The warning signs are starting to pop up.
The Red Sox are nestled into their postseason fate, cemented in the second wild-card spot, most likely planning their approach against Cam Schlittler and the Yankees on Sept. 29 in New York. After the 4-2 loss to the Rangers Tuesday night, Chad Tracy's team's Magic Number sits at five, with either one of their wins or Cleveland's losses putting a dent in the digit.
And, yes, they got a healthier Willson Contreras back.
And, yes, Garrett Crochet took another step toward being available for the postseason with a 30-pitch throwing session on the mound at Fenway Park.
And, yes, Ceddanne Rafaela is nearing his return from a quad injury.
And, yes, Mickey Gasper got on base two more times.
But as we sit here with 11 regular-season games left, it would be foolish not to surface some elements of this equation that need fixing before October.
To begin with, those 15 strikeouts against the Rangers tied a season high, which they had set three other times. It was a microcosm of a problem. The Red Sox are swinging and missing too much and not walking enough. This month, they have the eighth-most strikeouts and seventh-fewest walks. That doesn't play in the postseason. Making contact does.
At the top of the list of players the Red Sox need to get the bat on the ball more is Roman Anthony, who fanned twice in the series opener against the Rangers and now has the third-most strikeouts of any MLB player in September. He has also not walked in his last six games. It's not as though there is any expectation that Anthony can't be an enormous part of the solution in October, even with some swing-and-miss, but it is clear this team is relying on the really good version of the outfielder.
Every postseason run is built on a couple of alphas in the lineup, those who the opposition understands are going to be the toughest to navigate around. Anthony is one of the Red Sox's best candidates.
If you look at last season's World Series run by the Blue Jays, for instance, Toronto had five players with an OPS of .842 or better throughout the playoffs. And their top guy, Vlad Guerrero Jr., managed his output (which included 8 homers) while striking out just seven times in 89 plate appearances.
The example of a team that is primed to use the Blue Jays' 2025 postseason formula is this year's Rays. They have had fewer strikeouts this month than any club in MLB, while hitting the third-most home runs. And as for that be-all, end-all, Vlad-type presence, look no further than Junior Caminero, who is closing in on his 45 years of a year ago with 41, so far.
It's not to say that the Red Sox and their top-of-the-order threats, such as Anthony, Contreras, and Wilyer Abreu , can't put their best foot forward when the lights are brightest in a couple of weeks. But it would certainly behoove the Red Sox to reverse some of these trends in the coming days.
There have been occasional reminders of how good this can be for this team since the two-month anniversary of their resurrection (Aug. 25), but not nearly as many as there need to be. Their record since the 26th of last month is 9-10 while the Yankees and Rays have the first (14) and second (13) most wins, respectively, in the majors. It is also a stretch that the Sox's starting pitchers have gone just 6-9.
Over the last 19 games, the Red Sox have the fourth-lowest OPS in baseball while attempting the fewest steals. Conversely, in the well-documented two months prior - the run where they went 41-13 - the Sox owned the second-best OPS, the 19th-fewest strikeouts, the fifth-most walks, and the sixth-most stolen base attempts.
It can all turn, as this Red Sox team has reminded us in historically powerful fashion earlier this year. And wins and losses don't necessarily have to be the be-all, end-all. But the Sox have to understand what is around the corner and how performances like the one turned in Tuesday night simply won't play.
Consider these last couple of weeks a warning shot for the Red Sox. Soon comes the real thing.
