Ah, the Super Bowl. No one enjoys this early February rite of passage more than this guy. I've watched the last five!
This one coming up is historic, and not only because the New England Patriots aren't playing. This Super Bowl is the first one you can legally bet on in Western New York.
Count me in!
No one knows anything, which makes winning a little tougher. The good news there are only two possible right answers for most of these bets. And there are so many ways to be right! Thousands of analysts are out there telling you how, for example, the Kansas City Chiefs will win because of how excellent Patrick Mahomes is. Mahomes is excellent, but if the Chiefs win 13-10 and Mahomes throws three interceptions, those Chiefs tickets will pay out just the same.
I'm committing 200 dollars (RIP "units") to Super Bowl LIV prop bets. I want a mixture of "safer" picks with a couple that could pay big. If I turn my $200 into $300 or more, great. Coming in between $150-$200, good. Less than that, oh well.
I think it's important that these picks have synergy. For the most part, I don't want to be betting against myself. Do the best you can to choose a game script (how the game will go), and find good values within that framework. Be open to possible outcomes that stretch your mind a little. Last year's game was 13-3 and the MVP was a receiver, Julian Edelman. If you see a low-scoring game here, you'll find opportunities to make money by betting on some unders; the total is 54 points, which is high. And while, perhaps, a running back or defensive player would be likeliest to win MVP, as last year shows there can be exceptions.
If I had to guess who wins the game, I'd pick the San Francisco 49ers. The more complete team. The better team all season. Better equipped, in my opinion, to successfully pivot to another approach on offense if needed than Kansas City is. If the Chiefs stop the 49ers' vaunted running game Jimmy Garoppolo and a good receiving corps have shown to be capable. If the 49ers contain Mahomes, the Chiefs don't really run the ball at all. Take the big play away -- like the one to Sammy Watkins in the AFC Championship -- and I think Kansas City is in tough.
With that, let's get going.
The bankroll is $200. I'm using BetOnline for odds unless otherwise specified; it's easier to peruse BetOnline props than what's available online from the local outlets. I'm putting one bet that's decidedly on a Chiefs win outcome; the others on the 49ers plus one halftime show bet.
- First interception thrown: Patrick Mahomes (+160)
49ers rush the quarterback great. A certain plausible game script has Kansas City throwing on every play -- heck, they pretty much do that anyway. Mahomes is a witch but I'm in at this price. Likewise, Mahomes -125 to throw at least one interception. $30 on first interception (to win $48), $37.50 to throw one interception (to win $30). Remaining budget: $132.50.
- Longest carry by Raheem Mostert over 18.5 yards: +105
The San Francisco rushing attack has me sucked in. Mostert was dancing untouched through the second and third levels of the Packers' defense. Can he break one run in this game for at least 19 yards? I believe so. $20 on over (to win $21). Remaining: $112.50.
- First reception by Travis Kelce under 10.5 yards: +100
They do throw to him short and this is another bet on the Niners defense. $15 on under (to win $15). Remaining: $97.50.
- 49ers to lead at halftime by 7-9 points: +900
- 49ers to lead at halftime by 10-12 points: +1100
Well I can't win 'em all if I bet both of these. But I like a game in this range, and the prices here are great. Interesting that the 49ers to lead by 13 or more is +475. The two lowest payouts in this category are that and, similarly, a Chiefs lead of 13 or more at the half (+375). San Francisco 7-9 at half, $10 (to win $90); San Francisco 10-12 at half, $10 (to win $110). Remaining: $77.50.
- Either Shakira or Jennifer Lopez to Have Side Boob: No (-180)
This bet is solely in case I end up at a party and can espouse the greatness of prop bets by claiming I have action on this. From BetOnline: "Must clearly show skin of side boob during performance. Book manager's decision is final." It is written! Gotta love the Super Bowl. $18 on no (to win $10). Remaining: $59.50.
- Times they show Mike Shanahan: Over 1.5 (-130)
Obligatory early shot if the 49ers' coach's father sitting in the suite, and give me (at least) one more near the end if San Francisco is about to win, or even if it's close. $26 on over (to win $20). Remaining: $33.50.
- Super Bowl LIV MVP: Patrick Mahomes (+120)
Just to cover myself; if the Chiefs win I think the MVP almost definitely will be Mahomes. $20 (to win $24). Remaining: $13.50.
- Super Bowl LIV MVP: Deebo Samuel (+3300)
What the heck. He's good and he even gets rushes here and there. Breaks a big play or two, most of the other skill guys production is fairly evenly distributed making for a tough decision, the 49ers win the game .. give me the explosive Samuel. $13.50 (to win $445.50).
Having now written this, which basically has amounted to research for the game, I'll probably make a money-line bet on San Francisco. I'd be bummed if I lose big here, but I'd be equally as annoyed if I nailed this game and didn't cash in nicely. Never bet beyond your means and you'll know what I mean.
Good luck, and keep it clean Shakira and J-Lo. Kids are watching! Think of the children!
