All four division winners? Eliminated. That includes the defending champions (Washington Capitals), the overwhelming favorites (Tampa Bay Lightning), the young, energetic teen spirits (Calgary Flames) and the boys from tune town (Nashville Predators).
Add to the mix the Toronto Maple Leafs, who Toronto media mostly thought were a shoo-in for the second round. I mean, they got Tavares, right? The Pittsburgh Penguins, with all their offensive firepower and, arguably, the best player in the sport. Watching from home. The Winnipeg Jets, exciting and fast and now grounded. Last year's darlings of the post-season, the Vegas Golden Knights, coming up snake eyes.
All four wild-card teams? Moving on.
What it all means is that we now present you with Hunger Games: Mocking Favorites, with the Islanders playing the role of Katniss Everdeen, attempting to take down the evil Coriolanus Snow, played by the darlings of the NHL media and probability models. The field is wide open and there will be a new champion crowned. Of the remaining eight teams, the most recent Stanley Cup champion was the Boston Bruins in 2011. Three of them have never won (Sharks, Blues and Blue Jackets).
After their first-round sweep of the Penguins, the Islanders have been forced to wait…and wait….and wait. The Carolina Hurricanes finally ended their suffering last night by defeating the Capitals in double overtime to win game seven on the road. New York has their opponent and Friday night they will take the ice for a game for the first time in ten days at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
How they match up: Forwards
The Islanders were led in the first round by Jordan Eberle, who shook off a season-long slump and notched four goals in four games. Mathew Barzal was all over the ice, collecting five assists and terrorizing the Pittsburgh defense. Josh Bailey scored three huge goals and Brock Nelson collected two game-winners. The Islanders are not electric, but they showed incredible resilience and the ability to net BIG goals. They trailed for only five minutes in the four games. Once again, the fourth line was the 'best fourth-line in hockey.' As much as Michael Dal Colle impressed down the stretch, expect zero changes for this group come Friday at 7 p.m. EDT.
Carolina has the dynamic Sebastian Aho, who led the team with 30-53-83 in the regular season and followed that up with 2-3-5 opening round, his first taste of playoff hockey. Teuvo Teravainen showed he thrives with Aho and has improved dramatically over three years with Carolina, finishing with 21-55-76 (3-1-4), by far his best season as a pro. Mr. Game Seven, captain Justin Williams (can you believe he did it again?), keeps his team loose and playing under no added mental duress. They miss Micheal Ferland but got rookie Andrei Svechnikov back. He had 20 goals as a 19-year-old in the regular campaign. Oh, and they have Nino Niederreiter. So, there.
Advantage: If you say Aho is close to or equal to Barzal, and he plays that way, it becomes difficult to say either team has a clear advantage at forward. New York's ridiculous fourth line does give them an edge, however.
Islanders, but ever so slight.
How they match up: Defense
The Islanders only got one goal from the blueline in the opening series, a tally by Nick Leddy, but played incredibly consistent as a six-man unit. They held Sidney Crosby to a single assist and after giving Pittsburgh a little too much of the neutral zone, were quick to clamp down on shooting lanes. They also, remarkably, won the special teams battle, allowing only a single power-play goal. The injury to Johnny Boychuk (he will miss the series) hurts, but Thomas Hickey has shown he can step up and play a big role in important games before. Times are a little different this season, however, as he missed time with a concussion and didn't play much in the second half, but he needs to be steady. Pump Devon Toews into everyone's veins. Save for a couple of slips, he was outstanding in his first playoff test.
Jaccob Slavin? Get to know him. The 6'3, 24-year-old defenseman was very impactful in the first-round upset over the Capitals. After tying his career-high eight goals during the regular season, Slavin had nine assists in the seven games and was all over the ice, averaging 26:59. Bruins castoff Dougie Hamilton hit for a career-high 18 goals and ex-Islander Calvin de Haan is coming off a tough year physically but was terrific in the four games he played in the first round. This is a very underrated, overlooked bunch rounded off by Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce and Trevor van Riemsdyk.
Advantage: Another close call here. With Hamilton and Faulk, the Hurricanes are a little more explosive offensively than the Islanders, but with the emergence of Toews, that balances out in the end. Hickey is the X-factor after missing so much time. Can he replace the steady, veteran influence that Boychuk provides?
Even
How they match up: Goaltending
I've seen the statistics. Thomas Greiss played all four games against the Hurricanes in the regular season and allowed only seven goals, for a .949 save percentage. Robin Lehner allowed only six in sweeping the Penguins, for a .956 save percentage. This isn't the regular season, though, and hardly a time to be playing goaltender carousel. You pick your number one guy and stick with him, barring an outright collapse, which, under Barry Trotz, is not going to happen here. Lehner is his guy, I'd imagine.
Petr Mrazek had his moments in the series win over the Capitals, but overall, is a wild card here. With an average .914 save percentage during the regular season, Mrazek dropped to .899 and had only four quality starts in the seven games. That would seem to point to the fact the Islanders will have their opportunities to break some games open.
Advantage: Anything can happen and Mrazek could suddenly turn into Dominik Hasek, but the clear advantage goes to the Jennings trophy winners here.
Islanders
Head to HeadDate1/8/2019 NYI CAR 4-3 L11/24/2018 NYI CAR 4-1 W10/28/2018 NYI @ CAR 2-1 W10/4/2018 NYI @ CAR 2-1 W OT
Prediction
This series is not going to wow anyone with fancy, offensive fireworks. It's going to be a put on your boots and raincoat and crawl through the mud slugfest. Two teams that play very similar styles in that they like to use defensive transition and counterattacks to fuel their offense. The Islanders are rested but could be rusty early. The Hurricanes could be exhausted, both physically and mentally after last night's marathon game seven. Getting past the offense, defense and goaltending, Trotz is the difference over Rod Brind'Amour and home ice matters.
Islanders in six
