The Worst NFL Contracts Entering the 2020 Season

4 years, $52.5 million ($27 million guaranteed)

Earlier in the offseason, I wrote about Bell’s struggles in his first season with the Jets.

The Jets finished second-to-last in points scored, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. They finished dead last in total yards and yards per rush attempt. Bell, who averaged over 1000 yards and 4.3 yards per carry in his five years in Pittsburgh, looked rusty after his year-long holdout and averaged just 3.2 yards per carry. His yardage totals, both on the ground and through the air, were the lowest in a full season since his rookie year.

That blurb came as the introduction to a list of running backs who could find new homes in the 2020 offseason. But because of his terrible contract, Bell was one of the running backs who I predicted would remain with their 2019 teams. The Jets would have a lot of trouble finding any potential suitors willing to take on his contract, one which doesn’t provide any easy outs.

Even if the Jets did want to part ways with Bell after the season, it would be hard to let such a major investment walk for free and they’d still incur a $4 million dead cap hit.

5 years, $81 million ($49.4 million guaranteed)

Cooks’ career in LA was off to a promising start as he recorded 80 catches for 1,204 yards in 2018. But he practically vanished in 2019, as the Rams offense struggled to get off the ground on several occasions and Cooks, despite being paid like the number one receiver on the team, eventually became the fourth-best target on the field.

He was outplayed by Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and even tight end Tyler Higbee down the stretch. The combination of those three receivers will make only $2 million more altogether than Cooks, and he’s set to make top-five receiver money in 2020. Some of the names he’s getting paid more than include Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr.

For the player who ranked at No. 71 in receiving yards throughout the entire league, that’s not a good salary to production ratio.

$3 years, $30 million ($19.95 million guaranteed)

When a team has an abundance of money like the Dolphins had this offseason, you can expect some minor overpayments in order to secure talent. Someone like Byron Jones fits the bill in this department.

However, what the team paid offensive guard Ereck Flowers seems a bit inexplicably excessive. He’s making a top-20 amount among players at his position despite playing for the Giants, the Jaguars and the Redskins the past three years, never producing at a high enough level to warrant any of the organizations keeping them around.

It’s a little bit of a head scratcher that Miami decided to reward him with such a generous paycheck.

5 years, $90 million ($56 million guaranteed)

Flowers is a good but not great defensive lineman. He’s consistently good to rack up around seven sacks per season, doing so last year while forcing a pair of fumbles (FF) and making eight tackles for loss (TFL)  in his first season in Detroit. In fact, that seems to be a pretty reliable stat line year in and year out for the 27 year old.

For the money he’s getting, though, reliably “pretty good” doesn’t quite cut it. Comparing his production with some of the guys making similar money in 2020 demonstrates that fact pretty clearly. Take a look at the following list of defensive linemen, with their 2020 cap hit and their production over the last two seasons:

Trey Flowers ($16.7 million): 14.5 sacks, 5 FF, 17 TFL
Chris Jones ($16.1 million): 24.5 sacks, 3 FF, 27 TFL, 1x Pro Bowl
Dee Ford ($15.8 million): 19.5 sacks, 9 FF, 19 TFL, 1x Pro Bowl

There’s also J.J. Watt, Joey Bosa and Cameron Heyward making less money. For other defensive linemen that may be getting overpaid, like Leonard Williams and Olivier Vernon, their contracts are expiring and/or have an affordable out. However, Flowers is locked into this deal for the foreseeable future. He’s performing at a level where the Lions probably won’t want to release him, but should his production fall much lower, his dead cap weight is much too steep to logistically get rid of him.

4 years, $134 million ($110 million guaranteed)

Is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league and in NFL history… bad? I’m not sure that you can call Goff “bad” per se, but he certainly hasn’t been good recently. His passer rating in 2019, even with a completely stacked crew of receivers, fell flat at 86.5. That number is lower than Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew and a very, very slight notch higher than the one and only Ryan Fitzpatrick.

That’s not the production the Rams need from the player they completely mortgaged their future to lock down.

5 years, $75.25 million ($39.2 million guaranteed)

Opposite the highest-paid cornerback in pro football is the second highest-paid cornerback in pro football. However, after a breakout 2018 Pro Bowl campaign, Xavien Howard’s extremely lucrative contract came with risk. After all, as Pro Football Focus noted, his career was filled with ups and downs, posting a mediocre coverage grade and a high rate of penalties throughout his early years.

In 2019, Howard was placed on injured reserve as a precautionary move after a knee injury was giving him trouble. Though that move seemed smart in order to preserve the health of their long-term investment, more trouble followed after domestic battery charges were brought upon Howard. Though they were eventually dropped, the league could still pin him with a suspension based on the personal conduct policy, according to CBS Sports.

All in all, there’s a lot of risk that comes along with such a hefty contract, and that risk doesn’t even take into account his struggles with consistent production. For an unproven commodity, the Dolphins wagered a huge amount of money.

4 years, $52 million ($26.75 million guaranteed)

The Eagles really want to rebuild their receiving corps and for that reason they’ve been receiving a ton of buzz heading into this year’s receiver-heavy draft. After signing Alshon Jeffery to a big contract back in 2018, though, the Birds probably hoped that they wouldn’t be confronted with this rebuilding situation.

However, amid chemistry issues and constant health problems, Jeffery hasn’t been producing anywhere near what he was accomplishing with the 2017 Super Bowl team. He finished with just 490 yards in an injury-marred 2019 campaign and hasn’t been in sync with the offense since his season-ending drop in the 2018-19 playoffs.

With no easy out in his contract, Jeffery is slated to make top-10 money at the position in 2020 and top-five money in 2021.

3 years, $39 million ($31.8 million guaranteed)

Once a star running back, it may be true that Johnson’s best days are behind him. It also might be that Johnson will bounce back into form. However, the former seems more likely, seeing as he has run for 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry in the two seasons since a major wrist injury. He also dealt with nagging injuries to his back and ankle while trying to hold on to his lead role in Arizona, a responsibility he eventually ceded to Kenyan Drake.

So, all in all, his contract was a burden that the Cardinals were either going to have to accept or waive, which would have cost them a massive chunk of dead cap. That is, until Bill O’Brien and the Texans came along. Johnson keeps his current contract for 2020, earning $11.1 million this season and $9 million in 2021. He’s earning more money next season than Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and others. He’s performing at a higher level than exactly zero of those guys.

What’s more is that even if the Texans wanted to try and test out his ability to bounce back for 2020, they can’t exactly just get rid of him in 2021 without any issues. They’ll still have to incur a $5.1 million dead cap charge if they decide to cut ties with him.

And no, the trade shouldn’t come into play here because it doesn’t have anything to do with Johnson’s individual contract. But how am I not supposed to mention the fact that he was exchanged for DeAndre Hopkins and that the Texans couldn’t even get a second round pick in return? Come on, Bill.

2 years, $68 million ($37.5 million guaranteed)

Big Ben is practically guaranteed to be a Steeler until after the 2021 season. That’s because he’s not practically, but wholly guaranteed a massive amount of money over the next two years that the Steelers just can’t get out of. If they try to cut him now, say in the case that his arm wasn’t progressing or if he was too out of shape, they’ll incur a dead cap charge of $44.5 million dollars. If they try and wait until 2021 to do so, the potential “out” would still make the Steelers waste away $22.5 million.

At age 38 and coming off an injury that could completely derail his career, the only thing that’s not guaranteed is whether or not Big Ben will be able to perform at a level that keeps him as the team’s starter or even allows him to take the field again in his career.

4 years, $94 million ($71 million guaranteed)

Unlike some of the other contracts on this list, the Redskins are at no fault for this one. What happened to Smith is one of the most unfortunate tragedies in NFL history, and yet you still have to consider him lucky. The quarterback claims that he nearly died as a result of the gruesome leg injury that completely halted his NFL career on November 18, 2018.

Still, you have to acknowledge the fact that Smith has earned $55 million the past two seasons and is due to make a whole lot more. His 2020 salary was fully guaranteed as a result of the injury, meaning he will incur a cap hit of $21.4 million on the Redskins this season. Even if the team decides to part ways with him in 2021, which would be an understandable yet upsetting blow, they’ll still need to pay $10.8 million in dead cap.

With his life recently in balance as a result of the leg injury, it’s not unlikely that he will never play again.

2 years, $50 million ($50 million guaranteed), $13.5 million in dead cap for 2020 (NE)

Brady’s split with New England was much bigger than the financial impact that it left behind. However, due to the structure of his contract, the Patriots still have to pay off $13.5 million dollars in his wake. That’s not the way you want to start off your attempt to rebuild an offense, and may hinder the ability for the Patriots to develop in the short term while their defense remains so dangerous.

$13.6 million dead cap hit in 2020 (DEN)

It was a tough break seeing Flacco’s 2019 season end with a neck injury. It’s even tougher that they ultimately ended up releasing him with a failed physical designation. However, the thing that’s probably toughest to stomach is that the Broncos have to pay him a king’s ransom -- $13.6 million, to be exact -- even though he’s no longer a part of the team.

At least Drew Lock showed some promise down the stretch in 2019 and figures to be the regular starter in 2020. Unfortunately, though, there are several areas of the roster that need work, including Lock’s receiving corps, and money that could have been used on that is funneling down the dead cap drain for the next season.

3 years, $24 million ($21 million guaranteed), $18.75 million dead cap hit (JAX)

The Jaguars had a big problem on their hands. An unforeseen quarterback battle emerged between Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew after Foles went down to an injury and Minshew played quite well in his absence. Why was that a problem? Because the Jaguars had just signed Foles and paid him like a superstar.

The initial terms of the contract called for four years, $88 million ($50.1 million guaranteed). In 2019, the Jags paid Foles $30.5 million to play in four games in which he tossed three touchdowns and two interceptions and led the Jaguars to four losses. Not great. What’s worse is that even after trading him to the Bears, who actually have a fairly modest deal in place with the Super Bowl LII MVP, Jacksonville still has to pay $18.75 million to Foles in dead cap space.

The entire roster has been deconstructed, meaning that this massive blow to the team’s cap space isn’t as devastating this season as opposed to how it would affect a team that was a couple pieces away from building a championship roster. Still, the Jaguars made a big mistake, and they’re paying for it.

1 year, $6 million, $20.1 million in dead cap (LAR)

The Falcons made out with a solid prove-it deal for the former Pro Bowl running back. $6 million could prove to be a bargain if the Georgia alum can return to his early career form. But the Rams decision to cut him loose was one that was shocking, among many reasons, due to the fact that they have to watch more than $20 million go down the drain as a result.

With the money that’s already going to guys like Goff and Cooks, such a move was a really interesting one in Los Angeles.

$10.19 million cap hit for 2020 (MIA)

The Dolphins retooled their secondary in a big way heading into the 2020 season, adding Byron Jones from free agency and making him the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history. Xavien Howard, as we mentioned previously, will make a ton of money as well. Yet there’s a third (former) member of the Dolphins secondary who will be paid seven figures for 2020.

Former Pro Bowl safety Reshad Jones, who is no longer on the team, will incur a dead cap hit of over $10 million for the 2020 season. That places him within the top 10 highest-paid safeties on the season. Fortunately, clearing his contract did free up over $5 million in cap space, helping add on to the ridiculous spending budget that the Dolphins had this offseason.