long stretch of never being beat to the player-acquisition punch. We're talking two notable top tier names - Mark Teixeira (2009) and Jon Lester (2014) - from 2004 until the departure of Dave Dombrowski in 2019.

The true word that should resonate is "decisive." That will be the difference-maker. That will be a step toward the kind of philosophy - and approach - that should be, as they also like to say, the Red Sox' "North Star."

Fair or not, in among a lot of good that was done during the previous regime's tenure was the constant murmur throughout baseball that decisiveness was not the Red Sox' strong suit. There wasn't the willingness to get as uncomfortable as is needed in competing for important players, with too much perceived stock put on who the Sox had to give up rather than the players they were identifying in getting back.

This has to be a big part of the sea change.

If Garrett Crochet is perceived to be a piece of what is becoming a very palatable foundation, then give up the guys needed to get him. It will undoubtedly hurt. But part of competing with the big boys is having confidence in the players who will truly put you over the top and doing whatever it takes (within reason) to get them.

Baltimore did it with Corbin Burnes. The Yankees did it with Juan Soto. The Padres did it with ... a bunch of guys. And the Dodgers did it, first through their financial might in the offseason, and then at the trade deadline.

Decide who will give you a chance to win a World Series, and make a move for those players. That is the kind of decisiveness that Sox fans should hope Breslow speaks of.

That should be the philosophy the Red Sox grab on to and don't let go of.

And speaking of Crochet ...

GAUGING THE RED SOX' PITCHING PRIORITIES

In about a direct declaration as we have heard from Breslow, the CBO has said that he will be on the lookout for a starting pitcher who could be relied upon to start in a postseason run. As he points out, the team already has candidates to do exactly that in Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito. But none of the group is entering 2025 with the no-questions-asked ability to represent a get-on-my-back presence in October.

And, certainly, there are no certainties in any of the options awaiting in free agency. Corbin Burnes probably comes the closest, having just turned in the only eight-inning outing of any starter this past postseason. Jack Flaherty was an up-and-down option in his 22 innings through the playoffs. Blake Snell has lived the life, pitching in 12 October games. (It should be noted that Scott Boras was immediately pounding the table at last year's GM meetings of how good a fit Snell would be at Fenway Park.)

Then you have the likes of another two more lefties, Yusei Kikuchi and Sean Manaea, both who will be 33 years old on Opening Day. And another name not to sleep on is Shane Bieber, who told BIB he should have a normal spring training after missing almost the entire year with Tommy John surgery.

But if you're looking at two pitchers who should offer the most intrigue for filling that gap Breslow identified it might be wise to zero in on this pair: Max Fried and Crochet.

Start with Fried, who his high school teammate - Giolito - has already told us he has started to recruit the lefty. It makes sense, not only because of his relationship with a current member of the Sox rotation but also because he is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and throws with a hand none of the other current Sox starts throw with ... his left.

But maybe the Red Sox simply don't want to dive into the world of a high-priced, 30-year-old starter (with a qualifying offer attached). But, once again, if they do deem Fried as a guy who can serve as the organization's long-term anchor then they shouldn't be shy.

Then there is Crochet.

This wouldn't be the kind of Chris Sale slam dunk Dombrowski executed when dealing away two of the top prospects in the game after the 2016 season. That pitcher had made five straight All-Star appearances by the age of 27 years old, totaling three seasons of 208 innings or better.

Crochet's first major league start came this season, having totaled just more than 200 combined innings in college and the pros over five years before getting his chance to enter a big league rotation in 2024.

And the final three months certainly did nothing to cement the kind of certainty one might be looking for when going all-in for a starter, with the 25-year-old not pitching more than four innings once in his 14 starts since July 6.

But between the way he started - making the American League All-Star team with a 3.02 ERA - and finished (18 strikeouts, 1 run and 1 walk over his last 12 innings). And, as was the case with Sale, Crochet has two more years of control.

There are certainly safer avenues to venture when securing this top-of-the-rotation starter. But considering age, upside, and opportunity to potentially lock in a long-term extension that won't handcuff you with a pitcher in their late-30's, Crochet should offer as much intrigue as anyone.

WHO MADE THEMSELVES SOME MONEY IN OCTOBER?

It's a time-honored tradition. Free agents-to-be significantly increasing their offseason value thanks to a few weeks in October. In 2018, both Joe Kelly - who almost didn't make the postseason roster - and Nathan Eovaldi most likely doubled their free agent hauls thanks to heroics in the playoffs.

This time around the winners were ...

Blake Treinen: To witness what he did during the postseason while living life as the Dodgers' highest-leverage reliever presented the kind of impression teams aspiring for postseason glory won't be able to ignore.

Teoscar Hernandez: Yes, he might have a qualifying offer attached, but that sting might be tempered thanks to his presence as the legitimate fourth threat - after Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freedie Freeman - in the Dodgers' batting order. He hit .350 with a .931 OPS in the World Series while coming up with some very impressive outfield throws when it counted the most.

Kiké Hernandez: While hitting .229 with a .654 OPS during the regular season wasn't likely going to get Hernandez a multi-year contract, what he did - both offensively and defensively - in the postseason might. In 10 playoff appearances, the former Red Sox hit .385 with a 1.082 OPS with runners in scoring position.

Walker Buehler: The starter's strong finish - culminating in his memorable Game 5 ninth inning - might land him with a qualifying offer, which considering his 5.38 ERA in the regular season, might be tough to turn down.

Clay Holmes: The former Yankees closer was able to push aside an up-and-down second half with reliable postseason run. He won't get what many thought was on the horizon heading into the season's second half, but Holmes did resurface the suggestion that he can be a potential closer for somebody.

One Yankee who was trending toward a postseason push, Gleyber Torres, saw the World Series serve as his sad trombone. Torres' OPS in the first two rounds was .867 and .802, respectively. But against the Dodgers he went just 3-for-21.

TYLER VS. TEOSCAR

When you ask a front office member to identify who is better, one player or another, and get the answer, "That's a good question ..." then, well, you know it's a good question.

So, the Red Sox need someone possessing the skill-set along the lines of what Tyler O'Neill and Teoscar Hernandez present.

Hernandez is entering Opening Day, 2025 at 32 years old, while O'Neill will be 29. Hernandez is undoubtedly going to be offered a qualifying offer by the Dodgers, while it isn't known if O'Neill will get such treatment from the Red Sox.

Analytics suggest O'Neill is a better outfielder than Hernandez, although neither had an above-average season in the field in 2024. Both, however, wouldn't be perceived as liabilities when playing left field at Fenway Park.

Speaking of Fenway, Hernandez has said numerous times that Fenway is one of his favorites places to play and would have been calling it home in 2024 if the Sox increased their offer of two years, $28 million last offseason.

As was was evident in his first year in Boston, O'Neill's swing was tailor-made for Fenway, as was evident with his 10 home homers. Something else that should be noted: Only one player in baseball - Aaron Judge - had a better OPS against lefties than O'Neill in 2024.

Both are perceived as next-level positive clubhouse influences, with Hernandez amplifying that reputation during the Dodgers' postseason run.

The move might be for the Red Sox to offer O'Neill a qualifying offer, see if he doesn't take it and then potentially using the payoff of the Boras client signing elsewhere as a buffer to sign Hernandez (who would necessitate losing a pick along with whatever years and money are allocated).

This we do know: Both would be extremely all-around good fits for what the Red Sox are looking for.

As a quick aside, I am anxiously anticipating Boras' play on words when it comes to describing the merits of O'Neill at the GM Meetings. Suggestion (with H/T to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet in Toronto): "Tyler O'Neill, man of O'Steel."

BULLPEN LESSONS

Yes, it happened: For the first time in major league history relievers threw more postseason innings than starters. The final total was 394 1/3 innings for the relief pitchers, who outdistanced the starting pitchers by 28 1/3 frames.

The world champs were the primary example of what we were dealing with, finishing with 82 relief innings compared to 60 from their starters.

So, what can we learn from this? Maybe not what you think.

Some might suggest this is proof you need to keep peppering the major league roster with a bunch of pitchers with potential, hoping some of them stick thanks to your pitching development program. That's true. Look at Luke Weaver. But understand that when you get to that point in the season that's only a fraction of the battle.

1. If at all possible, build in breaks for pitchers - especially starters - and not try to just limit pitch counts. This is a must. There were too many examples in the postseason - even involving the final two teams - not to take heed of this reality. Because of the max-effort environment we are living in, getting through a season is more challenging than ever, a fact teams are going to start having to take into account.

2. Build bullpens around veterans who know their lot in life, understand how to bounce back from failure, can manage the demands of a season and postseason, won't be chasing major league survival, and won't shy away from the biggest moments. The Dodgers? They had a bunch of them.

3. Make sure you have at least two (and preferably three) starters who are positioned to take on those third-time-through-the-order games in order to protect the wave of relievers that will ultimately be relied upon. Bullpen games work ... until they don't. And, thanks to familiarity with seeing arms and the over-use of relievers, it's a turn that can happen in a blink of an eye.

AND SOME OTHER THINGS ...

- Congratulations to James Paxton on collecting his World Series ring while living life as a retired player. One noteworthy take from the pitcher when appearing on the BIB podcast was how he viewed the Red Sox' needs heading into 2025:

"I think they could use another veteran presence on that team and if they want to win a World Series I could see them going out and getting one more big-time player to go out there and, OK, give the players some confidence. “We’re going for it. We’re doing it.” And the starting rotation, you have talent. You have young talent. Getting (Lucas) Giolito back, that will be a big get. I think they probably need to go out and get a horse in my opinion. I think if you want to win a World Series you have to go out there and have a 1A and 1B at the very least. I think (Tanner) Houck and Giolito are both capable of that, but you know how a baseball season goes. You never know what’s going to happen. I think they could use another guy in that rotation. And bullpens are hard. It’s year to year. You see guys who have great years, have a bad year, have a great year. So you kind of piece together a bullpen and it changes throughout a season very often."

- Wondering what would have happened with the Red Sox if they allocated the resources to acquire the players secured by the Dodgers at the trade deadline - Jack Flaherty, Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman. Maybe the Sox ultimately were running on too many fumes across the board. But considering the less-than-spectacular landscape that ended up being the American League, it would have made things appreciably more interesting. And, considering what was needed to secure the players' services, I do believe it would have been worth the gamble.

- Speaking of Kopech, his evolution should be inspiring. Most Red Sox fans know his journey from first-round pick, to troubled minor leaguer, to key piece of the Chris Sale trade, to inconsistent and oft-injured member of a dysfunctional White Sox organization. But then he landed with the Dodgers as a high-leverage reliever, ultimately key piece in the final moments of the champs' season.

One moment that highlighted Kopech's maturity came after he walked Anthony Rizzo in the ninth inning of Game 3, following up the free pass with a wild pitch. One batter later, Alex Verdugo caught up to one of of a series of angry 100 mph fastballs from the righty for a two-run homer. Dodgers third baseman teammate Max Muncy immediately came to the mound to settle down Kopech. The reason? The New York dugout had been very aggressively heckling the pitcher, a tactic from the Yankees members of the Guardians had also noticed.

Kopech gathered himself and proceeded get Gleyber Torres on a ground out to end the game. He came back to pitch a scoreless inning in the fifth and final game, punctuating a postseason that saw him strike out 10 over nine innings while giving up runs in just two of his 10 outings.

The 28-year-old - who hired Boras in July - appears to be on his way to discovering his major league calling. He, by the way, will be free agent-eligible after next season.

- Brennan Bernardino, who dominated in the season's first two months before running into some downturns in the season's second half, is already in the process of trying to take another step in 2025. The lefty is in Fort Myers, Fla. participating in a Red Sox-sponsored/Driveline-inspired throwing program to increase his velocity. He is also working on a new changeup.

- Wilyer Abreu has won the Gold Glove. Chaim, take a bow. Note: That 2022 trade deadline deserves its own Netflix special.

- Something to keep an eye on: The Red Sox making a serious push to getting the MLB All-Star Game for 2029. It isn't lost on them (or MLB) that it will be the 30th anniversary of Fenway hosting perhaps the greatest All-Star festivities of them all. Olnly the next two are spoken for to date: Atlanta in 2025 and 2026 being played in Philadelphia.

- We leave you with this moment of baseball Zen from Rob Lowe ...