Hi everyone – this is my last Knicks article for WFAN for the foreseeable future. It has been a pleasure sharing my Knicks thoughts with you since 2011. For now, you can still tune into my Knicks podcast, The Bank Shot, if you want to hear my in-depth Knicks thoughts.
Since this is the last time you will be reading me in this space, I thought it would be best to give you a bunch of final thoughts on the Knicks' season, their players, and the franchise's trajectory.
Heeeeeeeeeeeere we go……….
- One note on Thursday's win versus Sacramento: the Knicks did me a solid and let me watch Immanuel Quickley and Frank Ntilikina play together for long stretches on the evening before my last article. It was a pleasure. Here's to a lot more of that the rest of the season. You have to wonder if Tom Thibodeau took note of how much better the team's offense can look without Elfrid Payton and his non-existent jump shot on the floor.
- Aside from Julius Randle (more on him later), Immanuel Quickley is the most important player for the Knicks' future. His ability to shoot threes off the dribble, draw fouls, and hit the floater gives him a very high offensive ceiling. He also defends and is a good enough playmaker. If he is not a long-term NBA starter I would be shocked, and there is All-Star potential there. His shooting is special. If he can improve his passing a bit and get all the way to the rim more frequently, the sky is the limit.
- The Knicks have one of the most valuable assets in the NBA of players not on their rookie contracts, and his name is Julius Randle. He is playing like top-25 NBA player, is only 26 years old, and has the 60th biggest contract in the league. The Knicks control his rights next season on a similar value. He is an All-Star and is the reason the Knicks are as competitive as they are this season.
How the Knicks handle Randle will be interesting. It is an easy decision to play out the season and make a playoff run, but at some point they will have to decide what kind of contract they will be willing to give him after next season. There's no way to know how this season is going to end, so speculating what they might do is pointless. Whatever they decide, however, will be one of the biggest decisions this front office has to make.
The decision will be based upon how far they are from contending, which will depend on the progress of the team's young players and whether or not they are able to acquire a second star to play next to Randle without giving up too many assets. The Knicks, luckily, do not have to make any of these decisions now.
- The Knicks also have a big decision on Mitchell Robinson, who they will have to pay this offseason or next. He is an extremely valuable defensive piece, which has become even more obvious in the last few games since he was injured. The Pacers seem to be disappointed in giving Myles Turner $18 million a year, and Robinson is not the offensive player that Turner is. What is his value, and can the Knicks afford to give him what he would get on the open market? Like with Randle, the Knicks can put off that decision to the summer of 2022. It will be a big offseason for the Knicks to decide how they want to build their team.
- The Knicks might not be ready for the big trade for a star, but this might be the ideal time to make that move, with two potential top 15 picks to trade if both the Mavericks and Knicks finish outside of the top eight in each conference. The Knicks still have a number of players on rookie contracts, like Obi Toppin and Mitchell Robinson, who other teams could find valuable. Randle would also still be under contract if that trade is made in the near future.
If the Knicks wait until after this year's draft, they only have one additional top ten protected pick in future drafts, which will limit the capital they have available to include in a trade. This will, once again, be an essential decision to make for this franchise to make in regards to the pace of their rebuild.
- RJ Barrett has improved in his second year as a decision-maker, passer, defender, and rebounder, even though his shooting hasn't come around yet. He is still very up-and-down offensively but his improvements in other areas have raised his floor as a player. If I had to guess, his most likely outcome is the ultimate helper-player that can do a little bit of everything and be a valuable starter. I don't think he ever becomes a consistent All-Star or someone you give the ball to in order to score at the end of games.
- I still own very valuable property on Frank Ntilikina island and I will not give it up. If the island sinks into the ocean, I am going with it. With his basketball IQ, high-end defense, and improving jump shot, I still think he has a valuable skill-set to offer NBA teams that will help teams win games. It might not happen with the Knicks, but it will happen somewhere.
- I am not a Kevin Knox believer. Sorry everyone. I never saw it and I still don't. His shooting is not good enough to make up for his mediocrity everywhere else. How he outplayed Miles Bridges in the workout before the draft that motivated Steve Mills to draft him, I will never understand. Just imagine Bridges on this Knicks team for a moment, and shed some tears.
- I was not a big fan of the Obi Toppin draft pick. Generally, big men that aren't good defenders have very limited value, but that doesn't mean he still can't be a helpful player. He is a smart player and the mental part of his defensive approach has been solid. The team needs to utilize him better offensively, by using him more as a screener. He can be productive as a roll-man, mid-range jump shooter, or passer on short-rolls. Too often, he is only used as a floor-spacer and his three-point shot range is not up to standard quite yet.
- Brock Aller is going to figure out a way to use the Knicks' remaining cap space, whether in a trade to obtain another player to help the Knicks make a playoff run, or take on a contract in exchange for a draft pick. I would be more interested in acquiring more future assets, if possible.
- The two stars to keep an eye on in a potential trade are Zach LaVine and Bradley Beal. Both are free agents in the summer of 2022 but could be traded beforehand. They are young and extremely talented wings that can score. They fit exactly what the Knicks need, but their cost is the real question. Beal will cost more (three future firsts, a young player and/or pick swaps) but as LaVine continues to play better and the Bulls continue to win games he might become cost-prohibitive too.
- Tom Thibodeau is exactly the coach the Knicks needed. The team plays a smarter and more disciplined brand of basketball. Their effort level is always high and they play inspired defense. Most importantly, he is developing the Knicks' young players. I wonder how much better Mitchell Robinson, Frank Ntilikina, and Kevin Knox would be at this point in their careers if Thibodeau had been coaching them since their rookie seasons.
- This Knicks season can still go in two very different directions. The Eastern Conference has eight teams within three games of each other between the 4th and 12th seeds. There are only three teams with records above .500 in the East. There are five teams within a half game of one another. Even the conference's 13th seed is only three games behind the Knicks.
- The final month of the season features a six-game west coast trip. Atlanta is the worst team the Knicks play in the final month, and they are only a game and a half behind the Knicks in the standings. The Knicks need to build some kind of cushion in the standings before April 5, because the final 22 games of the season will be a very tough slog.
If I had to guess right now, the Knicks will finish with the 11th seed in the Eastern Conference, and the ninth-worst record in the NBA. Their defense is starting to struggle a bit, and Mitchell Robinson is still out another few weeks. The Mavericks will finish with the ninth-best record in the Western Conference, and be the last team in the draft lottery.
- The Knicks franchise is in the best situation they have been in two decades. They are under the salary cap, do not have one bad long-term contract on their ledger, and will be near the top of the league in salary cap space this summer. They have multiple players on their rookie contracts with real upside as two-way players. They have an All-Star entering his prime on a below market level contract. They have five first round picks and six second round picks in the next three years. The opportunities are endless. Now the real work begins.
The future is in the hands of the current front office. Nothing is going to constrain their decision-making, spare their own judgment. Leon Rose and his staff have proven capable of evaluating talent and maximizing the team's assets. They understand how to value players and maintain flexibility to make a run at a true superstar whenever he becomes available. For the team to become a true long-term consistent contender they need another star player and management appears to understand that.
Knicks fans should be excited and optimistic. The franchise is in a good place. They shouldn't get wrapped up in wins and losses the next two and a half months. Player development is much more important, as is adding more good players in the draft at the end of the season. As much fun as making the playoff tournament might be, improving the team's chances of acquiring another star is far more important.
For once, I actually have confidence the team's upper management is capable of pulling this off. Knicks fans should too. It's not going to be easy, but few teams are better positioned than the Knicks to acquire a star in the draft, free agency or via trade in the coming years. The next two seasons should be fun watching young players develop, and provide a ton of intrigue thanks to the opportunities that are bound to reveal themselves for the team to acquire the type of star they need to be a real contender in the playoffs.
I can't wait to see what they do.
Thank you for reading me the past decade. It was a fun ride. Don't forget to check out my Bank Shot Knicks podcast for my continuing coverage of the Knicks. You can listen to the latest episode with Sal Licata here, and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher.
Follow John Schmeelk on Twitter: @Schmeelk
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