Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) - Christmas is within a week, there’s snow on the ground (finally) and we’re close enough to the end of the NFL season to hone in on who-needs-what scenarios for each team’s playoff hopes. Or are we?
Week 15 came to a close with no AFC team having clinched its division, and 12 of 16 teams are still in the postseason mix. The Buffalo Bills sit a middling ninth – not exactly the stuff of a preseason conference favorite.
Only ninth, but far from dead.
The AFC East picture is fairly clear. The Miami Dolphins have a two-game edge over the Bills with three to go. Buffalo would win the crown if tied, as the only path to a division title for the Bills includes a Week 18 win at Miami, and thus a season sweep of the Dolphins.
Miami has games remaining with the Dallas Cowboys and a Baltimore Ravens first, while the Bills meet the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots. A (fourth-straight) division title for the Bills is possible (+200 at BetMGM), but a Wild Card berth is more likely.
Seven teams sit between 9-5 and 7-7, including the Bills at 8-6.
Here’s a closer look at the other Wild Card candidates:
Cleveland Browns: 9-5
Somewhat incredibly, the Browns lead the Wild Card race at present, despite having started four different quarterbacks this season. (Minnesota currently sits in an NFC playoff spot while sharing this distinction.)
It’s now the Joe Flacco Show now, having come off the proverbial couch
to sling the Browns into the first Wild Card position.
You’ll see a lot of this in what’s left on the schedule.
The Browns have, what can modestly be described as, three winnable games: at Houston Texans (+2.5), home to the already-eliminated New York Jets next Thursday night, and at Cincinnati Bengals.
According to the New York Times Playoff Machine, even only one win would almost guarantee the Browns a slot – especially if it comes against fellow contenders like the Texans or Bengals.
Cincinnati Bengals: 8-6
Four teams sit with an 8-6 record, with the Bengals leading the pack on tiebreakers – largely on the backs of having wins over Indianapolis and Buffalo.
Cincinnati (-2.5) goes to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers this week, then it’s at the Kansas City Chiefs and home to the Browns.
They’re in a playoff spot now, but the Bengals may need to win out. According to NYT, a loss to Pittsburgh and the Bengals’ odds would plummet to near 10%.
If Cincinnati splits its next two games and the Browns win their next two, the possibility would exist where the Bengals play a win-and-in Week 18 game against a Cleveland team that already would have clinched.
Indianapolis Colts: 8-6
The AFC South is where it gets complicated.
The Colts share the division lead with Houston and Jacksonville , but will need to finish ahead of the Jaguars in the standings to have a chance at the title, because they lost both meetings.
Still, the Colts are alive for a Wild Card – partly because of their relatively friendly remaining schedule.
Indianapolis (-2) is at Atlanta to play the Falcons this week, then it’s home games to the Las Vegas Raiders and Texans.
A win this week would help, but the Colts probably won’t need it if they’re able to beat Las Vegas and Houston. NYT puts them in the 97% range with just those two wins.
Houston Texans: 8-6
Massive game Sunday for the Texans, as they host Cleveland.
A loss here and Houston, even with two successive wins, will still need help. A win here, however, and a win in the finale against Indianapolis makes the Texans a near playoff lock.
Between games with the Browns and Colts, Houston hosts the Tennessee Titans in a rematch of a Week 15 game that went to overtime.
There’s a pretty fair chance that Week 18’s Texans-Colts game will earn the winner a playoff spot, while the loser likely would be out.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-6
The Jaguars’ sweep of the Colts is a big advantage for them in their playoff outlook.
Their division matchup in Week 18 is at Tennessee. A win in either of their next two games (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then home to the Carolina Panthers), plus a win in Nashville will see Jacksonville’s playoff odds, according to NYT, in the mid-90s.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-7
So it goes when there’s this level of traffic in the playoff race: The Steelers are but a game out, but according to NYT, their playoff odds sit in the lonely single digits.
Winning out – Cincinnati, at Seattle Seahwaks, at Baltimore – and Pittsburgh’s odds ascend to the 75% range. Pittsburgh might enjoy the benefit of a Ravens team resting stars in the event of having clinched the 1-seed.
Denver Broncos: 7-7
Similar to Pittsburgh, three wins to end the season lift Denver’s playoff odds to about 75%.
The Broncos do have a good chance to be favored in each remaining game: New England Patriots (-6.5), home to the Chargers and at Las Vegas.
Denver almost definitely cannot afford a single loss.
So, where does all this leave Buffalo at 8-6?
Sure, there’s the potential for an AFC East title. If Miami wins its next two games, though, the Bills, even with two wins of their own, very well may still need a Week 18 win over the Dolphins to get in as a Wild Card. (This also presents as a situation where Miami could rest top players.)
According to NYT, in this scenario - both the Bills and Dolphins winning the next two weeks - the Bills would be about 50-50 to make the playoffs if they were to lose in Miami. In this scenario, you’d want for the Bills to be lucky enough to avoid tiebreaker scenarios with Jacksonville, Cincinnati and Denver, all of whom have beaten Buffalo.
