When NBA All-Star voting closes on Tuesday night, Julius Randle will not be one of the starters in this year's game. It shouldn't be surprising given that Randle's competition for the three Eastern Conference front court spots includes Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, and Joel Embiid.
Once fan, media, and player voting for the 10 starters is complete, the NBA head coaches have a chance to select the game's reserves. That's where Randle is going to have his chance, though given there are only 12 players on each team, the window to make it in is much smaller than it looks.
I usually don't take All-Star voting or selections all that seriously, but Randle deserves to have his case weighed coming off of a dominant 44-point, nine rebound, five assist performance against the Hawks in one of his team's best wins of the season Monday night. He hit a career-high seven three-pointers.
The case for Julius Randle is simple: he is the offensive engine of a team that is currently the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference and only one game out of being the fourth seed. He is playing good all-around basketball. The Knicks would be a bottom four team in the league without him. His numbers speak for themselves but deserve some context:
1065 minutes: 1st in the NBA
23.1 points per game: 25th in the NBA
11 rebounds per game: 10th in the NBA
5.6 assists per game: 31st in the NBA
.476/.406/.802 shooting
There are some other important advanced numbers to consider, but these are a good baseline to work off of when comparing him to other players.
Here are the players that are, in my opinion, sure things to make the NBA All-Star team in the Eastern Conference, whether via the voting process or selection from the coaches: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Bradley Beal.
Two other players I would not be above keeping off the team for off-court reasons will almost certainly make it anyway based on their ridiculous skillset, production, and reputations. Kyrie Irving went AWOL for more than a week, but his number are impeccable, so he will make the team and it will be deserved. It's the same for James Harden, despite spending part of his season in the Western Conference and trying to play his way out of Houston on and off the court for the first few weeks of the season. We are up to eight players.
This is where things are going to get interesting. Despite only averaging 20.7 points per game, I don't think the coaches will keep Khris Middleton off the All-Star team. He is a good perimeter defender and has turned into the Bucks' go-to player if they need a jump shot late in the game. He is shooting an absurd .510/.444/.900, clearing the 50-40-90 threshold. There are only three spots left.
Trae Young is averaging 25.9 points per game on .417/.364/.883 shooting and is fourth in the NBA with 9.3 assists per game. He drives everything the Hawks do offensively, just as much as Julius Randle does for the Knicks. He leads the league in made free throws. Despite his non-existent defense, I think Trae Young makes the team. Two spots left.
Despite playing on a poor team like the Bulls and playing very little defense, is it possible that NBA coaches keep Zach LaVine off the All-Star team? He is averaging 28.2 points per game on .515/.431/.854 shooting with more than five rebounds and five assists per game. Those are elite and deserving numbers.
I think he makes the team.
There's one spot left, and this is Randle's main competition:
Nikola Vucevic: 23.7 pts, .483/.431/.816 shooting, 11.4 rebounds per game, 0.6 blocks per game. Orlando has been ravaged by COVID issues and injuries this season and they have the fifth-worst record in the league. He is deserving but doesn't carry his team like Randle does, and his team is far worse.
Jerami Grant: 23 pts, .435/.384/.877 shooting, 5.4 rebounds, 1.2 blocks. He is a better defender than Randle but the Pistons are one of the worst teams in the league and the other numbers don't measure up.
Collin Sexton: 22.8 pts, .484/.407/.805 shooting, but his shooting is slowing down and the Cavs can't figure out how to win basketball games.
Gordon Hayward: 22.3 points on .486/.422/.864 shooting with 5.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. This is one of the best players of this group and he plays on a team just as good as the Knicks, but Randle puts up more impressive overall numbers and has to carry a heavier load than Hayward does.
Domantas Sabonis: 21 pts, .523/.354/.703 shooting with 11.4 rebounds, and 5.6 assists. Sabonis is a very good player on a good team and his numbers are close to Randle's, but he does not carry the same burden offensively.
Malcolm Brogdan: 21.2 pts, .438/.378/.904 shooting with 4.7 rebounds and 6.5 rebounds per game. Everyone knows what a good all-around player Brodgan is, but he is missing those take over a game qualities that other guys on this list have.
Tobias Harris: 20.7 pts, .520/.425/.902 with 7.4 rebounds and 3 assists per game. Harris is on an excellent Philly team and is hitting the elusive 50-40-90 threshold. He is also a good defensive player. But he is also the third banana on his team behind Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. This is a dangerous possibility.
Jimmy Butler: 19.9 pts, .441/.136/.858 shooting with 7.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game. Butler could get in on name recognition, reputation, and his defensive prowess. The numbers don't wow at first glance but everyone knows how much he impacts games.
Bam Adebayo: 19.8 pts, .571/.400/.842 shooting with 9.4 rebounds and 5.3 assists. Butler's teammate also has a rightfully stellar reputation around the league. He defends, passes, and is one of the up and coming big men in the league. But the Heat are also under-achieving.
If it wasn't clear before, it should be now what a tough road Julius Randle is going to have to make the All-Star team. He has a fair chance but I would not term it likely, given the high-quality players he will be going against when the coaches fill out their ballots. If I had to guess, the reputations of players like Butler or Adebayo knock him off the team. His best chance might be to make it over someone like Zach LaVine, who is similarly trying to break through the All-Star barrier and plays on a team with a worse record than the Knicks.
For me, Randle is an All-Star. He is carrying a team that is over-achieving and currently a playoff team. He is scoring, rebounding, and passing at a high level, and his defense has ticked up this season. He is hitting three-pointers at a high rate for the first time. Randle is playing All-Star level basketball and his ability to do all of those things makes him a deserving selection. It would also be a good reward for a player whose numbers aren't only fantastic, but is also impacting winning basketball games in a positive way.
Julius Randle, All-Star. Who would have believed it?
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