Foxborough, Massachusetts (WGR550) - The Buffalo Bills will look to avenge their Week 5 loss to the Patriots when they visit them in New England Sunday, and in the process, prevent their AFC East rival from snatching the division title away from Buffalo for the first time in six seasons. In order to do that, here are my three keys to the game, plus notes and stats:
KEYS
Test the Patriots run defense
The last time these two teams played, New England allowed the Bills just 4.1 yards per carry on 29 running plays. They’ve been one of the best run-stoping teams in the NFL all season. But since losing defensive tackle Milton Williams in Week 11 due to a high ankle sprain, teams have had much more success against New England on the ground. Including that contest, the Patriots have given up over 5.1 yards per carry in three of their last four games.
The Bills have the top rushing attack in the league, averaging 157.8 yards a game and 5.08 per play. This sets up to be a game where the Bills will want to, and may be able to, run the ball quite a bit and possibly much more effectively than their previous matchup.
Prevent the big play
The Patriots love throwing the ball deep, and they make a ton of plays doing it. Quarterback Drake Maye is second in the NFL in average yards per pass (8.84), average depth off target per pass (8.77), and average depth of target per completion (7.41). New England is second (behind the Bills and Los Angeles Rams) with 49 passing plays resulting in 40-or-more-yard gains. The Bills defense has been excellent at preventing explosive plays through the air, allowing just one of 40-yards or more, the lowest number in the league, and just 34 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks ninth. That will need to continue Sunday.
Win the turnover battle
When New England won in Orchard Park in October, they took advantage of three Bills turnovers, including one in the Bills own red zone and another in the Patriots red zone as the Bills were threatening to score. The Bills took the ball away just once that game. The Bills have lost the turnover battle five times this season and lost four of those games. The Patriots have been on the wrong end of turnover differential three times this season, losing one of those contests, when they gave it away four times to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. Whoever gives the ball away more than the other team in this one will have a great shot at winning the game.
NOTES AND STATS
