With a win on Sunday, the Buffalo Bills will host the AFC Championship Game next weekend against the Cincinnati Bengals at Highmark Stadium. A loss and their season ends.
Here are my three keys to the game for the Bills to beat the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium:
1.) Josh Allen
Whether it’s running or throwing, it goes without saying that Allen is the key and most important player in the entire game for the Bills.
Allen threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns, while running for 59 yards and another score back in the two teams’ Week 5 matchup. He was sensational in the Bills' 47-17 AFC Wild Card Round win over the New England Patriots last week in Orchard Park.
The 25-year-old may have to, once again, be in this matchup if the Bills are to host to their first AFC Championship Game since the 1993 season.
2.) The run game
As wild as it may sound with Allen and Patrick Mahomes as the two starting quarterbacks, the team that runs the ball better in this game - especially if they can really control the game with their running game - will have a great shot to win.
The Bills have averaged over 163 yards rushing per-game over their past six contests, including last week’s playoff game. However, they've also had several moments this year when they could not stop the other team from running the ball and it has cost them.
They'll have opportunities to run it against a Chiefs defense that ranked 31st in the league this year, giving up an average of 4.77 yards per-run.
However, Kansas City has also run the ball very efficiently on offense, finishing seventh in the league with 4.54 yards per-carry.
Look for both teams to try to control the game on the ground to open up the passing game.
3.) Tackle!
Mahomes threw 37 touchdown passes this year. Another outstanding season for him. However, he was also aided by a great group of pass catchers who capitalized on running with the ball after they caught it.
Mahomes ranked second in the NFL amongst all qualifying quarterbacks with a 6.18 yards after catch average from his receivers. Mahomes has been taking what the defense gives him, getting the ball to his playmakers and allowing them to make plays in space.
It's going to be vitally important that Bills defenders come up and make tackles on Chiefs receivers, not allowing them to break free for big gains.
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