In the past week or so, there have been written stories and other national discussions about Kristaps Porzingis' future with the New York Knicks. There's unsubstantiated speculation that the Knicks might not offer him a full max contract this offseason and that Porzingis might turn down the Knicks mega-offer and choose the route of unrestricted free agency instead.
I do not claim to be inside Porzingis' head, or have knowledge of what the Knicks plan to offer Porzingis this summer. What I do know, is if Porzingis declines what is sure to be an extremely generous contract offer from the Knicks this summer, even if it isn't the full max, it will be one of the most shortsighted, irresponsible things I have ever seen a professional athlete do in regards to their longtime financial well-being. I will be blunt. It would be incredibly stupid for Porzingis not to sign on the dotted line.
Porzingis is in the fourth year of his rookie contract. This summer he will be a restricted free agent and has two choices. His first choice is to sign whatever extension the Knicks put in front of him. The biggest contract the Knicks could offer is a five-year, $158 million extension that would kick in next season. Even if the Knicks put some protections in the contract for injuries, it will still be very lucrative when compared to his other options.
His second choice is to sign a restricted free agent tender with another team this summer. Another team might decide to try to throw caution to the wind and throw the maximum they could offer at Porzingis, which would be a four-year, $122 million contract. As a restricted free agent, the Knicks have a right to match any offer sheet and they surely would. There is no poison pill that could stop them. Porzingis cannot leave the Knicks this summer unless the Knicks let him. They won't.
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Knowing the Knicks would not let Porzingis walk, other teams would hesitate to make such an offer, since their cap space would be tied up in the days the Knicks are given to decide to either match or decline to match the offer sheet. Porzingis, knowing the Knicks would match, would also be hesitant to sign such an offer sheet, since whatever offer from the Knicks would likely be superior. He would lose money in the end. In other words, option two does not seem feasible.
Porzingis' third option is the one people worry about the most. Porzingis could play the 2019-2020 season on a qualifying offer of only 4.5 million and then hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020. Keep in mind, if Porzingis signs his max-extension he would make over $27 million dollars during the 2020 season. It is a lot of money to hand back, especially when you consider he would make less money on a long-term contract signing with another team than he would with the Knicks in the summer of 2020.
It would also be reckless. Porzingis is coming off a torn ACL and at 7'3 has been no stranger to lower body injuries during his young career. As Porzingis said himself before the season started, there is no playbook for a player of his dimensions to return from an ACL tear. Will he be the same player? Will he be prone to more serious injuries in the future? No one knows, including Porzingis.
If Porzingis chooses to play under a $4.5 million qualifying offer next season, only bad things can happen. If he plays poorly, teams (including the Knicks) might be spooked and hesitate to back up the truck for him with a max contract in 2020. If he suffers another major season-ending injury, or even one that makes him miss 20+ games to the same knee, he might have to settle for a shorter "prove it" style deal. Coming off a torn Achilles tendon, DeMarcus Cousins had to sign a one-year $5.3 million contract.
Porzingis has not gotten his first big contract yet. He is not secure financially in the way other NBA stars are. For him to even think about leaving anywhere near 158 million guaranteed dollars on the table to play on a $4.5 million one-year contract coming off of a torn ACL would be financial malfeasance on a scale that I have never seen before from a professional athlete. No healthy NBA player has ever turned down a max extension off their rookie contract, let alone someone with the uncertainty of recovering from a torn ACL. Porzingis, his family, and his representatives know this.
In this way, Porzingis' knee injury actually makes it more likely he will sign the Knicks extension offer. If he was healthy and coming off a great season, betting on himself by playing on a one-year qualifying offer would be something that was at least feasible. With the dangers of his knee looming it doesn't make any sense at all. It would be an unprecedented risk.
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Even if Porzingis does despise the Knicks organization and wants nothing more than to get out of town (which there is very little evidence of), he could always just demand a trade later, which so many other NBA stars have shown can be an effective way of getting out of situations they don't like. He would get his guaranteed money and would still carry the star power the great NBA players have to control their own destiny.
Knicks fans have a lot of things to worry about, but this is not one of them. Porzingis cannot leave this summer unless the Knicks let him. He is very unlikely to pass on signing the Knicks lucrative extension offer. Barring a trade or something else unimaginable, he will be a Knick for the next five seasons.
You can follow John on Twitter @Schmeelk for everything about the Knicks, Giants and the world of sports. You can also check out his new podcast "The Bank Shot" which you can find here
