One year ago the Buffalo Bills(13-4) and Denver Broncos (10-7)met in the NFL playoffs. The Bills, a two seed, hosted the Broncos, a seven seed, in the wild card round. The Bills won handily 31-7.
The two will meet again on Saturday afternoon, this time in the divisional round, but the roles are reversed. The Broncos(14-3) are the top seed in the AFC while the Bills(12-5) are the sixth seed.
On offense, the Broncos are led by second year quarterback Bo Nix. He passed for 3,931 yards this season and had 25 touchdowns to go with 11 interceptions. The Bills have to be ready to stop Nix's legs too. He totaled 356 yards rushing and five more touchdowns.
Nix is actually the second leading rusher since the injury to top running back JK Dobbins. The top back is now RJ Harvey whose 3.7 yards per carry average isn't impressive but Harvey had a number of explosive runs and did reach the end zone seven times. Denver will probably use Jaleel McLaughlin as well. His role has increased since the Dobbins injury and McLaughlin has a very strong 5.1 yards per carry average.
The top threat in the passing game is wide receiver Courtland Sutton. He leads the Broncos in catches (74) and yards (1,017). Sutton has seven TD's and recorded 17 explosive catches (20+ yards). Tony Franklin is next with 65 receptions, 709 yards and six TD's. Tight end Evan Engram, who had a disappointing season, is third with 50 catches and 461 yards.
The Broncos had 37 drops which was second most in the NFL.
Denver's offense was just 14th in scoring, 16th in rushing yards per game and 11th in passing yards. They were 11th in third down efficiency and 13th in red zone touchdown percentage. The offense also struggled at the end of the regular season. While fighting for the one seed they scored just 59 points over their last three games.
The strength of the Broncos and the biggest reason why they had the best record in the AFC is their defense. They are top five in most of the statistical categories. The Broncos gave up the third fewest points, were second best against the run and seventh in pass defense. They led the league in sacks and set a franchise record with 68. Denver was also second in third down efficiency and had the best red zone defense in the league. They will go up against a Bills offense that was the third best in the red zone.
Linebacker Alex Singleton (135) and safety Talanoa Hufanga (106) were the top two in tackles and the only players who had more than 100 tackles on the season.
Denver set a franchise record in sacks because they have multiple top notch pass rushers. Lineback Nik Bonitto, who had a 22% pass rush win rate, recorded a team leading 14 sacks but he had plenty of help. Linebacker Jonathan Cooper (8), as well as defensive ends John Franklin-Myers (7.5) and Zach Allen (7) are also adept at bringing down the quarterback.
The one thing the Broncos defense didn't excel in was interceptions. They had 10 in the regular season. But the Broncos do have one of the NFL's best cornerbacks in Pat Surtain II who had 12 passes defended and one pick. Fellow corner Riley Moss broke up a team leading 19 passes and was third on the team in tackles.
On special teams, Denver has a speedster returning punts in Marvin Mims Jr. He averaged 15.6 yards a return and had one touchdown. Denver was ranked fourth in punt returns. One area the Bills might be able to exploit is the kick return game. The Broncos were just 26th in kick coverage.
Place kicker Will Lutz connected on all 39 of his extra point attempts. As for field goal attempts, Lutz was 21-21 under 40 yards. He was 3-5 from 40 to 49 yards and 4-6 from 50+.
Broncos notes:
* Nix is the king of the fourth quarter. He recorded five fourth quarter comeback wins and his total of eight since the start of last season is the most in the NFL.
* Denver outscored their opponents by 25 points over the first three quarters but their point differential in the fourth quarter was +64.
* Denver went 11-2 in one score games and have won each of the last 10 one score contests.
* The Broncos have won 13 of their last 14 games. The only loss was at home to Jacksonville in week 16.
* Denver gave up an average of just 17 points at home.
* Denver has won 14 of their last 16 home games going back to last season.