In one of the fastest moving trade whirlwinds in NBA history Thursday, the Knicks dealt their franchise cornerstone, Kristaps Porzingis, to the Dallas Mavericks. They used the trade to salary-dump the hefty contracts of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee (and threw in Trey Burke) for Dennis Smith Jr., an unprotected 2021 draft pick, a top-10 protected first-round pick in 2023 (those picks could bump to 2022 and 2024 if the Mavericks end up with a top-five pick in 2019) and the expiring contracts of DeAndre Jordan and Wesley Mathews.
The trade opened up additional salary-cap space for the Knicks to chase two max-level free agents this summer. They were just short of having room for one max player of up to nine years of experience before the trade, but now they can also afford a max-level player such as Kevin Durant, who has 10 years of service time. They could be the only team in the league to have the space that would allow Durant to team up with another max player.
LISTEN: 'The Bank Shot' Knicks Podcast: Reaction To Kristaps Porzingis Trade
Cap space is nice to have, but it provides no guarantees the right players will fill it.
Unless general manager Scott Perry and team president Steve Mills know that two players from the group of Durant, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard or Klay Thompson are coming, it is impossible to argue that they sold low on a player with the high upside of Porzingis, who could have fetched far more in a neutral situation.
This trade, however, was not made in a vacuum. The Knicks had several factors working against them as they tried to figure out how best to determine Porzingis' future with the team. Porzingis' management team and his general unhappiness with the organization seem to be the driving force behind the Knicks' decision to trade him. Mills said Thursday night that Porzingis made clear in their meeting earlier in the day that he "didn't want to be a part of our group."
The Knicks are in the middle of a long-term rebuilding process and trying to grow something from the ground up. That is very hard to do if the team's best player and potential cornerstone is a malcontent who isn't willing to go through some hard times, which were inevitable. Porzingis had to know the Knicks were going to be awful without him this season (everyone else did), making his concerns about the team's direction hard to fathom.
MORE: Knicks Had Been Engaged In Porzingis Trade Talks For Weeks
He knew the team was not going to have a real chance to improve until after this year's draft and free agency period. For him to claim otherwise is disingenuous at best. He robbed Perry, Mills and Fizdale of their opportunity to show him they were on a good path to becoming a winning team. The organization and fans have every right to be angry about that.
It is also possible that Porzingis, who according to the Knicks' front office was showing up to practice less frequently, didn't like what he saw from Fizdale and the culture he was instilling. This is something that should concern Knicks fans as the team loses at a record pace.
Porzingis' long-term health was also likely an overriding concern. Even if he recovers from his torn ACL, he has a long injury history in his legs and missed a lot of games early in his young career. His body type does not lend itself toward a long and healthy NBA career, which was a risk when the Knicks drafted him. (This story from Bleacher Report's Jared Dubin, written before his ACL injury, details some of the challenges and fears around some of those nagging injuries.)
There was a legitimate amount of risk in signing Porzingis to a long-term, guaranteed deal. If he couldn't stay healthy, his contract would have been an albatross hanging around the Knicks' shoulders, dragging them down. Even while Porzingis was everything that embodied the perfect modern NBA center who could shoot the 3 and protect the rim, his body type provided real questions as to whether he would ever reach the apex of his potential.
LISTEN: Boomer Esiason Has Strong Reaction To Porzingis Trade
Porzingis' management team also probably made the decision easier. Janis Porzingis, Kristaps' older brother, is acting as his agent, and there were reports from WFAN's Mike Francesca that he has been very difficult to deal with. Janis' unorthodox methods, evidenced by Porzingis' unconventional personal trainer (see a great story on him from VICE Sports' Robert Silverman), could have been seen as an obstacle to Porzingis' future in New York.
Even with those questions, the Knicks could have tried to force Porzingis' hand. They controlled his rights as an unrestricted free agent this summer, and Porzingis would have either had to sign a huge guaranteed extension with the Knicks worth as much as $150 million or play on a one-year qualifying offer worth a measly $4.4 million.
Unless Porzingis became the first-ever player to turn down a max rookie extension and took an unprecedented and foolish risk of playing on a minuscule one-year deal coming off an ACL injury, he would have been stuck in New York. Maybe the Knicks believed that Porzingis, being guided by his unconventional brother, would have taken such an enormous risk and didn't want to chance losing him as an unrestricted free agent in 2020. It would have been nearly impossible to trade him this summer with Porzingis likely having to agree to a sign-and-trade or with him being granted veto power on any trade if he signed the qualifying offer.
Even now, Porzingis has not committed to signing his rookie extension with the Mavericks despite playing for coach Rick Carlisle and with rookie sensation Luka Doncic. It would explain this quote from Perry: "Considering the uncertainty regarding Kristaps' free agent status and his request today to be traded, we made a trade that we are confident improves the franchise."
If Porzingis signed the long-term extension with the Knicks this summer, he could have requested a trade later, much like Anthony Davis did. It would have also given the Knicks more leverage in future trades with him under a long-term deal. If the Knicks had landed Zion Williamson in the draft or a big-time free agent, Porzingis could have changed his tune and decided to stay. This was the conventional path Porzingis and the Knicks could have taken, and one that would have been best for both parties. Both Porzingis and the Knicks deserve blame for this scenario not playing out. It never should have gotten to this point.
Given the circumstances, however, trading Porzingis now is understandable even with the inherent challenges of finding matching value in return. With his torn ACL preventing him from helping the Mavs this season, no team trying to make a playoff run would be in the trade conversation. That eliminated a lot of potential suitors (Celtics, Raptors, Warriors, Nuggets, Rockets, etc.) and left only teams out of the hunt as options. Those teams would be more hesitant to trade their future assets or young players for the same reasons the Knicks would be seeking them. Maybe this was the best the Knicks could do?
In the end, the Knicks decided that the potential of about $40 million of additional cap space, enough for the chance to sign Durant and another younger max player, was more valuable than Porzingis coming off an ACL injury. The sweeteners of Smith and the first-round picks certainly made the decision a lot easier and may well have pushed the Knicks over the top, but the calculation was the preference for cap space over Porzingis.
Smith is a talented young player, but he still has a lot of deficiencies that prevented the Mavericks from finding a suitor for him when they tried to trade him a couple of weeks ago. His shooting has improved, but he still struggles with his decision making, turns the ball over too much and plays poor defense. He can be a starting point guard in this league.
The two first-round picks are good assets but are probably more valuable in trades than if they are actually used because they're likely to both be out of the top 15 with Doncic and Porzingis in Dallas.
Prioritizing salary-cap space is a huge risk for the Knicks' front office. Unless Mills and Perry learned through (illegal) back channels that a pair of free agents are ready to team up and come to New York, they could wind up signing no one or spending their salary-cap space on secondary players such as Kemba Walker, Tobias Harris or D'Angelo Russell. If that happened, the trade would be an unmitigated disaster. In a lot of ways, this trade is reckless.
If Durant decides to come and brings Leonard or Thompson along, the Knicks would have committed highway robbery. They, in effect, would have traded Porzingis for Kevin Durant, Smith and two first-round picks. It's a big "if." There are no guarantees. What are the real chances this comes to pass? 25 percent? 10 percent? The Knicks right now have very few truly attractive assets that would entice veteran free agents to come to New York unless they land the first overall pick in the draft and select Duke's Williamson.
The Knicks went down this road of free agency in 2010 and missed out on LeBron James before settling on a creaky-kneed Amar'e Stoudemire, who fell apart after a season and killed the team's ability to get better for five seasons. His contract was the reason they could never build around Carmelo Anthony. The risk of free agency is greater than the risk of Porzingis returning from his ACL injury, but do the additional assets the Knicks received make that trade-off worthwhile? The Knicks think they do.
It is wrong to talk about this move in the context of "the same old Knicks." They are not changing their timetable here or rushing their timeline. They are still a rebuilding team. This trade actually added to their assets, with Smith, a talented player on his rookie contract, and two future first-round picks. Even if the Knicks miss out on their free agent targets this summer, they can stick with the youth movement, use their cap space in creative ways to gain more assets and try again in 2020. It would have been no different with Porzingis and room for one max-level free agent.
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical. Mills thought Hardaway was worth a four-year, $72 million contract. The Knicks had to trade Porzingis to erase past mistakes. Perry's draft record in Orlando was not great. The Knicks have not earned the benefit of the doubt. Free agency is out of the team's control and beholden to the desires of the players involved.
It is why you have to wonder if this trade was the best one they could have made. The deal felt very rushed, but the Knicks said they had been exploring it the entire season and had spoken to eight or nine teams about Porzingis in recent weeks. Should the team have prioritized better or young players or draft picks over cap space? Was that deal even available? Could that same cap space have been acquired without moving Porzingis? Only the Knicks know that. I would guess that with a player of Porzingis' potential, the answer is yes.
In all, the Knicks are taking an extremely big risk. What happens this summer could make this trade a disaster or a coup. History has not been on the Knicks' side in situations like this in the past. There is no reason to be confident in their current direction. They got here because Porzingis has acted like a bit of a diva with team management, but also because the Knicks allowed their relationship with their best player to devolve to the point where a trade like this was necessary. These relationships are a two-way street.
The future of the Knicks will be determined this summer. This team could immediately become playoff contenders or be left with nothing even resembling a franchise player on their roster. It is up to Mills and Perry, whose jobs are likely at stake.
These type of years have not gone well for the Knicks in the past, and the entire city hopes this time will be different.
You can follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk or subscribe to his podcast "The Bank Shot"on WFAN.com, RADIO.COM, iTunes, Google Play and Stitcher.
