The Knicks’ season starts on Wednesday night, and it’s what can best be described as a transitional year for the franchise in the first full season with Leon Rose as team president and Tom Thibodeau as head coach. The team chose to spend much of its cap space in the offseason and is going to field a roster with no players over the age of 30 and ten players 23 years old or younger.
The Knicks’ only guaranteed contracts beyond this year are rookie deals, so while Tom Thibodeau will play some veterans like Nerlens Noel, Julius Randle, Alec Burks, and Austin Rivers (when he gets healthy), a lot of minutes are going to go to those 23-and-under players.
Here are 10 questions Knicks fans should be seeking answers for as this season starts – questions that will not only be important for this season, but also the franchise’s long-term future.
1. How good is RJ Barrett?
It’s possible that this question won’t be answered in his second season. If there is no substantial improvement, there’s still a chance it could come later, though it would be less likely. A big jump from Barrett, however, could indicate real potential he could be a future All-Star.
It is all about Barrett’s efficiency, which is linked to his outside shooting and finishing at the rim. If his free throw shooting improves significantly from his 61 percent last year, it would be a good sign his shot is becoming more consistent. Based on his free throw shooting to close out last season and his success in the preseason, this is a realistic expectation. Even if his three-point shooting doesn’t take a big leap, an improvement in his mid-range game would be beneficial. It was good to hear Barrett mention he is trying to move his off-hand placement towards the side of the ball, instead of on top of it, in his shooting form.
An improvement in his finishing at the basket will be a product of whether he can gain more separation on his drives and be more creative at the rim, so he isn’t finishing through contact too much. Seeing whether his decision making and passing can improve will also indicate how much an offense can be run through him as he gets older.
2. Is there is a young point guard on the roster?
Can one of Immanuel Quickley, Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, or Jared Harper show they can be the team’s point guard of the future? The only one fans should hold any optimism for at this point is Quickley, who closed preseason playing so well he might have earned the starting job.
Preseason did not show Dennis Smith Jr. had figured anything out on the offensive end, and it appears Tom Thibodeau sees Ntilikina as more of an off-ball player. Jared Harper lacks the length to be a full-time starter, and if Elfrid Payton is playing a lot of minutes, it means the situation is grim and the Knicks are still in search of their franchise point guard.
3. Is Obi Toppin a foundational piece?
We don’t know whether Toppin’s skills will translate to the NBA. His jump shot was inconsistent in the preseason and he did not show much in the half-court in terms of shot creation. His hips look as stiff as advertised and he is unlikely to be able to guard on the perimeter. His best trait so far this preseason has been his passing, which is strong for a big man. He needs to be a half-court scoring threat the team can go to in order to get a bucket. What’s his go-to offensive move? Does he have one, or does he need to be set up by a high-level point guard? We’ll know more by the end of the season. He has to be a high-level offensive player to make up for his defensive issues.
4. Is Mitchell Robinson a franchise center?
Robinson has all the natural talent and defensive potential in the world to be a perennial All-Defense player, if he can iron out his rough edges and be more consistent. It seems like Thibodeau is the perfect coach for him to accomplish those things. The Knicks can pay Robinson this offseason or pick up his 2021-2022 option, which means he would become an unrestricted free agent in 2022. How much is Mitchell Robinson worth investing in if the team wants to extend him? It’s a question this year will play a huge role in answering.
5. Are Kevin Knox, Dennis Smith Jr., or Frank Ntilikina keepers?
The Knicks picked up Knox’s fourth-year option on his rookie contract over the weekend, showing the lowest possible baseline level of faith in him. Can he make them true believers? Knox has shot well late in the preseason but can he do enough in other areas to give the coaches trust to play him? Can he create his own shot? If he can’t, then he needs to be much better defensively to stay on the court, even if his jump shot becomes closer to league average.
Both Smith Jr. and Ntilikina are free agents at the end of the season and are qualifying offer ($8 million) eligible. I would be surprised to see either extended before the end of the season. Their cap holds are both over 14 million dollars.
Unless Smith Jr. makes an unexpected drastic improvement, I do not see him on the roster next year. There’s something missing with Smith that might be an intangible that he just doesn’t have to offer.
Ntilikina has a shot if he can prove he can be a defensive specialist that can knock down open jump shots consistently. He seems destined for an off-ball defensive specialist role in Thibodeau’s system, which could be a nice role that leads to a long-term career if he can be a consistent catch-and-shoot player.
6. What veterans make it through the season?
The Knicks are going to be active with transactions throughout the season. If the team is out of playoff contention as expected, it would not be surprising to see any of Nerlens Noel, Alec Burks, Austin Rivers, Reggie Bullock, or Elfrid Payton moved in trades for future assets.
The only player that could possibly land a first-round pick in return is Julius Randle, and that is only likely if the Knicks are willing to take a player back that has a contract lasting into the 2021-2022 season. Expect Leon Rose, Scott Perry, and Brock Aller to have expensive phone bills near the trade deadline, which is scheduled for March 25th.
7. How will the Knicks use the rest of their cap space?
The Knicks still have about $18 million worth of cap space to spend over the course of the season. They can use it to help facilitate trades, rent it out for future assets, or keep it in their pocket. If they choose not to use it in a meaningful way, it may indicate that James Dolan is more cash-strapped due to the pandemic than has been previously reported.
8. Where will the Knicks pick in the draft?
It might be depressing, but odds are, during April and May, Knicks fans will be staring at the bottom of the standings trying to figure out how the team can maximize their lottery odds to select any one of the elite players this year’s NBA Draft. Cade Cunningham might be the name most fans know, but players like Jalen Suggs and Jalen Green, among others, could have futures that are just as bright. The Knicks need to land a franchise cornerstone in the 2021 draft, and their main competition for the top pick will be the Cleveland Cavaliers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Detroit Pistons.
9. What’s Leon Rose’s plan?
Rose exercised patience in his first NBA offseason, wisely determining prices for potential free agent targets and not going above and beyond those values to sign them. But we don’t know how patient he will be going forward, and exactly what kind of player he might deem it worth it to trade future assets for. Would Buddy Hield, for example, qualify?
10. The 2021 free agent class
Knicks fans should have already been prepared for a disappointing 2021 free agency, even with the stars that could have become available. Already, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Paul George have signed extensions, removing them from the market. Other players that could be available, such as Kawhi Leonard, are still worth watching, despite the chances they come to New York are slim to none.
