On Wednesday, NBA Insider's Mike Vorkunov and Shams Charania reported that Knicks president Leon Rose was finally ready to begin his coaching search and was hoping to make the hire within a few weeks. The timetable could be pushed back if the Knicks were asked to play when the NBA finally returns to play at the end of July, since Mike Miller would be asked to coach those games.
The report, many of the details of which were later confirmed by other Knicks beat writers, indicated three candidates would secure interviews: Tom Thibodeau, Kenny Atkinson, and interim head coach Mike Miller. Thibodeau, according to the report, and in-line with many of the rumors since Rose's hire, is the leader in the clubhouse.
I already wrote extensively about why the Knicks should pursue Atkinson as their next head coach. Due to his player development history that matches the Knicks young roster, and his embrace of modern day offensive and defensive philosophies, he seems like the perfect fit. Atkinson, much like Thibodeau, has a reputation for being more of a disciplinarian, which is necessary when trying to mold an inexperienced team.
Thibodeau is not a bad basketball coach, despite his 97-107 record with the Timberwolves over two-and-a-half seasons. He knows the game, pays attention to details and knows how to get the most out of his players. Both the Bulls and Timberwolves improved when he took over. He has also developed players like Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson and Karl-Anthony Towns. There's no reason to doubt that the Knicks young players would improve under his tutelage, even if his track record isn't as recent or robust as Atkinson.
There are a few things in his history, however, that bear watching and raise some red flags.
The first is his tendency to play his starters, and specifically his best players, excess minutes. In his final full season with the Timberwolves, for example, Jimmy Butler averaged the third-most minutes in the NBA (36.7) and Andrew Wiggins averaged the ninth most (36.3). Karl-Anthony Towns was not far behind at 35.6 minutes per game (14th most in the league). All five of his starters ranked in the top 42 players in minutes played per game that season.
It was similar in Chicago, where Luol Deng, Joakim Noah (both of which declined quicker than usual) and Derrick Rose often played outsized minutes. Rose famously hurt himself one season playing needlessly late in a game that was not competitive. Though critics make a lot out of this tendency, it is the least of the issues that should concern Knicks fans most. Something like this is easily corrected.
Butler, for example, would have been right near the meat of the league in minutes per game if he played only four fewer per night. It would only take him resting two minutes more per half when he was out of the game. All it would take is a simple conversation between Thibodeau and Rose, who are close, when he is hired to keep all players under 35 minutes per game.
A bigger worry is Thibodeau's offensive philosophy. He can coach offense. The Timberwolves, for example, were ranked 10th, fourth, and fifth in offensive rating in the three seasons Thibodeau coached them. His teams scored rather well. They were 12th in pace in his final season there, but 23rd the prior two years.
He has done a number of interviews during his gap year this year, and has stressed that he believes offenses need to be diversified to win, especially in the playoffs. He argues defenses can adjust and offenses must be able to do different things, including scoring in the mid-range to be successful, especially in the playoffs. Broadly speaking, he is right.
With that said, Thibodeau's refusal to embrace the three-point shot while the rest of the league has is troubling. In his final half season in Minnesota, they were 23rd in the league in three-pointers per game. The two years prior to that, however, no team shot fewer threes than Minnesota in either season. They shot roughly the same number of threes his Bulls teams did a few years prior in 2014-2015, which ranked 16th in the league.
The rest of the league had changed in the meantime. The league leader in threes that year was the Rockets, who shot 32.7 threes per game, and the next team averaged just over 27. By 2017-18, the Rockets were shooting 42 threes per game, and the next team was averaging more than 35 per game.
Thibodeau's team, however, remained stagnant in that category until his final half season in Minnesota. They showed progress that year, jumping all the way to 28.5 threes per game from 22.5 per game. They were still ranked in the bottom quarter of the league.
Thibodeau's calling card has always been his defense. His traditional strategy, which helped the Celtics win their NBA championship in 2008, is to force side pick-and-rolls to the baseline. He does not like switching pick-and-rolls, and will instead employ a strict weakside rotation structure that cuts off drives and forces his players to close out on shooters. It was the premier defensive scheme in the league for a long time, but there's a case to be made that it has lost its luster.
With the emergence of the three-point shot as such a frequently used weapon, it makes so many rotations on the weak side very difficult. When teams spread the floor the way they do in the modern NBA, it is more difficult to execute. It is why so many NBA teams have decided to employ switching, which forces other teams to attack one-on-one and limit open three-pointers on catch-and-shoot opportunities.
In Thibodeau's three seasons coaching the Timberwolves, they ranked 27th, 25th, and 17th in defensive rating. Part of the issue was his defensive personnel. His middle pick-and-roll coverage puts a large onus on the center, which worked with Joakim Noah but did not with the defensively challenged Karl-Anthony Towns. Despite having strong defenders in Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson in his final full year with Minnesota, he was also playing defensively deficient players like Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins and Jamal Crawford major minutes. Was it the system or the personnel? It is a fair question to ask. The Bucks, for example, still play an excellent brand of defense focusing on cutting off the paint first.
There's also a chance Thibodeau has learned from many of his past mistakes. Coaches do change. He spent this season visiting different NBA and college teams to watch them practice and absorb some of the things they do to be successful. How will his style be different in his third coaching job?
Asking a tiger to change his stripes is a dangerous thing. Often times, people don't change with the times. Go ask Phil Jackson "how's it goink" with that. At worst, Thibodeau would still be the coach with the best track record that they've hired since Mike D'Antoni. He has won in the league at a high level and gotten to the Eastern Conference Finals as a head coach.
The Knicks desperately need stability at the head coaching position, which has been a veritable revolving door since Jeff Van Gundy quit at the turn of the century. With Rose's history with Thibodeau, it reasons he would be given time to install his system to succeed. Thibodeaux might not be the ideal candidate but he wouldn't be the worst one either.
You can find John on Twitter for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports at @Schmeelk. You can also find the Bank Shot, John's Knicks podcast on WFAN.com and most podcast platforms. You can subscribe to it here:
