Every year in the NBA, there is at least one prospect taken late in the first round that outplays his draft position and turns into a true impact player. In what can only be considered a minor miracle, it appears as though the Knicks might actually be the team that has found that player from the 2020 Draft, in Immanuel Quickley.
The scouting reports coming out of college indicated Quickley was not a pure point guard, and would struggle to be a shot creator in the NBA. At only 6-foot-3, those two projections put what seemed like a rather hard ceiling on his potential. Those scouting reports appear to be wrong.
Quickley, who played point guard when recruited to Kentucky, has shown he has the necessary handle, athleticism, and playmaking ability to be the initiator of a team's offense. His shot also gives him potential to excel off the ball. His ability to manipulate pick-and-rolls, combined with the seemingly unlimited range on his jump shot, has given him all the shot creation ability he needs.
It appears that Quickley may be following in the footsteps of other Kentucky guards like Devin Booker, Tyler Herro, and Jamal Murray, whose true skillsets were hidden in the team-oriented system under John Calipari. It doesn't mean he is going to be a superstar, but even after just 18 games of his rookie season, it would be a surprise if he was not a good long-term NBA starter.
He should he a starter now. The easiest opinion piece any Knicks writer can write at the moment is that Immanuel Quickley should be starting over Elfrid Payton. The only argument to keep Quickley on the bench is that the second unit would be bereft of scorers with him playing his minutes with the starters. Given Tom Thibodeau's rigid rotations, it is not a better argument than the potential impact he would have on the Knicks starting lineup.
I won't waste much time on the case to start Quickley because it is so obvious. No other four-man combination across the league has played more minutes together this year than the Knicks' consistent starting four of Elfrid Payton, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson. They are being outscored by an average of 3.1 points per 100 possessions, and their 102.4 offensive rating is two points worse than the worst offensive team in the league.
A team cannot win consistently if their most common four-man lineup scores at a league-worst rate. Simply replacing Payton for Quickley has made a huge difference. In a much smaller sample size (48 minutes that come mostly at the end of games) that group has scored more than 9 points more per 100 possessions (which would rank in the middle of the league) and is better defensive by more than four points per 100 possessions. The lineup net rating is a +10.8, versus -3.1 for the one with Payton.
The small sample size raises obvious questions of sustainability, but it makes sense from a basketball perspective. Barrett, Randle, and Robinson are all sub-35% three point shooters and want to score going towards the basket. It becomes difficult for them if defenses do not have to guard Payton and can collapse into the paint. Quickley's presence spreads the floor and makes it easier for his teammates, not even considering his far superior shooting to Payton. Quickley even has a higher assist percentage than Payton.
Who starts would not be a big issue if Tom Thibodeau was willing to stagger his lineup substitutions more, but his insistence on keeping his starters and second unit together makes it important. Once Quickley is on the bench for at least the first eight minutes of the game, it is difficult to get to more than 30 minutes per game, or meaningful time with the other starters. Quickley, despite being the team's best offensive player after Julius Randle, played 30 minutes for the first time against Chicago on Sunday.
The better question remains how good Immanuel Quickley is going to be? Despite playing only 30 minutes once in his career, he already has four games where he has scored 23 points or more. In his last 11 games he is averaging 27.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per 36 minutes on .448/.397/.917 shooting (53.5% EFG and 58.5% TS). He has the 13th highest scoring average in the entire NBA during that stretch, per 36 minutes.
It is a small sample size but there are a lot of reasons to think it can continue. Quickley was a great shooter at Kentucky (43% 3PT as a sophomore) and that has continued in the NBA. His shooting should not come as a surprise, nor should his floater game or ability to draw fouls, which he also showed at Kentucky. His ability to keep defenders on his back in the pick-and-roll is an important skill some players never learn.
The types of shots Quickley is hitting are impressive, and show high-scoring long term potential. So far, 27 of his 29 made threes have come from above the break this season, where he is shooting 36.5% as a rookie (46th percentile). He is 3-for-7 on three-point shots from 30-to-35 feet out, showing his extended range. He is 9-for-19 on three-point shots on pull-ups, and 44 percent of his three point shots above the break have been unassisted.
On shots 4-to-14 feet away from the hoop, which is Quickley's floater range, he is in the 74th percentile of NBA guards, shooting 49 percent on those shots. Being able to make these kind of shots is essential for a guard to be a consistent high-efficiency scorer in the NBA. Quickley has shown, at least so far in his career, the ability to make those shots.
It will be interesting to see how NBA teams adjust to Quickley's game. If they close out hard on his three-point shot, he will have the opportunity to get to his floater. If teams prevent his floater, he will be forced to get all the way to the rim, where he can draw fouls and take advantage of his 94 percent free throw shooting.
Might those adjustments disrupt what he does? Maybe. Historically, off-the-dribble three-point shots are difficult to defend. So are floaters, with defenses designed to stop shots at the rim, not from 6-to-14 feet away. Quickley has also shown a willingness to pass, including throwing accurate lobs to the rim.
Might Quickley simply stop making as many three-pointers and floaters? Absolutely. His time at Kentucky making those shots, however, indicates that his success so far is more likely to be real than fake. He looks like a very good offensive player, which is why he is behind only top overall pick Anthony Edwards in points per game for rookies.
The other parts of his game don't carry any red flags, either. He is big and long enough to defend NBA point guards, and he shows effort on that end. His basketball character by all reports is stellar. He is a hard worker who is willing to pass the ball, and plays with the savvy of a veteran player. He's a slightly older rookie, already 21 years old, but if that is the team's biggest concern, then the Knicks have a very good player on their hands.
It is only a matter of time before Immanuel Quickley enters the starting lineup, even with Tom Thibodeau's stubbornness. Quickley's shooting is the key to unlocking some of the offensive potential of the team's starting lineup. More playing time might also be the key to unlocking Quickley's potential as a future All-Star, or more.
Check out the latest episode of The Bank Shot with Stacy Patton of The Strickland, where we talk about the same topics covered here. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher.
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