If your weekly NFL betting strategy for the last five years was to blindly bet the spread for the team featured on that year’s edition of HBO’s “Hard Knocks,” you would’ve had one hell of a five-year run.
Will the New York Jets extend that run?
Since 2018, “Hard Knocks” teams have gone 61-37 (.622) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season:
Lions (2022): 12-5
Cowboys (2021): 13-4
Chargers (2020): 9-7
Rams (2020): 9-7
Raiders (2019): 8-8
Browns (2018): 10-6
While there were profitable ATS seasons before 2018, “Hard Knocks” teams have never had a run like the last five years. Betting success has been a mixed bag since the series began in 2001.
How did those teams fare against the spread the year before and the year after their appearance?
In 11 instances, the team had a worse ATS record 10 times.
For example: The Cowboys went 5-11 in 2020, 13-4 in 2021, and 10-7 in 2022, meaning they had a worse record the year before and the year after their appearance.
Lions: Worse in 2021
Cowboys: Worse in 2020 and 2022
Chargers: Wose in 2019 and 2021
Rams: Better in 2019, worse in 2021
Raiders: Worse in 2018 and 2020
Browns: Worse in 2017 and 2019
In those 11 instances, the teams had a combined ATS record of 79-96-5 (.453)
The Jets went 8-9 against the spread in 2022. They’re currently a 1.5-point underdog against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 NFL odds at BetMGM.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for updated Week 1 odds, sportsbook promos, and more.
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