It took about a week, but all the cards have been played in NBA free agency. Nearly everyone is off the market, and we know exactly what the league will look like next year. It doesn't mean, however, that star movement in the NBA is over. The Paul George trade from the Thunder to the Clippers has already prompted rumors that Russell Westbrook will be next to move teams.
After the Knicks missed out on all the stars in free agency, a lot of people have already begun connecting Westbrook to Madison Square Garden. As desperate as the Knicks might be to land a star, not only is the timing wrong, but Westbrook is not the right player on the right contract.
Due to CBA restrictions, it is actually impossible for the Knicks to make a trade for Westbrook until all the players they signed this summer become eligible to be moved on December 15th. It's likely that the Thunder, who just traded Jerami Grant for another first-round pick (they now have 13 in the next seven drafts) will investigate trades before then.
With the salary cap, every trade in the NBA starts with the contracts involved. Westbrook has four years remaining on his deal at $171 million, including $38.5 million in 2019-2020. His contract could end up in the same category as John Wall, Chris Paul and Andrew Wiggins as one of the worst in basketball. Westbrook turns 31 in November and carries multiple knee surgeries in his history while being overly reliant on his athleticism for his production. It all means that his game is unlikely to age well and his recent decline in efficiency does not portend a bright future.
Despite impressive counting stats and averaging a triple-double over the past two years, Westbrook has seen his true shooting percentage drop to 52% in 2017-2018 and then 50% in 2018-2019. He has shot below 30% from behind the arc for two straight seasons, and even his free throw percentage has gone from 84.5% to 73.7% to 65.5%. He is not the same player he was in 2016-2017 when he averaged 31.6 points per game and took home league MVP.
Whether or not Westbrook's playing style lends itself towards winning — especially at this stage of his career — is another question. Despite playing with Paul George the past two years, Westbrook wasn't able to get the Thunder to top 50 wins or out of the first round of the playoffs. Despite his unbelievably high effort level, he is a ball dominant player (34% cumulative usage rate since 2010) that simply isn't efficient enough to help a team win consistently.
The argument for adding someone like Westbrook is that he would help the Knicks attract a second star, but would he be that kind of magnet? Kevin Durant chose to leave Oklahoma City after a reported strained relationship with Westbrook. After signing a long term deal to play with Westbrook, Paul George demanded a trade just one year into that deal. Westbrook might not be as attractive a piece to draw other top players as many think.
The timing for the Knicks is also poor. A player like Westbrook on his contract is the person you add as the final piece to a championship puzzle, not the first. Whether or not the Knicks would have to give up any assets other than short-term deals to acquire him is almost irrelevant. In 2021, he would be taking up more than $40 million in cap space at age 33. The Knicks could add one star to Westbrook, and unless it was a top-five player or one of their young players developed into a star, they would be capped out at something like a 50-win ceiling.
Besides winning the headlines, or making some kind of imaginary point to the Nets about "owning the city," the deal would have no tangible benefit. The team would be no closer to being a championship contender than it would be without Westbrook. Would they become more respectable, and perhaps even a playoff team? Sure. The ultimate goal, however, would still be out of reach.
Despite all the "same old Knicks" talk that has dominated the free agency period, trading for an aging star that would take up so much of the team's salary cap and trap them in mediocrity would be exactly the type of move past regimes would make. It's the exact type of move Scott Perry and Steve Mills should want to avoid.
Schmeelk's Snippets
- The worst thing anyone can do is overreact to what happens in summer league, which is ultimately meaningless when it comes to a player's career. With that said, RJ Barrett has played about as poorly as he possibly could in his first two summer league games. He has shot just 7-33 from the field and is coming off a game with 8 turnovers. All the flaws he showed in college (lack of elite athleticism in terms of wiggle or burst, tunnel vision for the rim and poor shooting) have been on full display in Vegas. What happens in summer league won't have any bearing on the course of his career, but it was an early reminder of how much he has to work on to become a more efficient and well-rounded player.
- Fellow rookie Ignas Brazdeikis, on the other hand, has shown a savvy ability to score. He looks like he might be moving in slow motion, but has been able to get to his spots and finish while showing a good feel for the game.
You can follow me on Twitter here for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports, You should also listen to my Knicks podcast, The Bank Shot. I break down the Knicks free agent moves on my latest episode that you can listen to here. You can also find it on all your favorite podcast platforms, including Apple Podcasts here.
