I thought you could wager on anything sports-related in America. Unfortunately, I can't find odds to bet that the NBA won't finish the season.
Despite the media hype, the league, which suspended its season on March 11 due to the coronavirus pandemic, isn't even at the point where it can just "dot the i's" in its return-to-play plan.
Since this country has a collective attention span of a two-year old, there are many, including heads of states, who believe this pandemic has been all but eradicated. The facts suggest otherwise. According to the Washington Post, from the start of June, 14 states have experienced their highest seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases since the pandemic began.
One of those states is Florida, which happens to be where the NBA is planning to resume its season this summer. The NBA is in the midst of negotiating for the right to sequester all its necessary personnel at Disney World in Orlando.
The league and its Players Association did agree on a return-to-play format without fans in attendance last week. To limit exposure, only 22 of the 30 teams will be invited. Starting on July 30, they will each play eight regular season games prior to a postseason that includes the possibility of a play-in round between the eighth and ninth seeds in each conference, provided that the two teams' record margins were no more than four games.
While the players approved the format with minimal dissent, other issues related to the "bubble" environment remain somewhat sticky. According to Wednesday's report from ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, some expressed concerns during a conference call of an estimated 40-to-50 players.
In its preliminary safety protocols, the league intends to forbid exits out of the bubble and will not allow family members inside until a certain number may enter before the conference semifinals. As Wojnarowski noted, it's easy to see how some players from non-contending teams (and others on contenders) might not be thrilled with at least a seven-week period away from loved ones.
And let's not forget about the virus. The NBA will not be eliminating all risk in its resumption plan. It's not just about coaches of advanced ages or players with certain medical conditions. Even elite athletes in peak conditions have reason to fear the utter randomness of the disease.
A bubble isn't really a bubble if people can come in and out. Will families have to undergo a two-day quarantine in their Disney rooms (and register two negative COVID-19 tests) like the players reportedly will, per Marc Stein of the New York Times, upon their arrival? That's awkward.
Recent reports indicate that hotel workers will not even be part of the bubble. While masks and social distancing have proven to be effective mitigators, we still don't know all that we need to about transmission spread. Are outdoor activities really safer, or do conditions like wind affect the six-feet rule? Can droplets find their way onto food even when the preparer is wearing a mask? How does the virus move through vents? We're still in study mode. Remember, testing is not a perfect prevention technique and the World Health Organization's comment that asymptomatic carriers pose almost no threat had to be retracted.
So, where are these workers coming from? Most will surely be travelling to the site from their homes in Orange County, which has seen a 64% increase in COVID-19 cases since May 5, per the Orlando Sentinel. Half the new cases in the past two weeks were from people ages 20 to 40.
Whereas the COVID-19 curve of new cases here in New York City continues to slide downward, the relevant areas in Florida are seeing a rising trajectory. It might get even worse if Disney goes through with its parks' intended reopening on July 11, just after the NBA arrives in town.
Don't think the players haven't noticed. Wojnarowski reported that the league and the union are discussing a plan to allow players to stay home, though they wouldn't be paid for missed games. No player has hinted yet that they will pass on returning.
Maybe some will be keenly watching how Major League Soccer handles their situation. MLS announced that they will be running a World Cup-style tournament at the same Disney complex starting on July 8. MLS commissioner Don Garber hinted on Thursday that he is investigating whether to allow NBA players to actually attend tournament matches.
Most of MLS' safety protocols will be similar to those proposed by the NBA and, like basketball, soccer is a contact sport with tons of man-on-man marking. How secure is their bubble? If one player gets infected, can the virus be contained so as to not spread through the team's locker room? Or opposing team's locker rooms? If not, at what point does MLS say, "Enough"?
The idea that these leagues can complete their seasons is no slam dunk. I just can't give you the odds.
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