It is a tempting narrative: Red Sox pitchers are suddenly struggling due to MLB’s crackdown on sticky substances.
Too bad the numbers don’t back it up at all.
Indeed, Red Sox starters have slumped since MLB announced it would suspend pitchers for 10 days if they’re caught rubbing illicit substances on baseballs — from sunscreen mixed with rosin to the much-talked-about Spider Tack. Prior to Monday’s 2-1 victory over the Blue Jays, the Red Sox had surrendered 53 runs over their last six games, an average of 8.83 runs per contest.
Back in May, Red Sox pitchers gave up 37 runs in seven games against the two elite offenses.
Making matters worse, Nathan Eovaldi, who got the start in Yankee Stadium the night Sports Illustrated dropped its cover story about pitchers abusing foreign substances, experienced drops in his spin rate on four pitches that evening.
But as it turns out, that performance was an anomaly. The Globe’s Alex Speier crunched the numbers, and found there’s been “virtually no change” in the spin rate of any of Boston starters’ four-seam fastball, curveball or slider. In fact, Garrett Richards has seen his spin rate increase since the beginning of the month. That’s significant, since Richards has one of the top spin rates in the league.
Yet, he’s seemingly been unaffected by the increased enforcement. But unfortunately, these kinds of questions will dog every pitcher for the remainder of the season.
They are partially to blame for their own plight, abusing the age-old practice of doctoring baseballs and putting on a plodding product to boot. Every pitch appears to involve an enhanced rubdown and multiple sign shake-offs. It is an excruciating routine to watch.
So far, there has been a correlation between the threatened crackdown and more runs being scored during games. Since June 5, MLB hitters are slashing .247/.319/.417. Prior to that, they were slashing .236/.312/.395.
But if MLB commissioner Rob Manfred wants to cast blame for the depressed offense league-wide, he should also look inward. The league bought Rawlings in 2018 so it could hold more control over baseballs, meaning MLB is responsible for the yearly alterations. Before this season, MLB made some minor alterations in an attempt to make the ball “less bouncy,” The Athletic reports. (And yes, it’s insane that the actual baseball changes each year, but I digress.)
Instead of taking responsibility, MLB is scapegoating its players, recreating ugly witch hunts against subterfuge last seen during the height of the Steroid Era. Pitchers have been doctoring baseballs for a millennia. There was a much better way to address this problem than to drop a bombshell scoop in SI.
But here we are, and the investigations are now happening in the public arena. That’s not good news for the Red Sox, who are managed by Alex Cora, a central figure in the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal. The Red Sox were also disciplined for their own sign-stealing practices, though they blamed a rogue video operator for the infraction.
The data says Red Sox starting pitchers aren’t being adversely impacted. Facts, however, don’t always alter perceptions, especially when there's an admitted cheater in the dugout.
