Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR Sports Radio 550) - Think back to the 2023 NFL season. The Houston Texans, led by a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud, surprised many by winning the AFC South with a 10-7 record. The Texans beat Cleveland in the Wild Card round and then lost to the Baltimore Ravens the following weekend.
Going into the 2024 season, Houston was a trendy pick to join the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs as AFC contenders. But 2024 didn’t play out that way.
Once again, the Texans went 10-7 and won the AFC South. And once again, the Texans won their Wild Card game and lost in the Divisional Round, this time to the Chiefs.
Instead of taking the next step here in 2025, Houston has gone backwards.
The 5-5 Texans are in third place in their division behind 8-2 Indianapolis and 6-4 Jacksonville. Stroud and the offense have really struggled. Stroud won’t even be able to play against the Bills on Thursday night. He will miss a third straight game due to a concussion. But, as crazy as it might sound, that might help the Texans who have won back to back games with Davis Mills at quarterback. Mills has thrown for 566 yards and three touchdowns in wins over Jacksonville and Tennessee. In the win over the Jags, Mills keyed a comeback from a 19 point deficit.
The Texans running game has been below average but the Bills run defense has left much to be desired this season. Nick Chubb (99 carries for 419 yards) and Woody Marks (99 carries for 348 yards) will face a Bills run defense that is 31st in both rushing yards per game and yards per carry. Three Bills opponents have gained more than 200 yards on the ground with Tampa Bay being the most recent to accomplish that feat. Houston is ranked 23rd in yards per game and 22nd in yards per carry.
The top receiver is Nico Collins. He has a team high 82 targets but a catch rate of just 60%, his lowest since 2022. Collins is second on the team in receptions (49), first in yards (642) and first in touchdown catches (4). Bills cornerback Christian Benford, who did a terrific job shadowing Tampa’s standout receiver Emeka Egbuka, might be given the same task against Collins. Houston used second and third round picks on receivers in last April’s draft. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have combined for 42 catches, 465 yards and four TD’s. The other big threat in the passing game, in addition to Collins, is tight end Dalton Schultz. His 51 receptions lead the team and his 489 yards are second to Collins. Schultz leads the team in yards after catch with 227.
Houston’s offense is ranked 21st in scoring. They’re averaging 22 points a game but have been held to 20 or fewer points in six of their 10 games. The Texans are 19th in total yards per game, 16th in passing yards and just 26th in third down efficiency.
Houston’s defense is a different story. That group is why the Texans are still in the hunt in the AFC playoff race. The Texans are on top of the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of just 16 points a game. Of course, they will be facing the league’s fourth best scoring offense in Josh Allen and the Bills. That dominant Houston defense starts up front with ends Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Anderson, who has a sack in five straight games, took down Titans quarterback Cam Ward three times in last Sunday’s win. Anderson has eight sacks for the season which is one behind his fellow end Hunter. Anderson also has 12 tackles for loss, two passes defended, three forced fumbles and a pair of fumble recoveries.
The Texans also boast a very strong linebacking group led by Azeez Al-Shaair in the middle. He leads the team in tackles and forms a dangerous pairing with Henry To’To’o. The secondary has lost a couple of key players to injuries. Safety Shemar Stewart is out for the season and safety Jalen Pitre, who is tied for the team lead in interceptions with three, remains in concussion protocol. Cornerback Derek Stingley also has three picks on the season.
Houston’s defense is ranked third in the league both against the run and the pass. Opposing quarterbacks have the second lowest completion percentage against them and have thrown the fourth highest percentage of interceptions. The Texans are second best in first downs per game and third in third down efficiency. Opponents have been held to 20 points or less in eight of the ten games. Only Jacksonville (29) and Seattle (27) have broken that 20 point mark.
Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn, who missed the last two games with an injury, is expected back for this game. You might remember it was Fairbairn’s walk off 59 yard field goal that beat the Bills in Houston last season. Fairbairn is 22-25 on field goal attempts this season including 5-8 from 50+ yards. He is a perfect 12-12 on extra point attempts.
Texans notes:
- Every game is critical for Houston. They currently have a 24% chance of making the playoffs.
- Houston opened the season with three straight losses (Rams, Bucs, Jaguars) but are 5-2 since with their best wins coming over San Francisco and Jacksonville.
- Seven of their 10 games have been decided by one score. They lost the first five but have won the last two.
- The Texans are 7-5 all time against the Bills including a playoff win in the 2019 season.
- The Texans have won the last five games at home against the Bills