Courtland Sutton’s 13-yard fourth-quarter touchdown reception pulled the Denver Broncos within seven points during an eventual win over the Chicago Bears in Week 4. It also cashed Broncos’ Over (47) tickets for the third straight week and eighth time in their last nine games.
Before that run began in Week 14 of the 2022 season, the Over was on an eight-game losing streak and hit only nine times in Denver’s previous 37 games.
For years, the Broncos were the most reliable Under team in NFL betting. From the start of the 2015 season until December 2022, the Under was 73-50-2 (.592), the highest rate among all teams.
The Under hasn’t finished below .500 in Broncos’ regular-season games since 2014 (10-6), which capped an equally incredible eight-year run for the Over (76-49-3, .608) from 2007-14.
Nine years later, the Over is rolling again … and it’s rarely close.
The final point total has gone over the closing total by an average of 19.8 points in those eight games since Week 14 of last season.
Only twice has it cleared the total by fewer than 12 points. And the margin has been at least 20 points four times. When the Over was 9-28 in the Broncos’ previous 37 games, the margin was never more than 20 points in any of those nine games.
(The Broncos’ over/under margin of +18.3 points in four games this season is tied with the Miami Dolphins for the highest in the NFL.)
As of Tuesday’s NFL odds at BetMGM , the total is 43.5 for the Denver Broncos’ Week 5 home game against the New York Jets. The Over is 2-2 in Jets’ games this season, most recently hitting (41) in their 23-20 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4.
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