Last summer, Julius Randle was the Knicks top free agent signing. They paid him on a three-year deal (with only a partial $4 million dollar partial guarantee) at just over $20 million dollars a year. It is undoubtedly a contract the franchise would like to have back.
If you look at Randle's raw numbers, people on the outside looking in might wonder why that's the case. Once Marcus Morris was gone, Randle led the team in scoring (19.5 ppg). His 9.7 rebounds per game also led the team. He also finished second on the team in assists at 3.1 per game.
Randle's true shooting percentage (53.8%) and effective field goal percentage (.492) were his lowest since 2015-2016, but they were still respectable numbers when compared to his teammates, especially considering his shot volume. His .460/.277/.733 shooting numbers were still good, though a dip in his efficiency on two- and three-point shots is noticeable when compared to prior seasons. Being thrust into a role as a number one option on a team with poor spacing can probably explain much of the drop.
The people on the outside looking in at his box score stats would be making the same mistake the Knicks did when they decided to make Julius Randle the centerpiece of their 2020-2021 offseason. Randle was a frustrating player to watch, and while his shot-making ability helped the Knicks win a couple of more games than they would have if he wasn't on the roster, his style ultimately had a negative impact on where the Knicks were trying to go.
Despite averaging three assists per game, Randle would often become a black hole, where the basketball would go and never come out again. He would flash good vision and passing ability occasionally, but too often his eyes were locked on only one thing: the basket. It was where the basketball was going to go no matter what the defense did. His shot selection left a lot to be desired.
The lasting vision for most Knicks fans from the 2019-2020 season will be Julius Randle barreling full speed to the basket, spinning in the lane against multiple defenders, and the ball ultimately winding up with the other team. He averaged nearly as many turnovers per game (3.0) as assists (3.1). The second lasting scene will be Randle refusing to give the ball to Barrett or Ntilikina so he can bring the ball down the floor himself. Things got slightly better with Mike Miller as head coach due to improved spacing, but the results still weren't nearly good enough.
Randle, at least not in his current form, cannot be the top or even second scoring option for a team. He can put the ball the in the basket, but the number of other good things that can happen when the ball is in his hands were too limited for him to be the focal point of the offense. He has plenty of talent, skill and ability, but lacks the basketball instincts and decision making necessary to be a winning player. The problem for Randle is that improved decision making, which comes from good basketball instincts, is hard to improve. If he hasn't developed them by age 25 and six seasons in the league, will he ever?
If Randle played good defense it might make up for some of his poor tendencies on offense. He doesn't. He loses focus and just leave good shooters open at critical times late in games. His defensive rotations are not consistent. He has a very low motor on that end of the floor. When he had a 60% true shooting percentage some of that could be overlooked, but not the way he played this year.
Randle is the guy you play with at the park that might be the most talented guy there, but doesn't win as often as he should. You get put on his team and you think it is a good thing, but even if you win the game you don't have much fun doing it because of the way he plays. The ball doesn't move enough and he often dogs it on defense, only appearing to be interesting in getting the ball in his hands.
Some might argue Randle was hamstrung by the lack of a top point guard to get him easy shots, but Elfrid Payton liked nothing more than to force feed Randle the ball. Randle also refused to ever roll to the basic on screen and rolls, instead insisting on getting the ball at a standstill and charging into a set defense.
Randle's outsized gravitational force (27.6% usage) on offense hurt the Knicks' young players, especially RJ Barrett, who needed the ball in his hands more this season. Instead, too often the Knicks became the Julius Randle – Elfrid Payton show with the two just passing to one another over and over again while Barrett, part of the Knicks' future, stood around watching.
A team's best player should embody the characteristics that you want his young teammates to emulate, but Randle does the opposite. His selfish style and lack of focus defensively is the opposite of the example that you want to set for the young players on the team.
Randle's remaining 1+1 contract shouldn't be impossible to move but the league's dropping BRI (Basketball Related Income) might make his contract too rich. The Knicks would probably have to sweeten the pot to hasten a salary dump of Randle's contract. Depending on the cost, it might be worth it given how Randle seems to be actively hurting the Knicks young core from having chances to do more things on the floor and lead the team.
As Leon Rose decides how he wants to shape the roster, he needs to conclude that the team can't proceed on a sustainable winning path with Randle as a centerpiece of the team. How he decides to resolve the Randle situation will help define the early part of his Knicks tenure.
You can find John on twitter at @Schmeelk for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports. The most recent episode is part two of my interview with Dallas A'mico that could can find here. You can subscribe to The Bank Shot, John's Knicks podcast, here.
