The first thing to figure out when trying to predict the Red Sox' Opening Day roster is exactly how many pitchers Alex Cora is planning on breaking camp with.
Fourteen?
"As of now, that’s the talk," said Alex Cora Saturday morning when asked about the number of hurlers. "I think it benefits us … Obviously, with the guys that we have in the rotation it’s going to help us out. We have some off days early on but then we have a tough stretch. I don’t know how many games in a row (16 straight). That will be good. And obviously with the two guys that we signed, Enrique (Hernandez) and Marwin (Gonzalez), that’s possible."
That leaves the Red Sox with three bench players.
So, let's look at the locks:
Pitchers (13): Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Richards, Martin Perez, Nick Pivetta, Matt Andriese, Darwinzon Hernandez, Josh Taylor, Ryan Brasier, Matt Barnes, Adam Ottavino, Hirokazu Sawamura, Phillips Valdez.
Hitters (11): J.D. Martinez, Bobby Dalbec, Enrique Hernandez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, Hunter Renfroe, Marwin Gonzalez, Christian Vazquez, Kevin Plawecki, Franchy Cordero.
There are some legitimate debates when it comes to that last spot among the pitchers. The three names that should bubble up are Austin Brice, Colten Brewer and Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock.
Brewer, who struggled in his last spring training outing, is probably on the outside looking in considering he has an option and can be sent to the minors. Brice is out of options and would have to make the team or be sent through waivers. And if Whitlock doesn't make the club he will be sent back to the Yankees.
It would seem that this decision primarily comes down to what they see from Whitlock over the next few weeks. Thus far, he has looked like a major league pitcher.
Christian Arroyo has firmly put himself as the leader in the clubhouse when it comes to getting that final position player spot, hitting .300 (6-for-20) with an .814 OPS and one home run. He has hit the ball hard virtually every time up, while showing an ability to supply solid defense at both second base and shortstop.
If Arroyo emerges at second, it would also free up Hernandez to fill in whatever gaps are needed in the outfield.
"Better athlete than what I saw on TV," said Cora regarding Arroyo. "Actually, I recruited Christian for the ’17 WBC, saw him play a little bit. But he was bigger. Now he has done a good job physically. He’s moving well at second and short. Good at-bats. Great competitor. Very hard on himself. Very impressed with the way he goes about his business. Happy that he is performing this way."
It might be a more interesting conversation if Michael Chavis didn't have options. The infielder, whose conditioning is significantly better than in recent years, has excelled thus far, hitting three home runs to along with .333 batting average (7-for-21) and 1.201 OPS.
"Good teams have tough decisions to make and we feel we have a good team," Cora said. "They are playing well. They are versatile. That’s the theme of our spring training. We can move them around. Both of them have made adjustments offensively. You can see it with Michael (Chavis), not because he’s hitting home runs but he’s actually more disciplined with the pitch up in the zone. That’s a good problem to have, right? Some good players battling for a spot and making it hard on us. They are doing their job and we have to make a decision later on."
There is a path for both Arroyo and Chavis to make the Opening Day roster. That's with the Red Sox slow-playing the return of Franchy Cordero, who is still easing his way into Grapefruit League games. The other option if Cordero isn't ready to go would be Jairo Munoz (who has had a good camp), who would need to be placed on the 40-man roster.
“There’s always a chance, right? But we have to be very careful how we push him, because his health is more important than making the Opening Day roster," said Cora when asked if Cordero would be ready for April 1.
